Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Islington South and Finsbury

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Christopher R. Smith
Conservative Party:
Nicola Morgan
Liberal Democratic Party:
Keith Sharp

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Chris Smith

97 Result:
Chris Smith
22,07962.5%
David Berens
4,58713.0%
Sarah Ludford
7,51621.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
35,31663.67%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,36951.2%
9,81824.7%
9,23223.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
39,78873.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.6%
16-2412.7%
25-3927.2%
40-6524.1%
65 <17.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White84.7%
Black7.6%
Indian/Pakistani3.1%
Other non-white4.5%

Employment:
Full Time60.0%
Part Time9.4%
Self Employed11.8%
Government Schemes1.3%
Unemployed17.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.7%
II - Managerial/Technical28.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.0%
IV - Partly Skilled13.4%
V - Unskilled7.5%

Misc:
Own Residence22.2%
Rent Residence75.6%
Own Car(s)38.7%
Submissions
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24/04/01 DH Email:
The SDP came within a whisker of taking this seat in both 1983 and 1987, but now this seat has gradually swung towards Labour. However the Lib Dems remain a force in the area and now control Islington Council - this could be one to watch next time.
15/05/01 JL Email:
I agree that this could provide one of the "shock" results on 7 June. As already pointed out, LibDems gained control of Islington Council in January last year - but it should be noted that they hold virtually all the wards in the southern part of the borough which comprises this constituency, winning 55% of the vote in these wards in 1998. They have a dynamic candidate and organisation, while the sitting MP may be a Minister but has not made a major impact. 7The gap may appear huge, but could very easily vanish.
05/06/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
The strong SDP showing in the 1980s was a personal vote for a former Labour MP who switched sides. However, the LDs now control the council, and this could rub off on the Westminster result and cause an LD surge. But a Labour hold is the most likely result. I do hope for a strong showing for the "Stuckist" candidate, who is protesting about modern so-called art.

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Last Updated 5 June 2001
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