Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Ivan Grose
Canadian Alliance:
Barry Bussey
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bruce Wright
New Democratic Party:
Bruce Rogers
Marxist-Leninist Party:
David Gershuny
Marijuana Party:
Craig, McMillan

Ivan Grose

Previous Result:

Population: 105 405
Avg Household Income 48 654
Submitted Information
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16/10/00 Michael Cooper Email:
Despite being a one-time NDP stronghold, Oshawa has recently become a lot more blue. Provincially Tory Jerry Ouelette has held this riding in two consecutive elections with comfortable pluralities. The provincial Tories populist message of smaller government, sizeable tax cuts, etc have resonated in this predominately blue-colar riding. Stockwell Day has much of the same appeal. The Reform Party placed a close second in this riding in both 1993 and 1997. If the Alliance builds any momentum during the election campaign, watch for Oshawa to be one of the first Liberal losses in the "905" belt.
23/10/00 Peter J Email:
Although Oshawa may be characterized as a Union Town, the CAW membership is hardly "working class." Most of these people make comfortable livings. The other thing is the the raisin d'etre of the NDP has al but been eliminated. By virtue of their own initiatives, the CAW's membership have achieved all that any worker could imagine. The Alliance however, speaks for a lot of things that these folks are interested in: lower taxes, less government, safer streets, the repeal of Bill C-68 and democratic reform. And the Liberal's haven't done a thing for the city. Ivan Grose can't speak of a single job his government has helped create in the city. The many won on Johnny Croutons coat tails. The combined PC - Alliance vote would bury the Liberals.
22/10/00 Chris Bryan Email:
Look for the CA to take Oshawa,possibly with a surprising 50%+.The Alliance has selected a rather strong candidate to take on Grose,one of the most invisible Liberals in Ottawa.Generation change will be a strong factor.NDP and PC campaigns are virtually non-existent here.Many former Liberal and PC executive members have signed on to the CA campaign,including the well-respected Allan Hayes,who ran in 1997..
26/10/00 The shadow EMAIL:
The truth is the Tories can't get anybody to run. Last year who whole executive quite and joined the Alliance. Even Alan Hayes who ran for the Tories in '97 is working closely with the Alliance. He organized a fundraiser for Stock back in June - my goodness what have things come to here? I suspect the Tories are done like dinner and nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb. Sources say the Liberal's aren't taking the PC demise too seriously and aren't even bothering to put up signs until after municipal elections. Mr. Grose might be in for a big surprise. Without the Tories, Ivan will be collecting his pension sooner then he thought. This is going to be a nasty race but I think Alliance candidate Barry Bussey will bag this one!
27/10/00 the shadow Email:
Big news, big news... Stockwell Day is coming to Oshawa on Monday, October 30. I got the feeling he knows something and wants to share it with the overtaxed folks of Oshawa. Sources say his internal polling shows Oshawa as the most winnable seat in the "905." I'm told that the PC collapse in Oshawa will allow Bussey to ride to victory on November 27. Liberal insiders here in Oshawa say this is the Alliance's best shot in urban Canada, east of the Man/Ont border. The Tories here can't find a sacrifical lamb to run - I think they're toast. If the polls hit the key 30% threshold the Liberals can say goodbye to Oshawa.
28/10/00 the shadow Email:
Damb, the Tories finally found a sacrificial lamb to run. I still don't think it'll make a bit of difference in the riding. Bussey has a tonne of former Tories working on his campaign and they are well connected. This will be really ugly for the PCs.
30/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
This riding was included in the '905 oversampling' of the October 27th COMPAS poll: Liberals 62, Alliance 24, PC 9.
02/11/00 A.S.
*The* textbook illustration bar none for unionists' "Reagan Democrat" left-to-right u-turn; in a few short years Colonel Sam's town went from Broadbent to boulevard of broken NDP dreams. After all the hissing and panting, 1997's result wound up a virtual photostat of 1993, though NDP slipped back ahead of PC for 3rd. Ex-bank robber Grose could never crack 40% and, to be honest, is kind of in there by default. Maybe *this*, at long last, might be the magical opportunity for them auto-worker neanderthals...
03/11/00 the shadow
I heard a rumour...looks like the Liberals in Oshawa are doing their best they can to dig up anything on Bussey. NOW Magazine out of Toronto, that dirty counter-cultural rag that has a classified section layered with folks seeking manage est trois's, really has it in for Bussey. Seems that the folks at NOW think being religious is a reason to dismiss someone from political aspirations. You know these folks at NOW get on their high horse every time they hear something contrary to their opinion. The last time I checked the Trudeauesque Charter of Rights and Freedoms guaranteed freedom of assembly, expression and religion. So why do you think the folks at NOW are trying to demonize every CA candidate. At least with Bussey you can count on the fact that he aint no turncoat. The man has principles and guts. By the way, the Liberals can dig all they want. Here's an interesting thought, has anyone checked into Grose's attendance record in the House - shameful. And what about his voting record. This trained seal never once voted for anything other that what Jean Crouton wanted. More on this another time. May the Alliance be with you!
09/11/00 Greg
In response to the above commentator, I believe that the contents of the 'dirt' the faux-leftist NOW unearthed about the CA candidate should be explained: once upon a time, Barry had urged his flock from his pulpit not to join unions or participate in union activities, since the 'mob mentality' of unions was the very same mob mentality that led to the crucifixtion of Christ. He's got a right to his opinion, of course, and is free to exegete his Bible in any way he sees fit, but surely this is legitimate news (and worth reporting) in a town where the population has only become wealthy enough to vote CA through the strength of collective bargaining... Not that it will matter, of course. Oshawa is far enough from Toronto that NOW Magazine won't be widely available. Perhaps if the CAW were publicizing Barry's statement, but I don't believe they are and the CAW only has limited influence over its flock anyway...
17/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
After speaking with friends here and reflecting on the comments about the Alliance reaching 30%(they haven't) the Liberals will hold this one handily. I'm shocked.
18/11/00 MH Email:
Too close to call, but if any urban constituency in Ontario can be taken by the Alliance this is it. At least the men in the constituency are tairlor-made Alliance supporters: relatively undereducated but, because of their union jobs, relatively well-off (an overgeneralization but not far off the mark, I think). Anti-employment equity, macho redneck sentiments far from uncommon. Key is whether younger women will vote in lareg numbers, for that would keep Oshawa in Liberal hands. Otherwise it will become one of a handful of Ont constituencies to go Alliance.
18/11/00 the shadow Email:
I went to the Oshawa Chamber of Commerce's all candidates forum yesterday. What a yawner. This has to be one of "the" most boring forums I've ever attended. Not only were no questions of substance asked, but the audience wasn't even permitted to ask questions. With an audience comprised largely of party hacks questions from the floor would have at least kept me awake. Obviously the candidates themselves put little stake in the pidly forum. Sam Cureatz, the PC candidate for Durham didn't bother to show up (now there's a wasted vote) and Bruce Roger's, the articulate candidate for the NDP in Oshawa, actually got up and left mid-way through the forum. Bruce Wright, for the PC's, really lacked confidence and wasn't so sure he understood a lot of this own party's policies (he agreed with 99% of what Alliance candidate Bussey had to say). So here it is, November 18 and the candidates themselves have proven that its really a 2 horse race in Oshawa between the Allia! nce and the Liberals. To vote either PC or NDP is a wasted vote. With respect, the two candidates present for these parties proved that they are merely props and not to be taken seriously. Still I believe Bussey will take it - that is if the Liberals stop tearing down his signs. Having spoken with folks in both the Liberal and Alliance offices its clear that the latter is a bit more organized. The Liberal staffers are indeed concerned. Sources tell me there not exactly getting a warm reception from the public in Oshawa. Seems the good citizenry are tired of being lulled to sleep by Ivan the party hack. The city needs an injection of energy. I wonder when Ivan is going to start his door-to-door campaign? More later... even I'm getting bored by this discussion.
19/11/00 Ed Valk Email: The above link, which discusses various methods used by the major parties to make their events seem successful, mentions a Day rally in Oshawa. The turnout was going to be low, so some highschool students were brought in from Kingsway College, a private Christian school affiliated with Bussey, the Alliance candidate. My guess is that the low turnout for the leader is not a good sign. (It also raises the question about how much of those enthusiastic crowds that the Alliance claims are coming to see Day in smalltown Ontario are 'ordinary' people, and how many are part of an organized claque drawn from churches.)
21/11/00 the shadow
I would like to clarify the comments above. In actuality the number of students from the school amounted only about thirty - I should know, I was there. In addition, the Alliance inner-circle in Oshawa, to its credit, did a masterful job of getting Day supporters out to the event given such short notice (48 hours). On the morning in question, they handed out leaflets at GM and other locations across the city. To suggest that turnout at an event in the early stages of a campaign is indicative of voter intention is fool-hardy. Like most folks in Ontario, Oshawans were beset by Municipal elections which distracted the campaign efforts of all federal candidates. Ivan Gross's team even admits that they have had difficulty overcoming the ambivalence of their own party members to get involved. If you drive through Oshawa today you will see Bussey signs galore. They didn't just appear there. Signs are on residential and commercial properties and the office has been flooded with requests to the point where that can't keep up to the demand. If my observation counts for anything, Ivan is in trouble and Oshawa will be awash in a sea of blue and green come election night.
21/11/00 THE REAL SHADOW Email:
CA members will get a reality check in this riding. The local CA candidate was parachuted into the riding over the objections of two local candidates including the incumbent candidate that was only 10% behind GROSE in the last two elections. Oshawa had a long NDP history but the party support has collapsed so far that they could not find a local candidate to run for the party. The PC candidate is running stronger than expected due to the recent influx of supporters from the former Reform Riding association. This one is Liberal all the way with projections showing at least 45% plus support, a poor CA second and the tories trailing in third. The NDP will be lucky to get out of single digit support. Another GROSS LIBERAL VICTORY. ;}
22/11/00 the shadow
I don't know who "the real shadow" happens to be, but I do know that he is ill-informed. In spite of your suggestions that Barry was somehow "parachuted" in, this is an out and out lie. Barry moved to the area from Newfoundland in the late 80's to attend high school. Subsequently he has worked in the city since '96 and resides in the surrounding countryside. I don't have a clue what 2 candidates objected openly to Barry's candidacy. Logically however, any other candiate is bound to oppose their competitors otherwise he or she would be acclaimed. Regardless, Barry ran on his own steam and won the nomination fairly. Somehow "the real shadow" seems to suggest that previous party candidates have some sort of divine license the next time round. Barry is a fresh face for a fresh party. Also I must dispute the argument that former Reformers are joining the PC's. I can't imagine why? The Alliance membership in Oshawa has almost doubled this year and grass-roots su! pport for the candidate has been substantial: if signage is a barometre, Barry's supporters outnumber all others by 3 to 1. And on your final point regarding polling, if "the real shadow" is refering to the poll that I think he is than he neglected to mention that the poll had Barry only 2 percentage points behind Gross with a margin of error of 5% - with that in mind, Bussey might actually be in the lead. Hence the reason this race is still TCTC. The Liberals aren't out of the woods yet.
22/11/00 Absentee Voter
Zogby shows Alliance surge to 29% from 25 last poll. Unethical Chretien leaking small percentages to PC and CA. This will be the difference in this riding. Oshawa not at all like elitist western suburbs Oakville and Mississauga. The people here have much more in common with hard work and family values rather than liberal causes. This is a solid, hard working hockey player producing area. This will go 35% Alliance, 30% Liberal, 25% NDP, 10% PC and other. This one will hurt the Libs the most given proximity to Toronto.
22/11/00 Cyber Chic Email:
I don't know what "the real shadow" is getting so bent out of shape about. I mean I get the feeling that the "incumbent," is suffering from a bit of Al Gore Syndrome and is being a poor sport. From what I've seen, the Bussey team has had a lot of success and support from the grass roots in the riding association - have you seen all the signs? If the incumbent feels that he has some sort of right to being a candidate, why doesn't he simply run as an independent? The thing is, I'm not so sure "the incumbent" could beat Ivan Gross even if he was spotted a 5,000 vote lead.
23/11/00 Ed Valk Email:
I personally wouldn't make too much of the signs: not everyone that takes a sign is a supporter. A lot of people will put up a sign just because you ask. And a lot of the husbands that are putting up the signs may have wives that are cancelling their votes. (The gender gap remains a problem for the Alliance.) I note that Absentee Voter's proposed breakdown (CA-35%, Lib.-30%, PC-10%, NDP-25%) requires the NDP to actually increase their vote, which I don't think is very likely. The suggestion does illustrate what will be the deciding (and completely unpredictable) factor: the way PCs and NDPs decide to vote. This is not completely a left-right thing. Province wide polls suggest to me that PC-voters will go to Liberals and Alliance in roughly equal numbers. But, so too, not all ex-NDPers will go Liberal, some might be attracted by the Alliance's anti-establishment tenor. (Indeed, there must be lots of Alliance ex-NDPers in Oshawa.) So what will happen? My guess is that the prospects of expansion for the Alliance are limited in Oshawa and that the Liberals will again win. But I could be wrong about that. It should be fun to watch on election night.
24/11/00 THE REAL SHADOW Email:
The Shadow knows.....nothing. CA apologists are going to have their hearts broken again. Mr. Bussey does NOT live in the riding. Mr. Davies, the past incumbent Reform candidate is working for the PC's and Ms. Turnbull is sitting this one out. Half the former Reform executive is working for PC candidate Wright. As for the post that indicated that the NDP is going to get 25% of the vote. I think you have been attending too many of the Marijauna Party workshops. The NDP will be lucky to get 10%. in 1993, incumbent Mike Breaugh got less than 15% and in 1997, a strong local councillor could only get 18%. In the last provincial, the NDP barely cleared 20% in a three-way race. With recent polls showing NDP support at 7-8%, you guys are dreaming if you expect an NDP surge to let CA come up the middle. In reality, the CA parachute candidate will be hard pressed to retain the 28% acheived in the last two elections. Grose is winning this one going away. As for signs, last time I checked, local businesses or street corners do not get to vote in federal elections. Sign litter does not mean support. CA means never having to admit your TORY.
24/11/00 SM Email:
The Alliance just doesn't have a big enough foot hold in Ontario, This riding is as good as red.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
if Reform could not win here in 1993 and 1997- won't do now- Lib will win easily - CA vote probably be only in mid 20's%
26/11/00 wise owl Email:
It's neck and neck in Oshawa. Tracking poll numbers for Oshawa:, Grose 36.5, Bussey 35.2, Wright 17.6, Rogers 7.7, Others 3.0, n= 320, Margin of error 3.8%, 19 times out of 20. Given that recent Compas polling data has revealed that Alliance voters are more likely to vote, I'd say Bussey has a great chance of winning.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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