1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Beaches-East York

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Bill Buckingham
Progressive Conservative Party:
Judy Burns
New Democratic Party:
Frances Lankin MPP
Green Party:
Michael Schulman
Natural Law Party:
Donalda Fredeen
Family Coalition Party:
Dan Largy
Independent Party:
Steve Rutchinski

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Beaches Woodbine (95%):
Frances Lankin
Don Mills (39%)
Hon. David Johnson
York East (41%):
John Parker

Member of Parliament:
Maria Minna

Surrounding Ridings:
Broadview-Greenwood
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Scarborough Southwest

Misc:
Population: 104 346
Avg Household Income 48 723
Language (Home)
English 85 840
Chinese 5 295
Submitted Information
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02/24/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
I was in this riding a while ago, and it seems obvious that Francis Lankin will take it, despite getting some Tory polls. She's easily one of Toronto's most popular politicans.
03/12/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Hypothetically, the Lankin camp has reason to fear, and not just because of poor NDP polls; the 1995 results within new boundaries toss Beaches-East York into the PC column. However, much of that is due to the landslide advantage former East York mayor Dave Johnson held in his home turf--but he's running elsewhere this time, and besides, this was traditionally the strongest NDP part of his old riding. And whatever her party's fate, Lankin's the candidate the smart-money anti-Harris forces shall be supporting. Besides, if East York is unfamiliar turf for her, she can count on the support of someone who's now probably a far more popular local political figure than Dave Johnson--his mayoral successor, and an NDPer to boot, councillor Michael Prue.
04/26/99 D.Cavaco Email:
Yes we all know that Lankin appears to be unbeatable but stranger things have happen. Bill Buckingham the Liberal candidate will defintely do better than previous Grits in past elections. Given his past experience as a former East York Councillor, his contacts to the Danforth business community, and his congeniality,the ingredients are in place for a squeker of an upset if everything goes right. If Dalton shines many Liberal candidates will benefit in close races. Lankin will not benefit with the redistribution of the riding which now includes strong Tory pockets of Don Mills and York East whose votes may tilt towards the Grits because of the government record on healthcare and education. Lankin's foothold on the southern Beaches may dissipate with the changing demographics of the riding. This will a lot closer than many pundits think. Bill Buckingham is one of the best all-round candidates that the Liberals have put here in decades.
05/01/99 A. Email:
Lankin is very popular in the riding, including the "new" (East York) part. Remember that it was Lankin who pushed successfully for East York to get a third member on the Megacity council. In the southern part of the riding, Lankin's machine was largely responsible for the election of Sandra Bussin, who beat two powerful incumbents to become the only rookie member of the Megacity council. Even a lot of Tom Jakobek's supporters vote for Lankin.
05/09/99 P. Kasman Email:
Though riding distribution has not greatly helped Francis Lankin, she has all ready done a great deal to gain support in the new and previously Conservative East York. She began campaining weeks before the election, and hundreds of signs were ericted within hours of the election call. Through in her status as a popular and well spoken regular on CBC debates and her experiance as former health minister in the Rae government and youve got a solid victory for Lankin.
05/08/99 Gail Nyberg Email: gail.nyberg@tdsb.on.ca
Frances should win quite handily. She has bee visable in the new part East York from day one of the boundary changes. Almost an East Yorker!
05/12/99 BackBlast Email: backblast@home.com
I think it won't be the margin of victory that Frances has enjoyed in the past. But that she will still win the seat. On my way home taking the Mortimer bus from Main St. to Woodbine I decided to count the signs my totals were 23 Frances Lankin signs, 6 Liberal signs and 1 Tory sign (that was on a side street). As far as the Sign war is concerned Frances has that one wrapped up HANDILY.
05/13/99 GBR Email: lizgary@connection.com
No contest. Lankin by a landslide. She's as popular as any MPP in the province, Metro loves her, the Tory who shares the gerrymandered riding (the "honourable" Dave Johnson) bailed out, his replacement is unknown "cannon fodder" (actually named Judy Burns "who?"). Buckingham (the Grit) will garner some support in the north end of the riding, but there's not a prayer of his breaking the core support Lankin has here. Her anti-megacity credentials are impeccable, and her orgainzation is tight as a drumhead.
05/28/99 P. Kasman Email:
After reviewing the situation I again say that Lankin will win by a massive LANDSLIDE. The tory is inexperienced and does not even know many tory policies. She is a pathetic excuse for cannon fodder.
06/02/99 P. Kasman Email:
This will probably by my last entry so I will write it about my home riding. Francis will win because she is the best candidate and is at 59% n the polls.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan