Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Bonaventure-Gaspé-Îles-de-la-Madeleine-Pabok

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Georges Farrah
Bloc Québécois:
Raynald Blais
Canadian Alliance:
Linda Fournier
New Democratic Party:
Frederick Kraenzel

Incumbent:
Yvan Bernier

Previous Result:
40.80%
41.26%
16.26%
1.68%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population:
Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
English
French
Submitted Information
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13/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email: chris@propertyrights.net
Despite the mysterious appearance of thousands of Alliance members here, this will be a close race exclusively between the Liberals and the Bloc. With the Clarity Law probably pushing most of the close Quebec ridings into the Bloc column this time, expect them to hold here.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I agree that this will be a Bloc/Liberal duel, disagree that the Clarity Bill will necessarily make the difference. This could go either way.
28/10/00 Sandy Berger Email:
This riding was lost by the Liberals last time due to EI cuts. With the restoration of EI levels, treat this like an Atlantic riding. Liberal pick-up.
29/10/00 Adam Sobolak Email:adma@interlog.com
It was nose-to-nose btw/two Grit & BQ incumbents in 1997, though the latter may now have the advantage of incumbency--but the patches of New Brunswick-border federalism shouldn't be ignored. Though a Tom Long supporter might deem this "A rural Quebec riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Alliance";-)
03/11/00 WJM Email:
The Bloc had a narrow win in this riding with its strong federalist zones to counterbalance the sovereigntist ones. The incumbent isn't running again, and without the incumbent advantage, and the slipping Bloc support among francophones, this one will slide back into the Liberal camp.
22/11/00 SYL Email:SYLVAIN.LAPOINTE@BELL.CA
SUPPORT FOR THE BLOC IS SLIPPING AMONGST FRANCOS, WHERE??? AT 60% OF FRANCOPHONE SUPPORT THIS RIDING WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE LIBERAL IS FROM THE MAGDELAN ISLAND WHICH WILL HURT IN MAINLAND GASPESIE.....
22/11/00 WJM Email:
There's no PC candidate, leaving the 16 percent of the vote that went Tory in 1997 up for grabs. The Alliance is running here, but since dead people don't vote, their message will go over no better than in the Maritimes. Advantage Liberal, further advantage from the "ballot box bonus", but it will be a competitive riding.
25/11/00 randy gorman Email:michell@netcom.ca
I'm predicting liberal George Farrah will win this riding from the bloc-quebecois. support for the bloc is slipping all over quebec to where a latest pole puts the bloc and liberals neck and neck at 40% each province wide.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan