Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Tamworth

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Brian D. Jenkins
Conservative Party:
Luise Gunter
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jennifer Pinkett
UK Independence Party:
Paul Sootheran

Incumbent:
Brian Jenkins

97 Result:
Brian Jenkins
25,80851.8%
Ann Lightbown
18,31236.7%
Jennifer Pinkett
4,0258.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,85474.18%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,80439.2%
26,20949.3%
5,2759.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,11381.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1623.3%
16-2413.6%
25-3923.1%
40-6527.0%
65 <13.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.7%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.5%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time63.1%
Part Time16.0%
Self Employed10.0%
Government Schemes1.8%
Unemployed9.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.5%
II - Managerial/Technical29.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)33.0%
IV - Partly Skilled16.0%
V - Unskilled3.5%

Misc:
Own Residence71.0%
Rent Residence27.8%
Own Car(s)75.4%
Submissions
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05/06/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
The '92 results might give some cause for doubt, but I strongly suspect that Jenkins will win again by a fairly convincing margin.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Like Basingstoke, Tamworth's one of those places with a New Townishness regardless of its New Town status or lack thereof--fair Labour-bait formula around these parts. Jenkins gained the predecessor seat on a typical Major-era monster byelection swing, and then held Tamworth by a more orthodox if still healthy general-election margin over the widow of the Tory MP he replaced. It remains on the broad Tory target cards, but the possibilities now look more vague than Hague...

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Last Updated 5 June 2001
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