British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
BEAR, Boris
Marijuana Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
People’s Front
Tim Stevenson

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:12.42%
Area (km2):12
Pop Density:4416.67

Surrounding Ridings:
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Vancouver-Point Grey
West Vancouver-Capilano

Submit Information here

19/02/01 CM Email:
Stevenson could hold it if he runs a good campaign. He's well known in the gay community of the West End, and could be returned to Victoria.
20/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:
Without some significant groundswell for the NDP, Tim is unfortunately not likely to win in the riding again. Which is a shame as I personally like him. He has not been indepedent enough or a public enough figure to rise far above how the party is doing. He also has the problem the BC Liberals are not the Socreds, there is not the social conservative element. % wise the BC Liberal caucus has more out gay MLAs than the NDP.
21/02/01 DMB
This will be a Liberal gain - while Tim is a nice guy and effective member the fact remains that he is a member of a government that is at 17% in the polls - the Liberals nominated Lorne Mayencourt early - popular with the gay voters and has the support of the other candidates who ran against him for the nomination. It won't be a big victory but a victory it will be for the Liberals. Campaign office is already opened and signing up volunteers - Hedy Fry's relection will help Lorne.
26/02/01 Interested Voter Email:
This will be a clean Liberal win this time. Mayencourt is a well-known, well liked, and energetic campaigner. While in '96 it may have been somewhat "trendy" for the 20-somethings that predominate the riding to vote NDP, this time, protest means voting Liberal. Add to the equation the fact that the fast-growing population of more well-heeled voters in gentrified Yaletown and it will be difficult to find the remains of any NDP elected official, even with the use of forensic tools.
06/03/01 love elections
Stevenson should win,the NDP record on human rights will see him through,Too many CA types in the Liberals,to give them a real shot here.
12/03/01 CD Email:
Lorne Mayencourt is a very strong candidate. He is extremely involved in the community, he seems to be working 16 hours a day. I would say that his hard work will take him over the top in a tight race.
21/03/01 D.M. Email:
Lorne Mayencourt should be elected to Vancouver/Burrard. Tim Stevenson has done little for the riding, his constintuant office on Denman has been closed more than open for the last 3 years and although not proof is certainly reflective of his Laissez faire style of leadership. Vancouver Burrard will benefit from Mr Mayencourt's strong involvement in the Vancouver/Burrard community.
22/03/01 am Email:
Lorne will win this one. It will be a close race, but Lorne has been working very hard for this election for a long time. He has a good name in the community, and a great team behind him.
26/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
This is a tough one to call. Tim has done a lot for the riding and the gay community will be proud of bold moves like moving to legalize same-sex marriages and expanding pension benefits to same sex couples, which the Liberals have been wishy-washy on. But there are a lot of upwardly-mobile professionals in the riding and I think the Alliance candidate finished second to Hedy Fry in 2000. The two factors that will decide this race are turnout and the Green Party vote. If Tim can get his voters out to the polls on election day and keep disaffected NDPers from going to the Greens, he might be able to hang on.
05/04/01 Highland Flood
The Liberal sweep of the west side and West End will be completed with this election, Stevenson going down to defeat along with Ian Waddell. They're both decent people, who work hard for their constituents, but they lack the almost iconic status of Svend Robinson or Libby Davies.
18/04/01 The Inside Scoop Email:
Stevenson will win this one, but not because of reasons listed above. Former Green party candidate, Jamie Lee Hamilton will not be running this time round. In fact, she has openly supported Tim Stevenson and will be organizing a fundraising dinner for Tim Stevenson, the NDP incumbent, rather than the Greens! The Green candidate is and will continue to be out of the country during the campaign, and will make no significant impact. This is tremendous news for the New Democrats, who could have faced an enormous vote split, maybe as high as 8 or 9%. Now, the Greens will not be likely to break 3 or 4%, and this 5% could be all Stevenson needs to win again. Also worth noting is that this riding has been NDP for three decades. Kim Campbell ran agains the NDP and lost here, and so did current Mayor Phil Owen. This is one seat doesn't go to socially regressive parties. Finally, Tim Stevenson will defeat Lorne Mayencourt because of Mayencourt's questionable past. The media is just now catching on to Mayencourt's history, which includes bankruptcy, failure to disclose (with regard to his nomination as a candidate), misinformation as to his source of income, and various scandals with charitable organizations both in New York City and Vancouver. The West Ender newspaper is just grabbing this stuff now, and if it is shown that Mayencourt lied to the Liberal party about his financial past, he could actually lose the nomination and be forced out of the race or to run as an independent. This is actually a rather major scandal, and will cost the Liberals this seat (and depending on the media coverage, maybe cost some points in the polls), which they otherwise could have won. During the last campaign, the NDP started 30% behind in the polls provincially, and Stevenson ended up winning by a hefty 15% margin. With much thanks owed to the Greens, Mayencourt's shady past, and the historical voting paterns of Vancouver-Burrard, this is a win for Tim Stevenson and the NDP.
20/04/01 BC Political Junkie Email:
It will be interesting to see if the media finds any credibility in "Scoop"'s unsubstantiated mud-slinging regarding Lorne Mayencourt. I won't be holding my breath. This sounds more like the kind of desperate rumour-mongering in which losing campaigns and parties engage when the real issues aren't playing in their favour. Mayencourt's campaign has had a fully staffed phone bank buzzing every night for the last five or six weeks. He has already identified most of his vote, and now just has to work on turning it out on election day. The NDP, on the other hand, has a very weak ground game -- they can't even scare up enough die-hards for events with the Premier, let alone staff a phone bank. One more factor to consider -- the "traditional voting patterns" of this riding that Scoop talked about can be tossed out the window this time, as the demographics have changed considerably. There are countless new highrise condos in the Yaletown and False Creek area are very upscale, and very definitely not part of the NDP core constituency. This is the area where Mayencourt is finding a goldmine of support. Stevenson is toast, as is the rest of their caucus.
23/04/01 EP Email:
To suggest the "very upscale" highriser are not part of NDP constituency is rather ignorant. Unlike the "very upscale" in traditional high-income area (eg West end, West van...), downtown "upscaler" are much more progressive and are more likely to support centre left political candidates. This is ture when you look at the NDP/Liberal trend in DT toronto, the PQ lock in DT Montreal (although they voted overwhelmingly "NO"), and Democratic support in most (most, not all) major cities (especially NYC and various New England metropolis). Perhaps we can tied this trend to all the trendy young professionals, minorities, gays and arts community that reside in DT. Afterall, it is rather difficult to be part of the downtown culture if you are not progressive.
25/04/01 The Inside Scoop\ Email:
Well, actually, what I have to say about Lorne Mayencourt is not unsubstantiated. Under the BC Liberal constitution, Mayencourt was required to file documents regarding his source of income. He managed to leave out information about collection Employment Insurance from HRDC as recently as August (about the time he won the Liberal nomination). His company 'Really Good Events' is praised on the HRDC website. This is because it was started with money from HRDC under their program for persons out of work to start their own businesses. Mayencourt excluded all of this on his submissions. More importantly, Mayencourt also excluded information about his personal bankruptcy. He took roughly $40,000 from his RSPP, gave it to a charity, declared bankruptcy so that he qualified for EI, and then lived on money from wealthy friends, which if he was running for Premier, would certainly be called a bribe. I don't actually think this money was meant in the means of influence. To Lorne's credibility, I don't actually think he's at all corrupt. He's just a social butterfly with wealthy friends. HRDC might be interested to know that he had a source of income other than EI, but the worst they could do is ask for the EI money to be paid back. The danger for Mayencourt is not that HRDC will find out about all of this, but rather that some moralistic head strong Liberal will call him on it, and challenge his nomination. Mayencourt is no favourite of Campbell's, and with such a strong majority in any case, Campbell might be tempted to oust Mayencourt, and replace him with a more 'favourable' candidate. I doubt this will happen, but if the newspapers do pick up this scandal, it could hurt Mayencourt's credibility, and either split the vote to fringe party, or send it over to Stevenson. Also, polling in Yaletown and Coal Harbour, in what should be Liberal polls, is not overwhelmingly anything. Coal Harbour actually seems to be leaning towards Stevenson, and Yaletown, predictably, is leaning Liberal. If money was the only thing on these people's minds, it should have been a Liberal sweep. If Mayencourt puts more focus on these areas, he could probably take them. Geographically, Lorne's problem is the West End, which even he, unwisely, conceded to Stevenson and the NDP. Mayencourt's biggest concern is convnincing the gay community that the Liberals aren't anti-gay when it comes to image, a task that might be too difficult, even for a local gay candidate. Well, I hope that substantiates some of my earlier comments. Oh, and I almost forgot. Mayencourt's history in NYC never went to trial, and charges were never pressed, however he was investigated. His depature was timely enough that the charity was left without him, and decided to move on. Regrettably, this is one note that is rather difficult to substantiate, having never actually been to New York, and it being in another country. Cheers to all.
26/04/01 Mark R.
Looking at the numbers, one would be pretty hard up to predict an NDP victory in this riding given the NDP's lower in the polls than the Green Party in the Vancouver area (Ipso-Reid). Having said that, this one "could" go NDP given Tim's work in the gay community. Also, take into consideration the fact that, unlike most ridings in BC, former Reform BC voters would not likely vote Liberal as they would in most other ridings. Why? Most former Reform BC supporters are against homosexuality. They could not vote for Lorne with God looking over their shoulder in the booth. I do believe however that the arguement on the street "better to have an openly gay MLA in government than the keep the BC Liberals socially moderate" is starting to resonate with the gay community. I cannot predict an outcome in this riding at this time until I see more information on this area. As it stands, the prediction is correct: "too close to call".
27/04/01 SV Email:
This riding is still too close to call, despite previous references to the polls, but rather than be a fence-sitter I'll hazard the guess. I find it interesting that reliance is made above to the numbers generated from a scientific poll, but then see broad generalizations made in almost the same breath about those who voted Reform last time. [I'm not one of them, either, for what it's worth] While I'm sure that scientific polling may very well support that assumption, I would not be surprised if it was an inaccurate assumption. A good many of those would be considered "right wing" are fiscally conservative but want the government to keep its nose out of deciding "morality." The more astute recognize that many social issues are neither "right" nor "left." That said, where the 1996 Reform and PDA votes go this time around is, in my estimation, not a factor. I am surprised that having "an openly gay MLA in government than the Opposition" would be a factor to swing votes, because that ignores the fact that Ted Nebbeling is certain to keep his seat in West Vancouver-Garibaldi. What might be more of a factor would be a perception that it would be better to have a greater number of openly gay MLAs in government, and thus avoid what otherwise starts to look like tokenism. The point of all this is that all these supposed factors will play a negligible role. The real factor favouring the incumbent is that he is well known and I would not be surprised if he is more popular than his party. I suspect voters in this riding are like voters in any other riding in the city. They are not a homogenous group that is any different than any other voter in the rest of Vancouver. Downtowners are probably just as anxious to rid themselves of this government and are either going to vote against the NDP or for the Liberals. Finally, while the signs don't tell the entire tale, in my walks through the neighbourhood (I don't live in this riding but spend a great deal of time there) I've noticed very few NDP signs, and have yet to see a Green Party sign. That doesn't mean the votes aren't out there, they just might not be advertised.
01/05/01 Email:
I have been very concerned to see Vancouver-Burrard Liberal candidate Lorne Mayencourt's long past personal bankruptcy mentioned in the media. These mentions seem intended to malign Lorne and I find that unacceptable. The reality is that Lorne Mayencourt did something selfless that few people would be willing to do - he used his own money to keep Friends For Life going. He made a personal sacrifice to ensure the survival of a cause that was deeply important to him. Although in doing so, Lorne took a personal hit, he left Friends For Life in great shape. Because of Lorne's steely determination, this organization flourished and now provides vital care for more than 1,300 people. In founding Friends For Life and making sure it survived Lorne has improved thousands of lives. The enormous difference Lorne has made to so many is evident in the love and gratitude that countless people in the community feel for him.
02/05/01 S.Schneider Email:
In a riding full of disgruntled leaky condo owners this election would be a perfect opportunity for voters to express their true feelings towards our mainstream poiticians. In the televised debate on April 30 Gordon Campbell was asked directly about how he would handle the leaky condo situation and all he said is that he agrees that all repairs should be PST- and GST-free. Thanks for nothing, Mr. Campbell. Tim Stephenson, of course, has not done anything in this regard throughout his mandate so we know where he stands. [partisan text edited] At the very least, having a Marijuana Party MLA in Victoria would reflect the fact that there is a strong condemnation amongst British Columbians everywhere of the hypocrisy of Government towards issues of nature and issues of adult responsibility.
03/05/01 Michael Ensley
There will be a swing among the voters to savage an effective oppositon party to oppose the Campbell liberals. Tim Stevenson will benefits from this and will be able to save this seat for the NDP.
04/05/01 aaperret Email:
One sure sign that NDP supporters are starting to panic is the unfounded attempt to discredit BC Liberal candidate Lorne Mayencourt. Unsubstantiated rumours posted by an anonymous malcontent will not turn the tide for a government that has a decade of mismanagement under its belt. Voters are ready for a change from the decade of fudge-it budgets and economic decline served up by our current government. Lorne Mayencourt has a history of community activism in and commitment to Vancouver-Burrard that will make him a dedicated representative of us in Victoria, and no unfounded rumour campaign can change that.
06/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
The recent anti-gay comments by Vancouver-Kensington Liberal candidate Patrick Wong will help swing the gay community behind Tim Stevenson in this riding. Wong denied the comments in one interview with a Chinese paper this week but never disavowed earlier statements along the same lines. Campbell made a serious error in not disavowing Wong's comments, which could hurt the Liberals in several other close Vancouver ridings as well.
07/05/01 Interested Voter Email:
A clear indication of the continued desperation in NDP ranks occurred yesterday when, according to news reports, Stevenson himself intervened at a pizza parlour to chastize the owner for displaying a Liberal sign. Perhaps the small business owner is simply sending a message that the NDP has done nothing but undermine entrepreneurs for the past ten years. Mayencourt is "standing proud" in the midst of a scurrilous underhanded whisper campaign by handful of ndp hangers-on. It will be the voters who send the message of "shame" to these people on May 16th - and decisively so.
08/05/01 Vancouver Sun Frances Bula
MLA, challenger joust over AIDS group's ad
Lorne Mayencourt has accused B.C. Persons with AIDS of "selling out" its members when it recently bought an ad in a local paper thanking Vancouver-Burrard's NDP MLA Tim Stevenson, for his work. BCPWA credited Stevesnosn with gaining an extra $300 a month in benefits for the disabled and chronically ill.
Mayencourt's comments ran in XTRA WEST, a weekly newspaper catering to a gay audience in Vancouver.
"It's very disturbing to be attacked by a politician acting out of self-serving political opportunism," Glen Hillson, the chair of B.C. Persons with AIDS, said Monday.
Stevenson's achievement has received praise from AIDS groups across the country, Hillson says.
04/05/01 Vancouver Courier Kevin Kinghorn
Liberals on defensive downtown
09/05/01 EP Email:
What's wrong with working in a bath house? The gay community as a whole should be smart enough not to someone who belive in "good-fag-bad-fag" to represent them. Mayencourt represents the type of gays that think "it's those sluts/flammers/drags/twinks/trannies that make the gay community looks bad". I guess the typical self proclaim "fiscally conservative, social progressive" is not that progressive and tolerant after all.
08/05/01 The Inside Scoop Email:
As per my previous comments, it is not surprising that the media is beginning to pick up on some of Mayencourt's past. Now it seems that it is his present that is beginning to dog him in the riding. Word spreads like wildfire, and from what I hear, Mayencourt's performance at all candidate's meetings has not been impressive. The Liberal Candidate is quoted as having told a woman to 'shut up' at the first all candidates meeting, and has gone the way of Daniel Lee and Patrick Wong in not showing up for others. As NW reported tonight, Mayencourt did not show for an all candidates meeting in his own riding today. No Liberal was there in his place, either. Not only will this hurt Mayencourt in a riding where a candidate's behaviour really does matter, but it will hurt him in that the polling I was leaked indicates that this riding is neck and neck. More over, this is one riding where disappearing Liberals will affect the vote. The media has not been flattering of Stevenson, but Mayncourt's past and present are dogging his future. The reasons as to why Mayencourt might be faltering with only a week left might puzzle some, but my guess is that the stress is getting to him. To pull another nugget out of Mayencourt's past, alcohol was often a way he dealt with stress in the past, having struggles as an alcoholic before. I don't ever fault anybody for alcoholism, I myself having once had the affliction. However, if Lorne has hit the bottle, it could explain his poor performance recently. If Mayencourt wants to break this deadlock, he will need to shape his act up, and fast. Otherwise, my prediction of a Tim Stevenson NDP victory stands.
08/05/01 s. mal Email:
Despite his party's unstoppable lead in the polls, Lorne Mayencourt is in danger of becoming one of the few B.C. Liberals who doesn't make it to the legislature on May 16. That's because of damning press coverage of Mayencourt over the last couple of weeks including a report in today's Vancouver Sun documenting a rather partisan attack he made on a local AIDS support group. Last week in the Vancouver Courier Mayencourt -- in a reference to a webposter (probably this site) -- threatened to "sue their f***ing ass" or something like that. In the same article he said he'd "cream" Stevenson on election day. I don't think the voters in this riding have much time for this kind of on-the-record profanity or arrogance. I'm sure his less-than-stellar performance in print is alienating would-be campaign workers. This will be a close race. With a commanding lead in the province-wide polls for the Liberals, Mayencourt should just disappear until election day, no matter how bad it looks. But quite frankly, I think Mayencourt is damaged goods. NDP incumbent Stevenson seems to be running a tight campaign in a riding with a long NDP history. I'm calling this one for Stevenson.
10/05/01 ireid Email:
Mayencourts campaign team is overflowing with volunteers; Stevenson's offices are not. (By the way, Stevenson's offices are in the wonderfully ironic location of an old mausoleum style bank building.) The all candidate meeting last night highlighted the fundamental NDP problem in this campaign. Stevenson focussed on gay and lesbian issues where Mayencourt is very hard to attack successfully while Mayencourt tackled broader questions as well. Stevenson was not helped by his gratuitous attack on an immigrant pizza parlour owner as a liar because his account of the pressures put on him by the NDP to carry their signs didn't agree with Stevenson's. (It's unclear Stevenson knew the owner was in attendance and thus may have believed he could get away with it but it was not an example of honourable conduct). It's a suprise that the NDP have put up as weak a campaign as they have in this winnable riding but they do seem to have relied on mudslinging to avoid discussions of their record. It may be that their shortage of volunteers prevents them from being effective in the hard work of on the ground get-out-the-vote campaigning so they have had to fall back on increasingly shrill attacks on opponents. Net: Lack of volunteers means defeat, especially in an election where the trends are against you. Liberal victory
11/05/01 Province Michael Smyth
Muck flying in gay battlezoneForget all those stereotypes you might have in your head that gay guys can't fight.
The toughest, grittiest war of the entire election campaign is being waged by openly gay rivals Tim Stevenson and Lorne Mayencourt in Vancouver-Burrard.
Under normal circumstances, NDP cabinet minister Stevenson would win this one in a walk: The riding has been NDP holy ground for 30 years, mainly under the late, great MLA Emery Barnes.
Not this time. Stevenson, a United Church minister, better say his prayers. He'll need all the help he can get to keep the streak alive.
Fortunately for Stevenson, the biggest ally in the fight of his life turns out to be Mayencourt, who's hot-headed temper, personal-finance headaches and campaign-trail gaffes are taking a toll.
The partial list:
  • The AIDS activist had to retract his statement that Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell marched in the Gay Pride parade. Actually, Campbell's been an annual no-show.
  • He told a woman at an all-candidates meeting to "shut up" and told the Vancouver Courier he'd find whoever's spreading rumours on the Internet about him and "sue their f****** ass."
  • He admitted to declaring bankruptcy twice, suggesting he'd put up five per cent of his future MLA's salary to pay creditors.
  • Things turned particularly nasty when Mayencourt attacked the charity group B.C. Persons With AIDS for running a newspaper ad thanking Stevenson.
    There's more muck flying in this one than at mud-wrestling night at the nudie bar.
    Yesterday, Stevenson's campaign manager labelled Mayencourt "a twice-bankrupt, potty-mouthed party boy." Mayencourt has fired back, promising to "cream" Stevenson in the polls on May 16. Fellas, fellas: Better take a couple of cold showers. But not until after election day. In a campaign sorely lacking drama, at least these guys are actually having a competitive fight.
    The New Democrats are pouring their strained resources into the Stevenson campaign. Maybe that's not surprising. Stevenson's very pally with Premier Ujjal Dosanjh (Dosanjh even cruised voters in a gay bar with him) and is reaping the benefits with strong support from the party's central campaign. Compare that to a guy in Dosanjh's doghouse: Forests Minister Gordon Wilson won his Powell River seat by a landslide in 1996, but he's been frozen out by NDP HQ. Sometimes it's all about who you know. Though that doesn't mean Stevenson doesn't deserve the support. He's a cabinet minister who stayed clean throughout all the NDP scandals. He showed rare bravery when speaking out against his own government's expansion of gambling.
    He's one of the few NDP MLAs I know who deserves another chance, this time in Opposition
  • 10/05/01 Westender Editorial
    FOOT-IN-MOUTH-MAYENCOURT (page 5 editorial)
    The premier may have conceded defeat ("I get it," he told reporters Tuesday after being hit with yet another doom-and-gloom poll) but that hasn't stopped some NDP MLAs from bringing out the big guns. They were shot in the form of press releases from the Vancouver-Burrard and Vancouver-Hastings ridings. The downtown MLA's latest spin leads with the headline, "Liberal candidate promises to use government salary to pay off bankruptcy debts", after last Saturday's public all-candidates meeting at the West End community centre. Lorne Mayencourt pledged he would dedicate five per cent of his MLA's salary (that would be our money) to pay his creditors. If that weren't enough, Tim Stevensoon pointed out(as did a number of Westender readers -- see page 7) than his main opponent requested that an outspoken woman at the meeting "please shut up" (that's gotta hurt). With rookie errors like this, it's no wonder the Liberal strategy in the last week of the B.C. campaign is to resist saying much at all, since they're pretty well a shoe-in anyway. Making sure that strategy doesn't go unnoticed, Joy MacPhail's campaigners have issued a "Missing" poster of Vancouver-Hastings Liberal candidate Daniel Lee ("This man has been missing from every single Vancouver-Hastings debate. If found, please report him to the voters."). NDPers might as well grab their jollies where they can, because the results of the election are bound to sober up the party.
    13/05/01 David P
    For the record, I am actively involved in Tim Stevenson's campaign so my prediction cannot be considered unbiased. Nevertheless, in response to a comment made earlier, I would like to say that although additional volunteers are always welcome, Tim's campaign has exceeded the goal the campaign manager set for telephone canvassing. We began this election with modest expectations concerning volunteer involvement but we have been very pleasantly surprised with the numbers that have turned out. Provincially, it is an uphill struggle for our party and we thought that this might discourage volunteers. But the people in our constituency seem to be optimistic about the local race and are willing to work for Tim. And, although it would be wrong for me to disclose actual numbers, I must say that our canvassing is producing results that fuel the optimism most of us feel.
    13/05/01 Credible Voice Email:
    To change this seat to NDP win is preposterous. What's even more preposterous is the personal attacks on Lorne Mayencourt taking place on this very site. The Liberals will win this seat because the numbers don't lie. With the NDP vote gutted province-wide, there is no chance Stevenson is going to buck the trend. The conventional wisdom, if one is to believe some of the postings, is that the West End is 100% gay. Well, no, believe it or not, there are still some straight people living downtown and they will vote like the rest of BC - Liberal. As for the gay community, Mayencourt's community involvement will blunt any momentum that Stevenson could generate there.
    13/05/01 s. mal Email:
    I walk up and down Denman all the time and I really have to challenge the comments made by i reid above re: volunteers. I'm not sure about during the day, but at night, the Stevenson HQ is hopping with phoners. I never see more than 1/2 dozen folks in Lorne's more high rent HQ down the street. That doesn't mean Lorne's campaign isn't phoning -- they just aren't phoning with volunteers. In fact, a Vancouver Sun article yesterday (A12 -- Campbell pal bared as head of agency Liberals must utilize) says all Liberal candidates must pay for and participate in a central phone canvassing service. The same article says the owner of the service -- JP Shason -- was also responsible for vetting the current crop of Liberal candidates and that presumably includes Lorne Mayencourt. Given the many gaffes committed by Mayencourt in this campaign, the Liberals better hope that Shason's phone canvassing services are better than his vetting skills. Three days to go until E-Day. Tim Stevenson's folks will have to work hard to overcome the province-wide polling gap for the NDP. But in my view, many potential Lib voters will just stay home rather than support a loose-cannon like Mayencourt. The Libs are going to win the general election so they don't need Mayencourt in caucus anyway.
    13/05/01 B.J. Email:
    I predict, as do all who have been watching this riding, that Stevenson will win. It is clear that Tim is a hard working intelligent man, and as a united church reverend, a community minded man with a strong moral conscience. Mayencourt however, is simply an attention addicted party-boy riding on the coat-tails of his rich friends. Nice to have at a party, but definitely not MLA calibre. Of course this is all just a personal analysis.
    13/05/01 DMB
    Before the election writ was dropped I picked Lorne to narrowly win this riding and I am going to stick with that prediction. The latest Compas poll #'s for Vancouver, Burnaby and Tri Cities are Lib 57% NDP 16 % Greens 17% - the +- margin is 7%. The Liberal and NDP are down and Greens up from the May 3 poll. A vote split is becoming a real possibility in many of the Lower Mainland ridings and this is what may happen in Burrard - also what impact will the Marijuana Party leader Marc Emery have - given that leaders of alternate parties often run ahead of their poll #'s - even if he takes 5% of the vote this is more likely to help Lorne than Tim. In closing I agree with Mike Smyth about Tim - however the numbers may not be there on May 16, 2001.
    14/05/01 A. Email:
    Mayencourt's checkered past has raised many doubts in the downtown public as to his fitness for public office. Add that to the anti-gay comments that are trickling out the mouths of various Liberals, and the conditions are ripe for Stevenson to squeak back in.
    14/05/01 BC Political Junkie Email:
    I think we would all agree that this one will be closer than most on election night. Most folks would also agree that in a close election, organization and volunteers are the most precious commodity, especially when it comes to identifying your supporters and turning them out on election day. Questions -- who do you think has more volunteers in this campaign? Who do you think has done more phone bank work? Who will have a slicker election day operation? The answer to all three is Mayencourt by a long shot. The NDP are finally showing a faint pulse in their old bedrock ridings, but it won't be enough. The changed demographics of the riding in the False Creek area, combined with a better organized campaign, will give Mayencourt the edge.
    15/05/01 gm Email:
    I am a long-time Liberal and will vote that way, but see Vancouver Burrard going NDP. It is a swing riding and I think the Liberal campaign is sitting on its laurels assuming that the Liberal vote in Yaletown and Bayshore will get out and vote for them. Having a knowledge of the riding, I think that those areas will have low turnout and that Stevenson will take the riding. I live in Yaletown and have not seen a sign of Liberal campaigning in my area.
    15/05/01 Email:
    I think, at the end of the day Wednesday, the liberals will win Burrard--but it will be closer than other seats.

    Submit Information here
    Back to Vancouver Index
    Back to BC 2001 Index
    Last Updated 16 May 2001
    Election Prediction Project -
    © 1999-2001 Milton Chan

    Email Webmaster