Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Beckenham

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Richard F. Watts
Conservative Party:
Jacqueline A.H. Lait
Liberal Democratic Party:
Alex Feakes
UK Independence Party:
Christopher N. Pratt
Green Party:
Karen Moran

Incumbent:
Mrs Jacqui Lait

97 Result:
Robert Hughes
18,13133.4%
Piers Merchant
23,08442.5%
Rosemary Vetterle
9,85818.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,35074.65%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,34121.1%
35,15460.2%
9,76516.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,41377.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.8%
16-2412.4%
25-3924.6%
40-6526.3%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White93.0%
Black3.2%
Indian/Pakistani1.6%
Other non-white2.2%

Employment:
Full Time67.5%
Part Time12.2%
Self Employed12.1%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed7.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.3%
II - Managerial/Technical43.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)17.6%
IV - Partly Skilled6.5%
V - Unskilled2.3%

Misc:
Own Residence74.6%
Rent Residence24.1%
Own Car(s)71.1%
Submissions
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30/04/01 JR Email:
Labour had a great opportunity when Tory MP Piers Merchant resigned after revelations about his private life in October 1997. Labour were at the height of their post-election honeymoon and the Tories had imported Jacqui Lait, who had been turfed out by the voters in Hastings just months before. Lait held on by about 1200. Labour won't put up a huge fight here, and the Tories should win by about 5000-6000.
22/05/01 Initial Email:
Canvass returns suggest 'certain' Tory vote holding well above 40% with up to 15% saying they will 'possibly' vote Conservative. The opposition vote won't all pile behind Labour because the Lib Dems are stronger locally. Jacqui Lait will hold on by 5000-6000 votes.

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Last Updated 23 May 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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