British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Surrey-Newton

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Liberal Party
BHULLAR, Tony
Reform Party
BRIDGMAN, Margaret
New Democratic Party
GREWAL, Param
Unity Party
JOSHI, Paul
Marijuana Party
KAWAMOTO, Stephen
Green Party
WALTERS, David
Incumbent:
  Surrey Newton
Penny Priddy

Previous Result (redistribution):
391131.03%
670453.19%
5514.37%
PDA
8306.58%
1541.22%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Surrey-Newton
978834.71%
1396949.54%
12444.41%
PDA
18416.53%
Census 1996:
Population:43200
Dev. from Quota:-8.37%
Area (km2):21
Pop Density:2057.14

Surrounding Ridings:
Delta North
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Panaroma Ridge
Surrey-Tynehead

Submissions
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20/02/01 CM Email:
This riding has the most NDP members in the province. That could keep this riding in the NDP column.
23/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
The NDP will have trouble even being competive here. The NDP has less members than the Liberals by far, no money and no volunteers. Baring a major gaffe from Tony Bhullar, the Liberals will easily win.
23/02/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I can remember hearing, some time ago, that Penny Pridy wasn't going to run for re-election this time around. This information could be out of date, mind you -- it's possible that the party establishment has convinced her to stay, in an attempt to hold onto as many seats as possible (qv. Bud Wildman, Ontario, 1995).
25/03/01 Bob Davies Email: mktorg@hotmail.com
This area has a large East Indian population. They have decided to support one of their own and ditch the NDP candidate. Penny Priddy will go down in defeat - unless she decides not to run. People in this riding are sick and tired of NDP incompetence!
12/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
With Penny Priddy not running this is a contest between two members of the Indo - Canadian community and they are likely to want to elect a Liberal in the hope of a cabinet seat. If Tony's organizational skills that he demostrated at the Liberal candidate selection meeting which I attended are put to use in the upcoming campaign he will be hard to beat - Another Liberal gain.
14/04/01 Julian West Email:westj@mala.bc.ca
You are underrating the NDP here. This riding has been split literally in two to create the new ridings of Surrey-Newton and Surrey-Panorama Ridge. The vote in Panorama Ridge was almost evenly split between NDP and Liberal in 1996, meaning that almost all of Priddy's margin of victory was in the Newton portion. The Liberals have to erase a 20% margin to capture this riding. Possible, perhaps even likely. But this should be one of the top 5 or 10 ridings for the NDP.
23/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
Again, I have to respectfully disagree with Julian. It's not a 20% gap, because former PDA and Reform BC voters will by a margin of 4:1 vote Liberal. With the NDP still slipping in the polls, watch this riding to go
25/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
While they are very far behind, there is no evidence that I've seen of the NDP "slipping in the polls." In a first-past-the-post electoral system, the overall popular vote totals can be misleading. The clear trend in the past few months has been the total collapse of the BC Reform/Unity vote, which has all gone to the Liberals, while the NDP has held steady in 18-20%. Depending on how concentrated that NDP vote is, it could mean no seats or 6-8 seats provincewide. The Reform/Unity party was mainly a factor in the North and Interior ridings, and to some extent on Vancouver Island. They were nowhere in a riding like Surrey-Newton anyway. To sum up: the fact that the Libs are now at 72% rather than 60-65% means that they will win safe seats in the North, Interior, Vancouver Island and elsewhere by even bigger margins, but does not NECESSARILY mean that they've sewn up swing seats like this one (which I don't feel comfortable calling as yet).
26/04/01 FDB Email:
With the exception of perhaps Whalley, all the remaining Surrey ridings including Newton will definitely go Liberal. People are tired of all the NDP scandals and mismanagement which is one of the reasons Penny Priddy probably decided not to run again. Besides there has been a demographic shift since 1996 and many new incoming residents are Middle class and care about tax cuts and the direction of the BC Economy. Have you seen the large number of Liberal signs on private Lawns in Surrey Newton and Green Timbers respectively? Definite Liberal sweep here except maybe for Whalley which has a large NDP working class base.
04/05/01 Michael Ensley Email:mensley@yahoo.com
There are two members of the Indo-Canadian community running against each other. There does not appear to be much of a Green campaign and with the debate performance of Ujjal D the NDP can win the East Indian vote. vote in this riding.
05/05/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Poll Junkie is right about one thing in this riding - there is no evidence of slippage in the Liberal vote - Compas poll this week - Eastern Suburbs- Surrey etc Liberals 75% NDP 9% Green 8% - I think it is safe for you to call it now. If Michael thinks Ujjal debate was so good how does he explain the poll #'s quoted above.
11/05/01 S Kawamoto Email:shkawamoto@hotmail.com
There's a distinct probability of Param Grewal of getting elected in Surrey-Newton with Tony Bhullar a distant second, followed closely by Paul Joshi of Unity and David Walters of the Greens, and with Stephen Kawamoto trailing a distant last. Bhullar's conspicuous absence helps to dissuade the undecided from throwing their support for him. Kawamoto's one complaint is the lack of accessibility to other candidates during the campaign.
12/05/01 FDB Email:
I live in the riding of Surrey Newton and I wish to reiterate my prediction that Newton will go Liberal. Newton is becoming more middle class rather than working class and people are tired of all the scandals, fast ferries, Doman scandal now, etc. I think that Schreck has made a list of riding predictions which may go NDP (5-6) and Newton is not on it. Finally, highly popular incumbent Penny Priddy is not running again. All in all, a certain Liberal gain. Also, a Surrey Leader columnist in Friday's May 11 paper made a prediction recently where he said 6 Surrey seats including Newton wld go Liberal and 1 NDP(Whalley).

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Last Updated 14 May 2001
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