Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Harlow

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
William E. Rammell
Conservative Party:
Robert H. Halfon
Liberal Democratic Party:
Lorna H. Spenceley
UK Independence Party:
Anthony Bennet

Incumbent:
Bill Rammell

97 Result:
Bill Ramell
25,86154.1%
Jerry Haynes
15,34732.1%
Lorna Spenceley
4,5239.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,81274.62%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
22,88142.8%
24,56846.0%
6,00211.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,45182.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.0%
16-2413.1%
25-3923.9%
40-6526.3%
65 <15.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.7%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani1.0%
Other non-white1.7%

Employment:
Full Time65.1%
Part Time14.9%
Self Employed10.2%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed9.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.0%
II - Managerial/Technical26.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.4%
IV - Partly Skilled15.7%
V - Unskilled3.7%

Misc:
Own Residence52.5%
Rent Residence46.2%
Own Car(s)71.9%
Submissions
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26/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Very similar to the other Essex New Town (Basildon). Like Basildon, it attracted people from North London and the East End, nearly all traditional Labour voters, but who bought shares in privatised industries, bought their Council houses, read the Sun and contributed to the Tory victories between 1979 and 1992. Like Basildon, they compensated by coming home to Labour in huge numbers in 1997. Harlow's returning officer doesn't get his ballot papers counted as quickly as his counterpart in Basildon, and announces the result later at night, so Harlow has never had the same iconic status for pundits and politicians. It is however as good a 'weathervane' as any. These aspirational swing voters like Tony Blair and think the Government is OK, they will stay with Labour.

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Last Updated 29 April 2001
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