British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
People’s Front
BOYLAN, Charles
Green Party
Liberal Party
LEE, Daniel
New Democratic Party
Marijuana Party
Social Credit
WOOLSEY, Carrol Barbara
  Vancouver Hastings
Joy MacPhail

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:13.67%
Area (km2):14
Pop Density:3827.86

Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

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20/02/01 V.D. Email:
I am not about to call this riding, but this should be a close race, much closer than last time. The BC Liberals have a strong credible candidate with Daniel Lee, a Vancouver city councilor, and with the NDP membership at an all time low, the only thing that could help Joy is her popularity (if any) and not the party's. For she was the finance minister who resigned in protest under Glen Clark.
22/02/01 Bernard Schulmann
I am torn on this one. In the past this would have been a slam dunk for the NDP, now it is unclear. The NDP did in the area federally, but then Joy is not as good as her fed counterpart. Also federally the anti NDP vote was spilt and provincially that is not the case. I call a toss up because I can not bring myself to say Liberal in every riding even though every indication is that is what we are headed for.
06/03/01 love elections
One of the top 4 mla's,in the legislature(macphail,christy clark, farnworth, and farrel-collins). Macphail will win in this NDP stronghold. Look to her to help breath life into the NDP in opposition.
18/03/01 DMB Email:
I tend to agree with love elections once again - Joy will probably hold onto this one for the NDP and use it as a base to rebuild the party - If Joy loses here then the NDP may not win a seat anywhere on election night. Joy's political smarts plus what's left of the party election machinery will focus on this one.
20/03/01 Ian Gregson Email:
I think the Green party will do far better in this election than your predictions.
26/03/01 kyle Email:
Long history of voting NDP, this riding will return Macphail again this election.
29/03/01 Email:
Joy will win on election night in Hastings, unfortunately that's all, the province will go Campbell, she is still very popular personally, and that will pull her through with little trouble in Hastings.
04/04/01 BC Political Junkie Email:
You guys just don't get it, do you? There is a hurricane brewing out there, which means that even if a riding has "a long history of supporting the NDP", and even if the local MLA is "personally very popular", it doesn't matter a rat's tail end. That stuff matters in elections that are reasonably close, but this one isn't going to be reasonably close. How does 66% - 17% grab you? No one, and I mean no one, holds onto their seat with numbers like that. To make matters worse for Joy, the Greens will likely grab a chunk of her traditional vote amongst the Commercial Drive bohemian crowd. As the COMPAS poll indicated, the rest of the NDP vote is too despondent or disinterested to turn out. I know it's hard to imagine the NDP losing a riding like this, and it's hard to imagine a 79-0 shut out, but start imagining it, because it's happening. Those who are predicting that the NDP will somehow recover enough to win seats like this one are doing so only on blind faith -- all the evidence points to a slaughter of epic proportions.
05/04/01 Highland Flood
MacPhail just might scrape through, but it'll be close. I think the Greens will mount a strong campaign here with candidate Ian Gregson.
09/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Joy is in real trouble in this traditional stronghold, but may still be able to hang on. The Green factor could be reduced by recent NDP environmental announcements like the ban on grizzly bear hunting and the saving of the Great Bear rainforest. Most of the Commercial Drive bohos are actually in Jenny Kwan's Mount Pleasant riding, and Jenny will win there easily. The key issues here are poverty, housing and there is real anger against the government over some of the harsh BC Benefits policies. That, plus the Chinese vote trending Liberal, will make it a very close election race that I'm not ready to call yet.
17/04/01 A. Email:
Redistribution has shifted the western border of this constituency all the way to....Commercial Drive! Solid NDP territory, even these days. With MacPhail's high-profile position as campaign co-chair, expect to see her face on the news regularly. She'll win this one again.
18/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
News flash: the Liberal candidate in this riding, Daniel Lee, has been attacked in the media for intervening on behalf of a landlord against a 77-year old female tenant who was fighting to get the landlord to heat her apartment! It's still too close to call, IMHO, but this is not good for Lee and makes a lousy kick-off for the Liberal campaign.
18/04/01 pundidit Email:
Well it is so nice to see Daniel Lee showing the Liberal colours so early. His assisting a slum lord with regards to no heat in a apartment building for 3 weeks with elderly tenants, gives a one vivable candidate no credibility at all. Or credibilty to slum lords. This gives Ms Mcphail a greater leg up......but watch out for the green vote
19/04/01 DMB
To punditit - Daniel Lee was wrong to phone a police officer regarding this matter but can he tell me why Jenny Kwan the harding working, caring MLA for the area that the apartment building is located in has been very silent - nothing to do with the fact that it is a Chinese slum lord - Even without this incident Joy would have beaten Daniel Lee.
25/04/01 Interested Voter Email:
This one should also move to the "too close" column. Latest Ipsos Reid shows the Green Party besting the NDP in Vancouver Burnaby 16-13. Yesterday, a trip down Victoria Drive showed an equal number of Green to NDP signs. A short six months ago, this street was awash with Libby Davies NDP signs. Today I would suggest there are perhaps 1/10th the number of NDP signs as compared with last year. Only thing holding Daniel Lee from taking this one is his own mouth. If the Greens can continue with the momentum they are gaining (by not doing anything, just 'being there') they might be able to win a few of these previous NDP strongholds.
25/04/01 Bernard Schulmann
With the latest gaffee by Daniel Lee, Joy MacPhail might have an outside chance of winning here. Up until yesterday I would have said she has no chance of winning and I will set out my reasoning. 1) The split federally that allowed the NDP to win the riding is not happening provincially. 2) Joy Macphail has been an overly arrogant MLA - witness her blindly stupid comments at the launch of the NDP campaign about winning 40 seats. 3) The Drive is not natural NDP turf, it is much better Green or Marijuana Party turf. 4) The NDP has screwed up trtansit in much of the riding. 5) After 10 years of the NDP government, the eastside has not seen any material improvement in their situation 6) The people on Van Hastings would not have voted for the Socreds, but the BC Liberals are to the left of the Socreds and are within the pale for many more people.
Why Daniel Lee may manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 1) He is not sticking to the BC Liberal game plan and making uninformed comments 2) He has been an invisible NPA councilor 3) Does not seem to understand the role of a politician.
If the BC Liberals are smart, they would dump him as a candidate and get someone better qualified to run. If I had to put money a candidate, I would put it on Lee, but not much.
26/04/01 Mark R.
A few weeks ago, I would have said this riding would be too close to call. Then, Daniel Lee's public problem being hyped in the media would say this back to the incumbent Joy. Now however, after seeing the Deputy Premier become a public target at the cross-border rally against globalization (her kind of crowd), and the recent polls putting the Greens at or above 10% (Ipso-Reid) and the Liberals at 72%, I have to put this riding back in the "too close to call" slot. Why? Because unlike Jenny Kwan's riding (she won her seat with over 60% of the vote), Vancouver-Hastings gave the NDP about 54%. Given the huge drop in NDP support, Joy getting a pie thrown at her by someone who assumingly shares the same views on a political level, and the surge in Green support, Daniel Lee could still upset Joy. Additionally (but not substantially), the BC Liberal candidate here is sure to get over 90% of the former Reform BC vote and about 75% of the previous PDA voters. This would t!
27/04/01 Wilson Wong Email:
I drove up Victoria Drive yesterday and I was quite surprised at the number of lawn signs for Green Party candidate, Ian Gregson, who I think is a former Paralympian. I counted 5 houses with Green signs while in the same stretch I saw about 10 with NDP signs and 2 for the Liberals so maybe Gregson is right in saying that the Greens might do better than expected.
03/05/01 P. George Email:
In our riding Mr. Lee is like Gordon Campbell. I see Joy MacPhail speaking for the people but where is Mr Lee? Other N.D.P. candadates have come to talk to me, but no Liberals. I wonder why? Is it because I am a First Nation person? I can't vote for someone who wont tell me what they are going to do! I won't vote for someone who wont speak to us!I especially wont vote for someone who is to coward to go on a one on one live debate against each other like Mr. Lee and Gordon Campbell.
08/05/01 J Baldez
Last week's 'all candidates meeting' on the Bill Good Show was hilarious. Mr Lee, there not in person but on the phone, and obviously unfamiliar with local issues, frustrated Ms. McPhails attempts to corner him by simply reading from the Liberal Platform. It was great to see somebody out BS Joy Mcphail.
09/05/01 DMB
It is a good thing that I don't vote in this riding - Joy deserves to be kicked out but Daniel Lee is an embarrassment to the Liberal Party but judging by his sign show on 1st Ave. he does appear to have some support. The other problem for a Liberal like me in this riding is that a vote the Greens will probably elect Daniel Lee. Having Joy in opposition could be fun -perhaps she can enliven the legislature with another dancing ***** display. Joy will win this one narrowly and be one of two NDPers elected.
14/05/01 V.D.
Well after the poll in the paper, Joy: 44% Lee: 29% Gregson: 22% it looks like joy will keep her seat. If someone had told me at the beginning of the campaign that the Greens would be at 22% in Van-Hastings I would have thought that would mean a definate defeat for Joy, but with the campain (or lack of one) Lee has been running (plus all the bad press from his no-shows at debates) his support his lower that the liberals last election (34%), though I do expect the vote to be closer than the poll shows ( somewhere in the 30's), if the liberals get the vote out.
15/05/01 MC Email:
The Liberals aren't going to make heroic efforts to rescue this riding. If they were, they would have done so during the advance polling. During the last Federal election, there were news stories of both the Liberals and the NDP busing supporters to the advance polls; this election it's only the NDP that made the news (albeit for Mount Pleasant). Also, the Province story on this riding said that there was only one worker in the campaign office when they visited it. Not exactly an all-out effort. While 79 Liberals would certainly be convenient, Campbell's not in desparate need of one more backbencher. Another detail from the poll: the Liberals and the NDP are tied among men (37% each), but Macphail is leading among women 51-20. (Actually the Greens are second among women voters at 22%.)

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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