British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Esqiomalt-Metchosin

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Independent
ATTRILL, Scott
Independent
BERGLUND, Rick
Conservative Party
CLARKE, Bill
Marijuana Party
DAVIES, Christopher John
Liberal Party
HAMILTON, Arnie
New Democratic Party
KARAGIANIS, Maurine
Independent
MCVEIGH, Gerry
Green Party
SUNDEEN, Marilyn
Unity Party
WARD, Bob
Incumbent:
  Esquimalt-Metchosin
Moe Sihota

Previous Result (redistribution):
555929.14%
1137359.61%
9805.14%
PDA
7644.00%
2751.44%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Esquimalt-Metchosin
677029.14%
1383359.54%
11795.07%
PDA
9213.96%
Census 1996:
Population:46890
Dev. from Quota:-0.54%
Area (km2):99
Pop Density:473.64

Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Saanich South
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Victoria-Hillside

Submissions
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19/02/01 CM Email: mayor_21@london.com
Moe will win here just because he's Moe. Very popular in Esquimalt. NDP hold.
07/03/01 Just a Hunch Email:
I don't think Moe will run again. I suspect with a cut of for nominations schedualed for March 15 he will anounce his retirement. On that note the Liberal cop will win.
08/03/01 Email:
Word on the street is that Moe will not be running. The list of salvagable seats for the NDP just keeps getting smaller and smaller...
13/03/01 Interested Voter Email:
With Moe's announcement today, this riding should revert to the "toss-up" column. It will be hard for the NDP to find anyone that comes close to his high profile.
20/03/01 Email:
With Moe out of the way, this ine will go Liberal!!!
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
This will be hard to call now that Moe has gone,it could go either way,it will be a close one on election night.
22/03/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
With Moe not running I wonder if CM would like to rethink his prediction of this one. I don't have a clue as to what might happen here but with the Liberals at 63% and the NDP at 20% provincially it might explain why Moe baled out.
23/03/01 CM Email:mayor21@london.com
Now that Moe's gone, the riding is a toss up. The new NDP candidate will factor very heavily in the result. For now, this riding is too close to call.
23/03/01 Keith Richmond Email:
Moe departure equals Liberal win. Say what you want about Moe, but his personal popularity within riding was high. He can't be replaced by any NDPer that comes close to his stature within the riding.
05/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
So what will all the NDP voters do if Moe's not running? I can see some voting Liberal, and some staying home, but not enough for the Liberal to win this seat. The Greens could do much better than they have before. I think the NDP candidate, Karagianis, still has a decent chance at winning. Don't forget, Sihota won with HUGE majorities, even in 1996 when most NDP candidates just squeaked through. He was there for so long that we really don't know what will happen with him gone. All bets are off.
20/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
Day two of the campaign, and I hear there's a Karagianis sign everywhere you look. She's got much more of a base in the community than Hamilton. So does the Green candidate, Marilyn Sundeen, who's been very vocal on environmental issues in Metchosin, especially against gravel pits. And these are not issues that put her on the political fringe: a lot of people living in the area share her views.
21/04/01 b.j. Email:
The only base Karaganis has in Esquimalt is helping to destroy it. She is a councillor that is driving business out of Esquimalt. Hamilton has deep roots within Esquimalt as being a respectable Policeman with the Esquimalt Police. He will run away with the riding, if not in Esquimalt, Colwood and Metchosin will support him heavily.
27/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
I am ready to call this one - Liberal gain - With the Liberals at 61% vs 21% for the NDP and 10% for the Green party on Vancouver Island according to the latest Ipsoo Reid I just don't see how the NDP can retain this riding. Also with Ujjal's popularity dropping and all those campaign signs so prominately boosting him rather than the party each time a person sees one they have another reason not to vote NDP.

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Last Updated 29 April 2001
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