Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Braintree

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Alan A. Hurst
Conservative Party:
Brooks Newmark
Liberal Democratic Party:
Peter Turner
Green Party:
James E. Abbott
UK Independence Party:
Nicholas Westcott

Incumbent:
Alan Hurst

97 Result:
Alan Hurst
23,72942.7%
Tony Newton
22,27840.1%
Trevor Ellis
6,41811.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,57676.37%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
15,89027.4%
29,27850.5%
12,03920.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,93184.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.4%
16-2412.6%
25-3922.1%
40-6526.8%
65 <17.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.5%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.6%

Employment:
Full Time64.4%
Part Time15.4%
Self Employed12.3%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed7.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.4%
II - Managerial/Technical31.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.6%
IV - Partly Skilled13.1%
V - Unskilled5.2%

Misc:
Own Residence68.5%
Rent Residence29.5%
Own Car(s)75.7%
Submissions
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13/05/01 J Smith Email:
This is also a close seat, but sitting MPs usually have an advantage come election night. Labour's polling numbers will probably give them a boost. This one could be close, but will probably end up with Labour.
26/05/01 Peter Email:
Tories clearly worried because they are drafting in workers from London (they stick out a mile with suntans and shades!!). Very little visible support beyond the usual posters erected by farmers, Labour has posters in real peoples homes. Residents (including Tories) do not seem to be impressed by candidate lacking any local connection.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Except as a symptom of Labour solidifying its hold, I still have trouble thinking of Braintree as beyond the danger zone; after all, it *was* one of *the* ultra-surprise gains of '97 (from an upper-echelon cabinet minister, yet--and in an textbook illustration of tactical voting in practice, the LD vote was halved). The fine folk at Tory HQ must be pacing in circles, "this should *not* have been a Labour seat, this should *not* have been a Labour seat..."...at the rate things are going, they might have to replace the worn-out-by-the-pacing floorboards...

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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