Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Alex Shepherd
Canadian Alliance:
Gerry Skipwith
Progressive Conservative Party:
Sam Cureatz
New Democratic Party:
Ken Ranney
Durk Bruinsma

Alex Shepherd

Previous Result:

Population: 91 254
Avg Household Income 58 431
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19/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
I looked hard at the results for all of the parties in both the 1993 and 1997 elections. There were 18 ridings in Ontario in which the Canadian Annoyance party was in dead heat with the Liberals, not once but in both of those elections.....when they were less likely to win any seats in Ontario. Durham is one. Expect that extra gain in Alliance popularity lately, however slight, to tip the Liberal's canoe here.
23/10/00 J Smith Email:
If 15% difference is considered close in Canadian politics, than the Reform Party was close all over the province. The alliance didn't pick up enough PC support to tip the Liberal canoe. This one will be another Liberal hold.
25/10/00 Initial Email:
Even if the Shepherd vs Smyth margin more than doubled btw '93 & '97, under current circumstances this remains in the top echelons of CA targets. Placed favourably between right-unionist Oshawa and the right-hinterland Kawarthas, it's a very tempting (lotsa farm country, lotsa conserv Xtians, just the right absence of "multiculturalism") 905-belt NE cushion. Alliance may win, or they may not win, but they'll register prominently anyway. The only way they'd positively throw Durham down the toilet is by choosing John Stachow as its nominee...
26/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Don't jump to conclusions about the Libs taking it back without a fight. Granted they won with almost 15% last time, but this riding's history is all over the place.. It barely went Liberal in '93, was PC before that and Provincially it's Harris tory Blue. As for predictions... I have no idea, just thought I'd throw my two cents in. Toss Up CA/Lib.
30/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
This riding was included in the '905 oversampling' on the October 27th COMPAS poll: Liberals 62, Alliance 24.
07/11/00 Ian Whyte
This one will be closer than in '97. The Liberals will lose votes from the last time because of the more conservative nature of the riding. The Alliance is better organized that the PC's and the Tory candidate, Sam Cureatz is running because nobody else will. Most of the Tory vote in '97 will go to Skipwith but the key number is how many votes the Liberals lose. I predict a CA win by 2-5%.
19/11/00 Delroy
Alex Sheppard is a remarkable campaigner, has a solid team headed up by Ontario Liberal Party VicePresident Gary Minnie. Although, the Reform-Alliance will make a race of it, polls showing the Libs headed for another majority will tip the balance to this being a Liberal hold.

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Last Updated 20 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan