Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Hertsmere

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Hilary Broderick
Conservative Party:
W. James Clappison
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paul Thompson

Incumbent:
James Clappison

97 Result:
Beth Kelly
19,23038.2%
James Clappison
22,30544.3%
Ann Gray
6,46612.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,34874.03%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
11,47321.8%
30,43957.8%
10,36419.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,62379.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2411.8%
25-3921.8%
40-6527.0%
65 <19.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White95.9%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani1.6%
Other non-white1.8%

Employment:
Full Time63.5%
Part Time14.3%
Self Employed14.5%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed7.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.5%
II - Managerial/Technical38.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.5%
IV - Partly Skilled7.9%
V - Unskilled2.5%

Misc:
Own Residence72.1%
Rent Residence25.1%
Own Car(s)78.2%
Submissions
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02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
The Conservatives will win by upwards of 8,000. The last local elections saw the Conservatives outpoll Labour by 57% to 28%. I doubt they'll do quite so well this time round but the seat is currently looking very safe for them.
03/05/01 David McKee Email:david@mckee.ndo.co.uk
Easy Tory hold. In 1997, Labour held a majority of the borough council seats, and local girl Beth Kelly gave James Clappison a run for his money. Since then, the local council has reverted to Tory control. Local Labour activists are split, demoralised and largely inactive. Five weeks before the 1997 election, the local papers were full of letters by Labour supporters. This time round, hardly any. Labour and the LibDems are bottled up in their strongholds of Borehamwood and Bushey respectively. The local Tories are knocking loudly at both front doors. James Clappison should increase his personal vote: he piloted the Breeding and Sale of Dogs (Welfare) Act through the Commons two years ago. That should go down well with Hertsmere's doglovers! I'll be astonished if James Clappison does not double his majority.

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Last Updated 7 May 2001
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