British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Alberni-Qualicum

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
New Democratic Party
JANSSEN, Gerard A. M.
Green Party
PAONE, Sergio
Marijuana Party
THORP, Nicholas Saint Edmund
Liberal Party
TRUMPER, Gillian
Incumbent:
  Alberni
Gerard Janssen
  Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Rick Kasper
  Parksville-Qualicum
Judith Reid

Previous Result (redistribution):
785536.57%
1014747.24%
20479.53%
PDA
9724.53%
2771.29%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Alberni
509935.85%
739852.01%
8235.79%
PDA
5784.06%
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
755634.39%
1068648.63%
18878.59%
PDA
10614.83%
Parksville-Qualicum
1345941.19%
1297639.72%
395512.11%
PDA
16695.11%
Census 1996:
Population:50790
Dev. from Quota:7.73%
Area (km2):8857
Pop Density:5.73

Surrounding Ridings:
Comox Valley
Cowichan-Ladysmith
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Nanaimo
Nanaimo-Parksville
North Island

Submissions
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19/02/01 CM Email: mayor_21@london.com
Liberal candidate Gillian Trumper is a popular Port Alberni mayor. Despite the riding's solid NDP history, the Liberals will pick up this riding.
06/03/01 love elections Email:d_parker71@hotmail.com
The NDP will win this one, Gillian is mayor because the NDP like her as mayor, she has run too many times against Janssen and lost, the IWA boys in the woods will send Janssen back as MLA again on election night.
09/03/01 Email:
This will be tough to predict. A lot of fed-alliance in the new Qualicum community. The press is too big of a factor.
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
The NDP has a good shot here with gerrard janssen,against perrennial candidate gillian trumper,unless total sweep, this will be NDP
26/03/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
This riding is now much more 'even' in political terms. Therefore the NDP have no chance of winning this riding this time. Look for a big win for Gillian Trumper.
18/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Gillian will finally thrump Gerrard - Liberal gain. Why would the rank and file IWA members vote for the NDP who have over the past ten years destroyed many jobs through the Forest Practices code, creation of new parkland to appease the Greens in the party - see the article in the Vancouver Sun on Monday regarding the unions moving away from the NDP and to the Liberals in the rural area - restribution helps the Liberals with the addition of Qualicum.
25/04/01 psw Email:www.weber.ca
The NDP has now chased out thousands of people from this valley over the past decade. The Parkland created in the Carmanah and Clayquot has not only chased out hundreds of loggers but also the teachers who would have taught their children. The majority of people in this valley are now retired, unemployed youth, or working dead end minimum wage jobs. I think they are a bit disgruntled. Even Mr. Jansen closed his business down here.
25/04/01 A.A. Email:
With the inclusion of Qualicum in the riding, Janssen will go down but this will be close. He is personally popular up there and Alberni will support him but I believe there is a 5% Green factor in this riding which will hurt Janssen and Trumper will win for the Liberals
26/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
This riding will go Liberal simply because of the shift in electoral boundries. The Qualicum area will vote en masse in favour of the BC Liberal candidate (I would predict personally well over 80% having met many politically active people in the Qualicum area). Mr. Jansen may be a popular man in the Alberni valley, but his party certainly is not. And with recent polling (Ipso-Reid) showing 61% of decided union members voting BC Liberal, this doesn't look good for Mr. Jansen either.

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Last Updated 27 April 2001
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