Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Billericay

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Amanda N. Campbell
Conservative Party:
John C. Baron
Liberal Democratic Party:
Frank Bellard
UK Independence Party:
Nicholas Yeomans

Incumbent:
Mrs Teresa Gorman

97 Result:
Paul Richards
20,67737.3%
Teresa Gorman
22,03339.8%
Geoff Williams
8,76315.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,42072.40%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
11,91420.0%
34,27457.6%
13,27622.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,46480.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.9%
16-2412.9%
25-3922.6%
40-6527.6%
65 <15.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.1%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.7%
Other non-white0.9%

Employment:
Full Time64.8%
Part Time15.0%
Self Employed12.0%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed7.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.3%
II - Managerial/Technical35.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.4%
IV - Partly Skilled10.0%
V - Unskilled3.4%

Misc:
Own Residence75.4%
Rent Residence23.7%
Own Car(s)76.8%
Submissions
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13/05/01 J Smith Email:
This seat should be interesting to watch on election night. Labour and the Conservatives are very close here, which should result in a dogfight. It is almost impossible to predict, at this point, who will come out the winner. I'm leaning to Labour, but this early in the campaign it is too close to call.
15/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
A split in the local Conservative party in 1997 saw an Independent Conservative take nearly 3,000 votes. Assuming most of those return to the Conservatives this time, this should be a relatively easy hold.
15/05/01 LB Email:
I would be very surprised if Billericay fell to Labour, although it was indeed very close in 1997. The outgoing MP Teresa Gorman was an outspoken rebel against John Major's government and lost the whip in 1994-95 and she was opposed in the 1997 election by a 'Loyal Conservative' who won 6.1%. The new candidate John Baron, who was defeated in neighbouring Basildon in 1997, should reunite the Tory vote here. Labour need effectively a 4% swing to win and I doubt it will come off.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Teresa Gorman saw a 17% swing against her here and 1997 and survived anyway. This year is bound to be better for the Tories, and Billiericay is a traditional Tory seat. Conservative hold.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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