Gander-Grand Falls

Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Gander-Grand Falls

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	George Baker
Canadian Alliance:
	Orville Penney
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Roger K. Pike
New Democratic Party:
	Bill Broderick

Incumbent:

Hon. George S. Baker

Previous Result:

	52.21%%
	33.69%
	14.10%

Surrounding Ridings:

Misc:

Population:	?
Avg Household Income	?
Language (Home)
English	?
French	?

Submitted Information Submit Informationhere

	12/10/00	Richard	Email:
George has been here forever. Now that he is a shining star in the cabinent and loyal protector of ACOA, nothing barring a nuclear blast will remove the Veteran's Affairs Minister from his seat.
	13/10/00	L.O.	Email:sprockley@hotmail.com
There may not be a Nuclear Blast. But Baker fumbled the Ball big time this summer. The Shrimp Allocation issue was very big is his riding.I know - that's my home riding. It was all over CBC, The Telegram, and the local RB weekly papers. When Herb Dhaliwal gave a shrimp quota adjacent to Newfoundland to PEI fishermen, all hell broke loose. Baker, as NFLD's cabinet minister was expected to speak up on the issue. Indeed, in years past when incidents one tenth as bad happened, Baker would be outraged. Instead he turned on the fishermen. It's still fresh in voter's minds. Even Liberals will be questioning their vote this time. John Efford- a Liberal hero of sortsin NFLD was very upset with the inaction of the NFLD federal Liberals. ACOA or no ACOA, people are upset. They'll vote a candidate that fights for NFLD control of offshore fishery - that's how Peckford and Rideout were elected. In any case this was the first year that I saw George Baker get any bad press. A lot of hunters and fishermen have decided not to vote for him due to the fact that Baker voted in Bill 6-68. It will be close. the PC's could actually win this are for the first time since 1968 or perhaps even the alliance it all depends on who has the better-known candidate and the toughest stand on offshore rights, gun control, and aid for low-income NFLDers. I think Baker may be on his way out...
	13/10/00	Mike O'Brien	Email: mic_collins_2000@yahoo.com
George Baker is in trouble politically for the first time in his life. It may look somewhat positive in the riding (he'll have to play it that way) - but overall - he's in quite a pickle. He wrote a letter to an IT company as ACOA minister saying that the company should move its operation from St. John's to Grand Falls (his riding) - he even threatened to cut off funding if they didn't move....this isn't even playing well in his district. There have been many calls of resignation. Unless the PC's/CA/NDP split the vote ( a possibility as people react different to this) George Baker will likely loose his seat.
	13/10/00	A.S.	Email: adma@interlog.com
It's the George Baker Selection, and the Liberals have this one in their Little Green...er, Red...Bag. (Yeah, I know;-))
	20/10/00	Milton	Email: milton@politician.com
George Baker own this riding for the past 25 years, and is so popular that he didn't even borhter to campaign in 1997. To suggest that he would lose is simply silly. Rumour was that the PM's senior advisors wanted to have him make way for Tobin's election, but he threaten to run agains Tobin as independent if foced to step down.
	20/10/00	Garth	Email:
In the three short years since the last election Baker was given a cabinet position and Tobin came back to the Federal Arena. In the 8 short hours that the polls were open, Baker recieved over 52% of the popular vote. In his 26 short years in the house, he has seen 6 Prime Ministers and won 7 elections. He is well set up for a few more short years of being elected.
	22/10/00	L.O.	Email: sprockley@hotmail.com
I'd like you to change the graphic by my previous post. Abitibi Consolidated man Roger Pike has announced his intention to run for the tories in this riding. Everything I mentioned before about George Baker stands. He's in trouble. Considering his silence on Shrimp, his absence in parts of his district, his threats on ACOA, his poor handeling of ACOA, his vote in support of the hated Bill c-68 on gun registration, his govt's involvement in HRDC billion dollar scandal, the timing of this election, and the fact that he's been booted out of cabinet make Baker weaker than ever. It's just a question of who will take advantage of that. Pike is high profile - especially in Grand Falls and the western part of the district. If people like PC Party of NF President Kevin O'Brien start campaigning for him in Gander, he might win. It will be interesting to see who the NDP candidate is... One thing os for certain, Notre Dame Bay never forgot the silence of George Baker when the feds re-allocated their quotas. very close.
	26/10/00	Full	Email: mic_collins_2000@yahoo.com
I think this will far closer than observers from away realize. I live in the western part of this riding. George Baker hasn't visited my community in TEN years (1990). Even during those elections he was absent. This would, on surface, be a sign of strength. But given the fact that a relative unknown like Todd Barker came close than anybody in twenty years in 1997 is interesting. Mary Shortall, former NDP candidate, picked up 4000 votes and spent the campaign in St. John's - didn't even set foot in the riding. Roger Pike was heard every morning on the radio in this district for many years as people went to work (when there WAS work!). He was on TV. Then he stayed on the radio as PR for Abitibi and is involved in every corner of Grand Falls commmunity life. I hear he has 2 offices set up already. Add to this the fact that there are 2 PC sitting MHAs in this federal riding (elected in 1999) who will be campaigning for him. Ray Hunter will deliver the Windsor-Springdale area. Tom Rideout, former premier of Newfoundland, will deliver Lewisporte and a sizeable chunk of Notre Dame bay just by putting his name by the candidate. There was recently a piece on CBC radio describing George Baker as peaking a year ago when he was first a cabinet minister. He made a lot of enemies for turning on fish plants and fishermen to defend Dhaliwal - including FPI's Vic Young. Now he's out of cabinet with a recent threat scandal on his name and any goodies from the feds likely to go to save either Tobin, Byrne, or the beleagered Matthews. This riding has had the lowest turnout of any in CANADA for the last 2 elections at about 51%. This may work to Baker's advantage. It will be interesting to see who the NDP candidate is. I hear the CA candidate, Penney, is related to Liberal MHA Anna Thistle. After reading the latest polls - I doubt he has a chance - but he could split the vote enough to save Baker. But if not, things have changed so much for Baker on open line, editorials, and newspapers recently that Pike could win. Just remember: Pike WILL take Grand Falls if he works at all. Grand Falls, if it votes in large numbers represents almost Baker's entire vote count last time. Add to that the securely PC Green Bay area, and the endorsement of a former premier and you certainly have a race. this is a close one. If you live here, you know that it comes up in the Tim Hortons gossip. And if you listen to Randy Larcombe and Miek Coin (sp?) the morning show instead of just taking 2 seconds to look at Baker's past results, you'll know it's a race. Not sure who I'll be supporting for yet. for once, Like a lot of people, I'll have to think about it.

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