Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Richmond Park

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Barry Langford
Conservative Party:
Tom Harris
Liberal Democratic Party:
Dr. Jennifer L. Tonge
UK Independence Party:
Peter St. John Howe

Incumbent:
Dr Jenny Tonge

97 Result:
Sue Jenkins
7,17212.6%
Jeremy Hanley
22,44239.5%
Jenny Tonge
25,39344.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,85379.43%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,2118.8%
30,60951.8%
22,22537.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,05385.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.5%
16-2411.8%
25-3924.0%
40-6527.6%
65 <19.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White92.9%
Black0.9%
Indian/Pakistani2.2%
Other non-white4.0%

Employment:
Full Time65.7%
Part Time11.3%
Self Employed15.5%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed7.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional16.5%
II - Managerial/Technical49.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)11.1%
IV - Partly Skilled5.4%
V - Unskilled1.8%

Misc:
Own Residence67.7%
Rent Residence30.0%
Own Car(s)71.1%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
Since winning the reasonably safe Tory seat of Richmond Park in 1997 from Jeremy Hanley, Jenny Tonge has succeeded in building up a strong local presence for herself. She is supported by the Lib Dem-run Richmond Council which has, despite the Tory revival at local elections, remained remarkably stable and reasonably popular. Barring a major disaster, she should just about hang on this time round.
15/05/01 MH Email:
Rather than just hanging on it looks likely that Jenny Tonge will increase her majority. As a popular local MP, running a much more effective campaign than the Tories and with a fair Labour vote to squeeze Tonge could well turn this into a sfae Lib Dem seat.
15/05/01 JL Email:
I agree. Local recognition and support for Jenny Tonge will see her home whatever happens in the neighbouring seats.
22/05/01 Vas Kapsalis Email:vas@altavista.net
Jenny Tonge has been completely disinterest in the affairs of Richmond Park since she won the seat in 1997. Instead she has been more concerned with issues relating exclusively to her Lib Dem role within Parliament. The public in RIchmond have detected this, and a Conservative Majority of 5000 is the most probable out come.
03/06/01 PSR Email:
I have decided to predict Richmond Park in the form of an equation. WELL KNOWN LIB DEM + TACTICAL VOTING + TORIES DOING BADLY (LONDON) = LIB DEM HOLD.
03/06/01 JL Email:john.lefley@btinternet.com
I wonder who Vas has spoken to in the constituency? I was there yesterday, and - whatever political views individuals had - Jenny Tonge was universally respected. There were also some signs of further tactical switches to LibDem by people who voted Labour in '97. It will be a tough fight, but Tonge will win.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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