British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
North Coast

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Liberal Party
BELSEY, Bill
All Nations
BOLTON, Emsily Victor
New Democratic Party
FITZPATRICK, Colleen
Unity Party
HALL, Clarence
Green Party
KONSMO, David
Marijuana Party
PEERLESS, Kenneth Leonard
Incumbent:
  North Coast
Dan Miller

Previous Result (redistribution):
268825.86%
673064.76%
7627.33%
PDA
10.01%
2122.04%
Previous Result (old ridings):
North Coast
289925.75%
729864.82%
8307.37%
PDA
00.00%
Census 1996:
Population:31680
Dev. from Quota:-32.80%
Area (km2):67179
Pop Density:0.47

Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Cariboo South
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Skeena

Submissions
Submit Information here

20/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email: bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
I would have thought after Nisga'a and Skeena this riding would have been an NDP slam dunk even at 18% province wide. I hear rumours now from Victoria that the NDP is ready to abandon all the ridings not in Vancouver or Victoria and go on an anti-resource industry election campaign.
20/02/01 Spoon Email: kautsky@hotmail.com
A very strong NDP riding (won by a whopping 29% in '96). This riding should go NDP in 2001.
22/02/01 Hardial Bhalli Email:bhallih@fiberia.com
This should go NDP. However, Dan Miller is not running again, and like in many ridings, the NDP are having trouble finding a good candidate. The BC Libs have nominated a weak candidate here and have to contend with a high concentration of Native voters, who will not like the anti-Nisga'a stance of the BC libs. Finally, North Coast is the home of the Skeena Cellulose pulp mill, which the NDP dumped 300 million into. A large part of the riding directly or indirectly on the mill for their employment, and the BC Libs took a strong stand against the NDP bailing it out. This one will stay NDP.
07/03/01 Tiny Tim Email:
The Liberal stance on Offshore drilling, combined with Campbells weakened stance on Skeena Cellulose should move this vote significantly in the direction of Liberals. Popular Mayor of Rupert lost nomination, but his support of BC Liberals could still help the campaign significantly.
15/03/01 DMB Email: dennisbaher@netscape.net
Have to agree with Tiny Tim - with the Liberals at least being open to the idea of off shore drilling and the continued miscues by the NDP the thought of a total sweep of the province seems to be gaining momentum and while anything can happen in a 28 day campaign if the Liberals deliver the proper messsage here they can win this riding. It may also depend whether Dan Miller decides to campaign or go rest on a beach in some warm climate. If Dan sits out the Liberal victory will be much bigger. Probably a 500 vote Liberal victory.
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
This is another of those historical NDP ridings that will still be NDP on election night,especially with large native vote in the riding.
25/03/01 Phil Millerd Email:
The Liberal's don't stand a chance if the stress oil exploration in Hecate Straita. The Natives will never support a party which advocacates a vote on constitutional land claim settlements. The natives don't trust Gordon Campbell. If they get interested and vote (which they are prone not to) they will vote Green. They are in fact small 'g' Greens and don't know it. The NDP will not be able to find a candidate that can stand up to Dan Miller.
Editor's Note: Dan Miller is not seeking reelection.
28/03/01 Al Email:alfreedom55.net
I was once a SoCred in North Coast and had a hard time getting business people to come out in support in this riding. I feel that there is a number of people that are free-enterprisers. If they get organized behind Bill Belsey I think that the BC Liberals could win this one by a slim margin. Miller was the biggest obstacle, and so was the Aboriginal vote. Now that Miller is out of the way, and the First Nations party is positioning itself to take a good chunk of the NDP vote, this could be one riding to watch!
05/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
The Greens could take a lot of the NDP vote. I don't know if that'll be enough to deliver the riding to the Liberals, though. By the way, is there really a First Nations party? Are they running a candidate here? I agree with a previous comment: many people up here are "small g" greens even if they don't know it. They want resource industries that will last over the long term. They want peace, justice, and predictability in the treaty and land claim process. The Greens could be successors to the NDP as a coalition of environmentalists, First Nations, workers, and industry - we all have more in common than we realize.
20/04/01 Hardial Bhalli Email:bhallih@fiberia
I think that BC Liberal Bill Belsey may now be able to take this one. Dan Miller and the NDP have always got good support from all of the Native villages, but with the first nations party in the mix, they could wind up with much of that vote. If Belsey runs a good campaign in Prince Rupert and does some work on the Queen Charlotte Islands, I think he has a good shot.
22/04/01 Adam Daifallah Email:
With the latest polls showing the BC Liberals at 79% popular support (and upwards of 87% in the interior) there is no way the NDP can hold on to even one seat, not even the traditional NDP stronghold of North Coast. Bill Belsey can start packing his bags because he's heading to Victoria as the next MLA for this riding.
23/04/01 Haywood Jablome Email:
I would have thought that if the NDP had a snowball's chance of winning it would be here. But, matter of factly, their toast. I relish the NDP being decimated but having no opposition is unhealthy for any democracy!
24/04/01 Malcolm Email:iona@unibase.com
So I see that Adam Daifallah is at it again. That would be Adam Daifallah, national president of the CRAP youth? That would be Adam Daifallah of Queens University, which, for the geographically challenged, is in Kingston Ontario? Adam seems to claim a lot of knowledge about ridings where he knows squat. During the federal election, he assured this board's predecessor that "popular Regina lawyer" Wee Jimmy Rybchuk was goin to sweep to victory in Wascana. Problem was, no one in Regina had even heard of this "popular Regina lawyer," and to top off his display of ignorance, wee Adam even spelled Rybchuk wrong. Yes, I'm going right out to bet the farm on what the omniscient Adam Daifallah thinks.
24/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Just what part of Adam's post doesn't Malcolm like - the poll figures which were released this past weekend showing the Liberals at 72% province wide and the NDP at 18% with the Liberals as high as 87% in the north coast and parts of the Interior - Me thinks that the truth maybe coming home to roost for the NDP and all Adam did was quoted readily available public figures - as I posted earlier I think the Liberals will win a narrow victory here.
25/04/01 Malcolm Email:
I am quite prepared to accept that the NDP may lose this seat -- indeed, I accept that the NDP may lose every seat. But unlike our omniscient friend, I try not to speak with absolute certitude on matters where I have limited knowledge or insight. Indeed, the "popular Regina lawyer" wee Jimmy Rybchuk was soundly thrashed by Ralph Goodale in November, showing just what wee Adam's certainty is worth. You will note that In the three posts I have made to this forum, I have not picked a winner once. Although I do have some knowledge of BC politics, I can grasp the simple concept that I'm not on the ground. Personally, I suspect the NDP will win some seats -- perhaps even enough for official party status. But I refrain from the arrogant certitude of wee Adam, who continually grinds his ideological axe without being forthcoming about his identity and ideology.
26/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
Judging by what pundits Rafe Mair (CKNW), Keith Baldry (BCTV), and Michael Smyth (Vancouver Province) have had to say about this riding, added to the huge wave of anti-NDP sentimentism in the area, I'd have to give it to the Liberals. Unless the native vote gets out (historically this is not the case), the NDP stand no chance. Ipso-Reid is putting union support of the BC Liberals at 61%. This adds insult to injury, and with the Reform BC vote sliding to the Libs, watch this riding fall.
29/04/01 Malcolm Email:
Apparently my comments about Adam have raised some hackles -- enough to move one of his ertwhile supporters to send me a moderately abusive email at home. My larger point is that when one is submitting information, one should be prepared to be upfront about those matters which might affect the credibility of one's contribution. That could include things about any ideological axes one has to grind, or how close one is (or is not) to the action in the riding in question. This is my fourth contribution to this site. I think it was reasonably clear that I am an NDP partisan. And I declined to make any predictions because, although I have some knowledge of BC politics, I'm in Saskatchewan, not BC. Is it unreasonable for me to point out Adam's biases? Specifically that Adam is an Alliance partisan and resident in Ontario? Do either of those points affect the credibility of his posts?
01/05/01 Michael Ensley Email:mensley@yahoo.com
Now that the Permier has focused the election on not needing 79 Gordon Campbell's in the legislature and combined with the native vote this will be a comfortable win for the NDP.
14/05/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
Aborginal people do turn out to vote or they boycott. The Nisga'a and the Tsimshian have normally voted at about the same rate as teh non-aboriginal population. These two nations make up about about 1/3 of the voters in North Coast. They are very loyal to the NDP and the NDP did deliver on the Nisga'a Treaty. The Liberals will not be getting any of their votes. So, before anyone else is counted, the NDP are at 33%. If the other 67% split roughly 70:20:10 Lib NDP Oth the NDP is at 47% of the total vote. The Nisga'a have been enthusistic voters since 1949 when they could first vote and returning Frank Calder for many years for the old Atlin Riding (Frank being a Nisga'a leader) And when he crossed the floor the NDP took the seat at the next election - the Nisga'a voted NDP over Calder. Please see my study on Native voting patterns in the 1996 election for more detail, available at MGC.com

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Last Updated 15 May 2001
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