British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
New Westminster

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
New Democratic Party
BOWBRICK, Graeme
Green Party
BROUGHTON, Robert
Marijuana Party
CAMPBELL, Marlene P.
Unity Party
IRVING, Howard Vernon
Liberal Party
MURRAY, Joyce
Incumbent:
  New Westminster
Graeme Bowbrick

Previous Result (redistribution):
790038.59%
948946.36%
13416.55%
PDA
10555.15%
4502.20%
Previous Result (old ridings):
New Westminster
859138.50%
1041846.69%
14466.48%
PDA
11215.02%
Census 1996:
Population:49350
Dev. from Quota:4.67%
Area (km2):18
Pop Density:2741.67

Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby-Edmonds
Burquitlam
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Delta North
Richmond East
Surrey-Whalley

Submissions
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20/02/01 CM Email:
Attonery General Graeme Bowbrick could keep this riding. It has a long NDP history, and voters might keep with its traditional voting patterns.
21/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bnernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
The NDP got their clocks cleaned here in the federal election, look the same to happen provincially as the BC Liberals will not have to have the same vote spiltting the Fed Libs and CA had in the riding. Browbrick has got no chance of re-election.
23/02/01 V.D. Email:bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Yes, considering what happened federally (the fact that the oppositition is practically united under the BC Liberals), and the unpopularity of the BC NDP, Graeme Bowbrick will not survuve the liberal wave.
24/02/01 Nick Loenen Email:
With the collapse of Reform BC and the disappearance of the PDA, the BC Liberals will take this one too.
27/02/01 Tiny Tim Email:
Re-elected Reform MP was at the Liberal nomination meeting. Liberals were just short of winning this last time. Expect a healthy Liberal majority and an easy Liberal win, with a strong NDP showing (35%)
01/03/01 Mike Redmond Email: mredmond@generalcounsel.ca
The NDP vote fell by 50% in the federal election, at least partly because of their association with the provincial party. As well the demographics of this constituency are changing away from its historic union-based roots. A solid Liberal prospect in this election.
06/03/01 love elections Email:d_parker71@hotmail.com
Just because the Federal vote was down, does not mean it will not be there for the NDP in New Westminster, lots of cross over prov NDP/CA in this area it's still pretty blue collar, and with a VERY long history of backing the NDP look to it to stay that way on election night.
13/03/01 DMB Email:dennisbaher@netscape.net
I may yet change this to the Liberals as the election day gets closer but at the present time i think the NDP may hang on to this one - while strongly in the Alliance fold federally it will be a hard one for the Liberals to capture unless they sweep the province - the incumbent while now the AG has only recently join cabinet and therefore doesn't have a lot of political baggage to hurt him and this will help his re-election bid - the area has been a strong bastion of support for the NDP and they are likely to pour manpower and money in an attempt to save this one.
15/03/01 Dirk Brinkman Email: dirk_brinkman@brinkman.ca
Three of mwany reasons:
1. The NDP no longer has a ceherent social agenda and have failed to serve the workers who were its core electorate.
2. The BC Liberal Candidate for this riding will work hard to be elected and make it evident she will also work hard for her consituents, which is much more than the NDP incumbant what's his name has done.
3. New Westminster is the center of Greater Vancouver metropolitan area-- the best city, economic center of the best province-- in the best country in the world and New West's Columbia St, once the thriving downtown main street for the lower Fraser Valley shows too plainly and dismally the effect of this riding having been NDP for 49 years.
20/03/01 Marty Email:
NDP Bowbrick has suffered by being virtually invisible in the riding for 5 years. While he gets quoted in the local Record a fair bit (an NDP paper), he goes to hardly any community or civic functions, his absense being noted because MP Paul Forseth often attends. He was totally absent at the mass meeting of over 1000 people concerning the closure of St Mary's Hospital. Contrast this with Liberal candidate Joyce Murray. At her nomination meeting, there were close to 1000 people attending, at Bowbrick's only 100. Murray is motivated and well-organized. She will join the Liberals on the government side of the legislature after the election. Bowbrick will go back to his legal aid job, and maybe even practice law.
21/03/01 Joan Email:
Could go either way,Bowbrick is a decent guy,but the BC Liberals are going to get a big win across the province.
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
This is another of those historical NDP ridings that will still be NDP on election night.
28/03/01 Predictor Email:
Close race at this point. Bowbrick has worked very hard. He has canvassed the riding almost since the last election, and he has delivered on new schools, skytrain and a lot of other projects. However, with the liberals at 60%, it is unclear if Bowbrick's hard work will turn back enough of the tide to avoid losing to the Liberals. New West is a very insular community, and is a little less likely to follow province-wide trends as the rest of the province, but it is not immune to them. I would say it is too close to call.
28/03/01 M Naddaf Email:
Graeme Bowbrick's personal popularity rate is quite high in New Westminster. He has been canvassing on a weekly basis since beening elected in 1996. Graeme is one of the hardest working MLAs and will continue working for the people of NW in gov't or in opposition. This is going to be a tough fight but I strongly believe that Graeme will win NW again!
23/04/01 I. Ali Email:IAli2000@aol.com
Looking at the way things are going in this city, I think the Libs have got this one for various reasons. First of all, that Federal vote slipping away from the NDP with a long time New Westminster NDPer running was a red flag for Bowbrick and he knows it. Also, Joyce Murray is someone who has been so involved with our community, almost more so than our current MLA. The sign wars are going Liberal from my view, and I think the election is headed that way as well
24/04/01 Marty Email:hass81@aol.com
Bowbrick's never knocked on my door, nor my neighbors', so don't believe the BS that regularly appears in the Record on Bowbrick's doorknocking prowess. For the first time I can remember, the NDP is actually LOSING the sign wars in New West! Even in the last federal election (when they got their clocks cleaned) they had more signs than anyone else. Maybe not so many union members are willing to have the NDP foist a sign on their lawn through the use of the union mambership lists.
25/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Bowbrick has worked hard locally but I can't see the NDP holding this seat. There was a report on CBC news tonight on how things are shifting in New Westminster towards the Liberals in line with the province-wide trends. It won't be a landslide, but the Liberal candidate will be the victor on Election night in New West.
25/04/01 SV Email:
I don't live in this riding, but I work here. While from what I see I do not think there is a clear winner in the "sign war", I think it does not bode well for the incumbent because of the numerous Green Party signs I am seeing in the neighbourhood.
25/04/01 DMB Email:politic101@telus.net
As I posted earlier I said I might change this from the NDP to the Liberals - here we are a week into the campaign and two polls have the Liberals at over 70% compared to 16 - 18 % for the NDP and one even has the Green Party running ahead of the NDP in some Vancouver area ridings. Based on this and barring a diaster I can't see Bowrick holding onto to this seat regardless of how many doors he knocks on. Liberal gain
25/04/01 c.n. Email:
From what has happened in the federal election, and with the early poll showing that an overwhelming majority (72%) of voters in BC are going with the Liberals, I have no doubt that this will be the case. As for the riding of New Westminster, Graeme Bowbrick has had his time in the sun. Despite the fact that New West has long been a NDP riding, that will not be the case this time. Joyce Murray will win easily, with a focus on enviromental issues which appeals to the younger generations.
30/04/01 J.F. Breton Email:bretonjf@hotmail.com
New Westminster is an NDP riding since 49 years. This is an historical NDP riding. Bowbrick is a very popular man and a very hard worker. He will be one of the NDP survivor.
02/05/01 Mike Redmond Email:mredmond@generalcounsel.ca
The general poll indications are born out on the ground in New Westminster. Door knocking indicates a strong antipathy to the NDP and support for a change. The only viable alternative to the NDP is the Liberal Party. Unity BC is insignificant and the apparent strength of the Green Party will only take votes that would have otherwise gone NDP. There is no "historic" NDP vote left in this riding, as the federal election demonstrated, any more than in the rest of BC. Given the relatively slim margin of victory they had last time, and the general trend in the province, the NDP have no hope of keeping this seat. Mr. Bowbrick may not be as offensive as other NDP cabinet ministers, but he is not strong enough to carry the seat on his own, especially given a strong and capable Liberal opponent like Joyce Murray.
11/05/01 B.C. Email:
I received a flyer in the mail this morning from Graeme Bowbrick. There is not one reference to the NDP. The Attorney General seems to be trying to distance himself from the government's record. The fact of the matter is that the record of the Clark-Dosanjh government is also his record. He sat at the cabinet table when many of the most damaging policies were agreed on. In the flyer Mr. Bowbrick takes pride in the things that he stands for, why can't he have pride in the things that he and the NDP government did?
14/05/01 JRFD Email:
This riding is a very tight race. This riding has been NDP for 49 years and the natural tendancy for many is to vote NDP. The opposition message is working amazing well in this riding because of the traditional support. Heck, even some who have never voted NDP are seriously considering returning Bowbrick because he will make a good opposition MLA. Also, to look at the federal results is a bit misleading, particularly in this riding. Bowbrick is a popular and moderate New Democrats and has attracts the federal Liberal vote, and has some of them working his campaign. The Liberal in this riding is not a very strong opponent, and certainly no Helen Sparks (the one he beat last time) Expect this to go NDP before any of the Surrey ridings.

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Last Updated 15 May 2001
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