Laval West

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Laval West

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Raymonde Folco
Bloc Québécois:
	Manon Sauvé
Canadian Alliance:
	Leo Housakos
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Michael M.Fortier
New Democratic Party:
	Christian Patenaude
Green Party:
	Luc Beaulieu
Marxist-Leninist Party:
	Polyvios Tsakanikas

Incumbent:

Raymonde Folco

Previous Result:

	48.90%
	30.28%
	19.16%
	1.66%

Surrounding Ridings:

Misc:

Population:
Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
English
French

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	17/10/00	Bluenoser	Email:
Former PC Leadership candidate, Michael Fortier is contesting this seat. He's very popular locally and within Tory ranks. Plus, there is a PC base in the riding -- they polled over 12,000 votes in 1997.
	19/10/00	J Smith	Email:
This is a Quebec riding targeted by the PC's. The Tories will be concentrating their Quebec efforts in only 5 or 6 ridings, and with M. Fortier running, this seat may change hands. PC upset.
	21/10/00	Richard	Email:
Are you tories serious? Last election Folco got 49 percent, the bloq 30 percent and the tories 19 percent. No way are they even going to finish second never mind win this seat. Actually the PC vote in Quebec has collapsed giving Folco an easy ride with most of the federalist vote solidly supporting her on election day.
	22/10/00	Pundit	Email:
Micheal Fortier has a bright future and this is a good riding for the Tories.
	24/10/00	K.W.t	Email:
If the Bloc had run a close second in '97, I might give Fortier a chance of drawing off enough votes from Folco to give the Bloc a chance. And even then, I'd probably be giving him far too much credit. One must always remember that these campaigns are leader-centred, and Joe Clark has as much appeal in Quebec as a pile up on the Jacques Cartier Bridge. There is the Bloc, and there are the Liberals. No one else has a chance. Going up against a single Quebecois party leader, Trudeau, as Leader of the Opposition, Clark got two seats. Now he is sandwiched between two Quebecois party leaders, and he leads the fifth party in the House. That's a big drop. Conversely, the drop from 2 seats to NONE is a short one. Thus endeth the Tory cheerleading.
	26/10/00	Christopher J. Currie	EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I'm amused by the predictions that Michael Fortier has a chance of winning here, and I would remind overly optimistic Tories that M. Fortier received about 1 per cent of the vote in the Tory leadership convention. Even to call him a "Star Candidate" pushes credulity.
	26/10/00	CH	EMAIL: govinda_99@hotmail.com
There is a small chance of a PC surprise here: Laval-Ouest voters are not typical of those in many of the traditionally federalist Montreal ridings. In other words, they're not likely to support the Liberals en masse just to keep the BQ out. If Clark runs a strong campaign and gathers momentum, there could be a 3 way split here, and Fortier could pull off a surprise, razor thin PC win. The BQ are unlikely to win more than 35% max, and could only come through if the PC and Liberal's split the remaining 65% almost equally. Clark's support in Quebec has nowhere to go but up, and Laval's yuppie voters could conceivably go to Fortier, lured by the PCs tax-friendly policies. But the safe money is on the Liberals, and it is just as likely that Fortier will win less the 10%, here. It all depends on the national picture.
	26/10/00	A.S.	EMAIL: adma@interlog.com
Er, technically, there was a "PC base" almost everywhere in Charest's Quebec; in fact, 12,000 votes was only good for 19%, below par for Charest and the least of PC's Laval results. (Though that's nothing compared to the 1993 booby price; at 6.77%, Guy Ricard had the worst result of any PC incumbent!) Now, this is the federalist-heavy part of Laval, and Folco's positioned to stay; and while Fortier may swim against the tide, the PC leadership race registered too faintly on the radar screen to give him anything like clear advantage. Here's to him matching or surpassing that 19% last time around...
	26/10/00	randy gorman	Email:
michael fortier should have ran for the liberals in either laval-centre or laval=east,he has no chance in this riding,raymonde folco will win with relative ease.
	03/11/00	Full Name	Email:gilles_g@hotmail.com
You know, for me I feel that the alliance haave very strong chance in this riding, you may all think that I am crazy for this but when you consider that the francophone people as a people, that what we want is what the alliance stand for. They say that they will reduce the federal government and give the powers to the provinces, this for quebec is a very good thing and I think that many of the voters realize this and will do the right thing on election day.
	07/11/00	Rene	Email:Rene@laval.ca
You know, I think that this guy, gilles, he doesn't really know. This party alliance is not heard of in Quebec and, since long time, pc party is nowhere to be seen. i think it will be good race to day of election, i guess for Liberal. Maybe alliance party win somewhere, but hard time in Quebec.

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