Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Saint John

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Paul Zed
Canadian Alliance:
Peter Touchbourne
Progressive Conservative Party:
Elsie Wayne
New Democratic Party:
Rod Hill
Natural Law Party:
Miville Coture
Green Party:
Vern Garnett
Marijuana Party:
Jim Wood

Elsie Wayne

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 Matt Email:
Former Mayor Elsie Wayne is one of the most Enenrgy Filled MP's on the hill. In 93 when the Conservatives almost lost all MP's, the people of Saint John sent Elsie to Ottawa to represent them. In 1997, Elsie won the riding of Saint John by 17000 votes! She will be a shoe in this time and will be a major indicator of how the PC's do in Atlantic Canada.
11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Elsie has this seat as long as she wants it. She is held in wide esteem, and loved, by members of other parties -- and not just Tories. This seat was the cornerstone of the Tories' return in Atlantic Canada
11/10/00 L.O. Email:
If she didn't go down in 1993 - I doubt she's going down in 2000. Elsie Wayne got a lot of positive press on Veterans and ship building issues between 1997 and 1999. it was all over local papers.
18/10/00 A.S. Email:>
She's the A to the Liberals' Zed.
24/10/00 Peter J.
If the Tories lose this one they are done like dinner. Elsie Wayne is the most loved politician on the Right in Canada. I only wish she was a member of the Alliance.
26/10/00 J.P. Kirby EMAIL:
The Liberals have nominated Paul Zed, who represented Fundy-Royal from 1993-97. Elsie Wayne and Zed have been going after each other already. Zed, a semi-popular MP in his Fundy-Royal days, might steal some votes from Wayne, but it's still the Tories' to lose.
01/11/00 J Email:
Elsie will hold this seat for the Tories, but not by the lopsided margin that she won with in '97. The people of Saint John love Elsie and would re-elect her if she was running under any party banner. Her victory will not be a Tory victory, but an Elsie victory. The Tories are lucky to have her. Also if the national and regional Atlantic polls don't change soon, she'll be the only Tory re-elected on election night. It will be a near total wipe-out.
01/11/00 Chris Chmelyk
Unless something miraculous happens to save the Tories, this may be their only seat in the country. But at least Elsie has a hold on Saint JOhn
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The Tories now trail the Alliance in New Brunswick, and both of them are 40(!!) points back of the Liberals. No one not wearing a red tie is safe here.
04/11/00 Stock
Elsie has never lost an election (for council, mayor or MP) and never will as long as she runs in Saint John. She could run for the Natural Law Party and still probably cruise to victory. An organized anybody-but-Elsie campaign (they are taking ads out in the local media) and a tougher challenger in Irving relative Paul Zed may give Elsie a challenge but the riding is hers to lose.
06/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
Rod Gillis is stabbing Elsie Wayne in the back. Nobody does this better than Saint John politicos looking for attention. Given the Tory infighting this one will be close. Very very close. Look for Elsie to win by about 500 votes, unless the Liberal's can capitalize on the Tory squabble.
06/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Elsie in a landslide. She's the horniest woman in the House of Commons, after all.
15/11/00 JK
Generally speaking, Atlantic Canadians vote along old party lines with swing voters voting pragmatically in favour of who is likely to form the government. The last federal election was a surprising exception, with a number of Atlantic ridings voting liberals out on principle, choosing either PC or NDP as alternatives. It is the closest thing to a revolution that you might ever see in Atlantic Canada. It will be interesting to see if we continue to stick to our guns in this election, or go back to our pragmatic ways after the well deserved punishment we have received. I'm not sure if any of this matters in Saint John, however. A lot of us just vote for Elsie without really saying why, perhaps our own quiet revolution. "Damn all motives - ulterior ones, and others."
14/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The Liberals may be way ahead province-wide, but in a National Post story, they admitted that their internal polls show Elsie winning.
17/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
This one is turning over. Paul Zed has momentum, not because of Paul Zed but because Saint John is tired of being in opposition. The fact that the ship-workers union came out in support of Zed would indicate a wholesale abandonment of the NDP vote to the Liberals and the PC infighting can only be good news to those Grits left out in the cold for so long. I have changed my opinion and think that the Liberals will win by a margin of less than 500.
18/11/00 B. Cormier
My gut feeling is that Elsie's term is over. People love her... but are they willing to go four more years with an MP who is virtually powerless? For heaven's sakes, she may even be in a party which will not even have official party status. Saint John's economy needs a strong MP, and although Elsie may yell the loudest, it doesn't mean she can get the job done. I think there's a wave of discontent and that people may feel that Elsie has had her chance. With the shipyard doing downhill, some people may think it's time for new blood in Saint John. I don't think Paul Zed is well liked in the community -- hell, people are even saying he's "hated", but Saint John'ers aren't being asked to invite him over for Christmas dinner... they're being asked who would be the most effective MP. I just have a feeling that there is a silent wave of discontent in Saint John which could send Elsie packing on election night. Of course, I wouldn't bet a penny on my prediction, but it wouldn't shock me if she lost.
19/11/00 JaneyCanuck Email:
Despite the last two comments, this riding will definitely be Tory with Elsie winning handily (contrary to what I originally thought). The Telegraph-Journal published a poll on Friday that showed Elsie with 41% and Paul Zed with 16%. Noteworthy is that among poll respondents, many admitted to be Liberal supporters generally so despite a skewed sample, Elsie still did extremely well. She will certainly get much more than 50 per cent.
20/11/00 Mike D
Even if all other Tory seats were lost, Elsie Wayne would survive. Remember 93? And the Tories are not about to get wiped out. Within Atlantic Canada, their support is efficiently concentrated enough to save most of their seats. And anyone who thinks NDPers in St. John would turn to Zed before Wayne is dreaming. Besides, if every single 97 NDP vote went straight to Zed, he'd still be a mile behind.
22/11/00 Email:
Elsie's going back to the Commons. I can't imagine that anyone actually thinks the Liberals will topple her in this riding.
24/11/00 JK
This is Elsie's election to lose, and she just might do it.

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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