|The Liberal beat the Reformer by only three percent last time. Look for an Alliance victory here.|
|Under normal circumstances the Alliance should have no problem claiming this seat- but this is no normal circumstances. The riding contains the town of Walkerton Ontario. A lot of people in the riding blame Mike Harris' ultra- fiscal conservativism for the lack of funding to water safety programs causing the fatal ecoli outbreak. Stock Day's message of fiscal conservatism could not come at worst time for the people of the riding. Former Mayor of Owen Sound, Ovid Jackson will keep this one for the Liberals.|
|The Walkerton tragedy will have little effect on the federal results in this riding. This is a riding where small-c conservative policies have long been popular. Ovid Jackson is yet another weak Liberal MP who managed to squeak by in 1997 by default as a result of vote-splitting on the right. Stockwell Day's conservative populism will resonate strongly in much of the riding. Also a weak Tory Party creates the right climate for an Alliance victory. Moreover, C-68 is highly unpopular in this rural riding, further benefiting the Alliance odds.|
|Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound went Liberal in 1997 with only a 3.57% margin over the Reform candidate. This rural Ontario riding is prime Alliance territory and barring any CA campaign disasters I would bet this time around B-G-OS goes CA.|
|this riding will stay liberal,i disagree that ovid jackson is a weak liberal mp, fact is he has been very activin the riding. the people of walkerton are very angry at mike harris and the tories, this does not bode well for stockwell day and the alliance. mr jackson will be returning to ottawa.|
|I was in the south 1/2 of this riding yesterday. Lots of CA lawn signs were up. But they were all on public property and none on privately owned lawns. Does this indicate a lack of support for Peer?|
|CA vs Walkerton...what wrenching crosscurrents. As he won fairly safely in '93, Ovid Jackson's Reform scare in '97 was a bit surprising; perhaps racism, or perhaps successful pro-Reform rallying by maverick Tory MPP Bill Murdoch? Though, for the record, it was the Walkerton-Hanover-Mildmay area that provided the wall of Grit to save Ovid; Reform's strength was most visible in rural Grey County and the Bruce Peninsula. So, there's real uncertainty behind what might have looked like a dead-on Alliance pickup, here...|
|Ovid Jackson is extremely popular here. He was the mayor of Owen Sound and before coming to Canada used to fis Rolls Royces. I can't seen the Alliance winning this seat. He was the mayor.|
|If the Alliance is predicting a Peer win based entirley on the fact that they were withing 3% last election, they are in for a surprise. The Reform-Alliance is now an entirely differently party. I feel that a good chuck of Peer's vote came from highly persuadable voters who saw no real chance of the Reform forming a government. However, not that there is more of a chance this time, and given the fact that many people a scared of Stockwell Day's agenda and realize what he is really up to, many of these people will vote either Tory or Liberal. Either way, the gap between Jackson and Peer will widen, and Ovid will easily win the riding (if the everyone gets out and votes!!)|
Ovid Jackson does NOT have a poor constituency record. This is the furthest thing from the truth. Mr. Jackson has worked very hard to represent all residents of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, however by his own nature does so quietly and does not scream for media attention everytime he does anything (like a certain M.P.P. in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound)...There will for sure the a Liberal win in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, no doubt about it.
|Kevin; I disagree that the liberals will handily win this riding, and I do believe that the 3% margin is a good indication of the CAs strong chance for victory here, and I'll explain why.. Obviously last time there was a support base for the Reform party, seeing as how they cam so close to winning, but things are different than in 1997. The Alliance has significantly more support in Ontario than the Reform party ever did, and while it is unlikely they could win a majority of seats in Ontario this increase in support probably means they will be able to take the ridings where they came very close last time... and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound is one of them. The chances of former Reform supporters switching to any other party than the Alliance are not high, so it would be reasonable to expect they would retain the vast majority of the 33% that voted last time. However, the liberals tend to have much softer support, meaning the CA has the advantage - they only have to get another 4% of the vote, and all signs point to them doing at least that. The Liberals have the challenge of not LOSING any of their support. Another thing... Statements like this: "many people a scared of Stockwell Day's agenda and realize what he is really up to" show that Liberal propaganda has been very influential to some people... I would like to hear some realistic evidence of the liberals mud-slinging campaign against the CA about "hidden agendas"... and then I'd be more than happy to discuss the Liberal's own "hidden agenda". |
|The Alliance will wear Walkerton on election day. Give this one to the Libs.|
|Tory Defectors Hold Key|
"Further west, in Owen Sound, campaign organizers are focused on the 1997 results - and everyone acknowledges that Tory voters will decide the outcome.
Ken Watson, the Canadian Alliance campaign manager in Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, pointed out that the Conservatives polled 11,139 votes.
``You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that if we get some Conservative votes . . .'' he said.
Liberal MP Ovid Jackson has no illusion about who will decide his fate.
``Conservatives have to make a decision,'' he said.
In 1997, Jackson was re-elected with 17,896 votes - 1,735 votes more than Murray Peer, then running for Reform.
Privately, Liberals are worried that the polarization may mean the end of Jackson's career.
Rural unhappiness about Bill C-68, the gun registration legislation, and religious activism on the abortion issue are both mobilizing issues in the riding.
Karen Gventer, an environmental consultant working in Owen Sound, who argues that the New Democratic Party is the only party with a serious commitment to restoring health care.
But Progressive Conservative candidate Allen Wilford is the wild card.
The Durham farmer and lawyer acknowledged his campaign started late, and many Conservatives have already jumped ship - either left to the Liberals, or right to the Alliance.
But they hold the key to the outcome."
|While the Alliance's social policies may help them in this region, their fiscal conservatism will be unpopular here. Ovid Jackson, the Liberal candidate, is will liked and well respected in this area. This will be a tight race between the Alliance and the Liberals but the Liberals will most likely pull ahead, though in an extremely close race, the NDP may steal enough Liberal votes to enable the Alliance to squeak in. If the Alliance can make a break into Ontario, this is where it will be. This one is too close to call yet. But in light of the Walkerton tragedy, the Alliance's association with the provincial Tories will push the Liberals ahead, methinks. |
|I am very wary of making a prediction here. The race was very close in 1997, and you have to think that the Alliance will have more votes here than last time. But the PC vote is sure to decline, and no one can tell where they are going. The water tragedy is a real wild card, but it isn't like the federal Liberals can claim a fantastic environmental record. Had local MPP Bill Murdoch run for the Alliance, as was widely rumoured, this would be no contest. But he didn't, so it is. In the end, I am going to go with this rather mean-spirited analysis: this is a poorly educated riding with very low newspaper readership, dependent on two sources for information on the election, TV and word of mouth. The Liberals have won the TV war and made much of the election about questions of Day's suitability for office. The word-of-mouth chatter in the donut shops is more about Day's belief in creationism, his flip-flops on abortion and referenda and his candidates really stupid comments about Asians. BDC and HRDC and other "scandals" are not very gossipy stories and won't sway enough votes for the Alliance to win. Liberals by a handful.|
|The new Ekos survey in this riding shows the Liberals with 61%, the Alliance with 21% and the PCs with 9%. The margin of error is 11% and it was taken from November 19-21. So it looks like Ontario is going to stay 100% Red again. You can find the poll at http://www.ekos.com/press/election2000/23nov2000.pdf|
|New VR - Ekos poll show the Liberal leading 2 to 1 over the *combined* Alliance and Tory votes.|
|should have gone CA- when lose here- evidence again of failed campaign- if CA wins then evidence of pollsters not being able to get good read of rural vote intentions|
||Christopher J. Currie
|A few days ago, a local Liberal told me that he believes this riding to be in jeopardy. As you can tell, I disagree. Theoretical question: after the election, will Ovid Jackson be a leading Martinite voice in this region?|