Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Leominster

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Dr. Stephen J.S. Hart
Conservative Party:
William E. Wiggin
Liberal Democratic Party:
Celia M. Downie
Green Party:
Philippa Bennett
UK Independence Party:
Christopher Kingsley

Incumbent:
Peter Temple-Morris

97 Result:
Terence James
8,83117.5%
Peter Temple-Morris
22,88845.3%
Terry James
14,05327.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,55376.60%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,29412.3%
28,83756.3%
14,23627.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,17881.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.5%
16-2411.3%
25-3918.2%
40-6529.5%
65 <22.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.6%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.0%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time53.1%
Part Time15.7%
Self Employed23.6%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.4%
II - Managerial/Technical38.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)9.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.6%
IV - Partly Skilled14.7%
V - Unskilled3.8%

Misc:
Own Residence73.0%
Rent Residence22.1%
Own Car(s)82.8%
Submissions
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14/05/01 JL Email:
This will be close. Local reports are that the Labour vote in Leominster itself is being heavily squeezed by the LibDems.
17/05/01 Paul R davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
I believe the University has incorrectly summarised JL's submission as meaning Labour are challenging the Conservatives. I agree with JL that the Liberals could well run them close. The picture is clouded by the defection of the retiring incumbent to Labour during the last Parliament. This will not have any effect on Labour's vote, which for many years here has been one of their lowest anywhere. However, the loss of Peter Temple-Morris's own profile after 27 years as M.P. certainly threatens the Tories. However, the Liberals are only recording 13% nationally at present and have "flattered to deceive" here before. I am confident the Conservatives will hold on.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
The only thing really Labour about this seat is the sitting member's chosen party--and he's chosen to retire rather than chicken-run like Shaun Woodward. And the fact of the *actual* prevailing anti-Tory pattern in Leominster favouring LD suggests the tempting possibility, with added gains in Ludlow and Tewkesbury, of a big Yellow Kingdom encompassing the England-Wales mid-border region. But that seems a bit overambitious to expect in 2001...or maybe not?

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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