Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Welwyn Hatfield

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Melanie J. Johnson
Conservative Party:
Grant J. Shapps
Liberal Democratic Party:
Daniel Cooke
UK Independence Party:
Malcolm Biggs

Incumbent:
Miss Melanie Johnson

97 Result:
Melanie Johnson
24,93647.1%
David Evans
19,34136.5%
Rodney Schwartz
7,16113.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,96878.59%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,55636.0%
27,13947.5%
9,14716.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,08983.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.1%
16-2412.2%
25-3922.4%
40-6527.1%
65 <19.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.9%
Black0.7%
Indian/Pakistani1.1%
Other non-white1.3%

Employment:
Full Time67.6%
Part Time15.2%
Self Employed10.1%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed6.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.9%
II - Managerial/Technical35.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.4%
IV - Partly Skilled12.7%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence59.1%
Rent Residence39.1%
Own Car(s)74.6%
Submissions
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02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
To close to call. The Tories led in the local elections of 1999 and 2000, but when the seat was held by the Tories in the 1980's it never looked safe for them. A classic marginal seat. Once it would have been held by whichever party won the general election, but Hertfordshire has been drifting to the right over the years. Either party could win, but by less than a 1000 votes.
03/0/01 LB Email:
Although the Tories slightly outpolled Labour in the local elections in May 2000, it was the only borough in the country where Labour gained control that year. Labour support should hold up best or even increase in affluent urban areas in SE England. Not a safe seat for Labour, not at all, but more likely a hold than a Tory gain.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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