British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Saanich North and the Islands

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Liberal Party
COELL, Murray Robert
Independent
JENSEN, Balther Johannes
Green Party
LEWIS, Andrew
Marijuana Party
RACKI, Christina
New Democratic Party
SAM, Paul
Incumbent:
  Saanich North and the Islands
Murray Coell

Previous Result (redistribution):
1189247.18%
950037.69%
14545.77%
PDA
14285.67%
8073.20%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Saanich North and the Islands
1337447.57%
1054637.51%
16275.79%
PDA
15335.45%
Census 1996:
Population:50860
Dev. from Quota:7.88%
Area (km2):474
Pop Density:107.30

Surrounding Ridings:
Saanich South

Submissions
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19/02/01 CM Email:
Coell will hold easily, despite being against the Green Party leader.
Editor's Note: Andrew Lewis, candidate for Green Party, is not the Leader of the Green Party of BC. Green's Leader, Adriane Carr, is seeking a seat in Powell River-Sunshine Coast.
24/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Coell will win easily, but he is NOT running against the Green Party leader. Adrienne Carr is running against Gordon Wilson in Powell River-Sunshine Coast. Also, his first name is spelt "Murray." He's a former Saanich mayor who is popular locally and would win the riding even if the provincial party standings were much tighter then they currently are.
07/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
Green candidate Wally du Temple got 3% of the votes here in 1996, the 7th best riding for the Greens, and well above the 1-2% that they got in most other ridings. Andrew Lewis will certainly build on that, especially given the pointlessness of voting NDP in a riding that the Liberals won fairly easily last time. The only question is one of degree: whether former NDP supporters will flock to him en masse. Lewis, who was one of the earliest Green candidates to be nominated, could finish second to Coell.
10/04/01 Kermit Email:
Murray Coell will easily win here. Polling indicates Liberals at 67%, Greens at 12%, NDP 6.6%. The NDP vote collapsed in the Federal election to its core of about 2000 votes, this jives with their 6-7% poll. There seems to be high undecided responses in canvassing. This could be politeness or real confusion. If the Green campaign takes off, they could take 20-30% of the vote and place a very decent second. The wild card is the BC Marijuana Party, which is supposed to run a candidate. This will split the left vote three ways.
04/05/01 Dave Email:dave_too2@yahoo.ca
Will remain in the Liberal win column, but it is interesting to note that this was one riding where the Green Party actually won a polling division in last fall's federal election!

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Last Updated 5 May 2001
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