Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Liverpool, Garston

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Maria Eagle
Conservative Party:
Helen Sutton
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paula C. Keaveney

Incumbent:
Maria Eagle

97 Result:
Maria Eagle
26,66761.3%
Nigel Gordon-Johnson
6,81915.7%
Flo Clucas
8,25019.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,48265.14%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
25,21451.1%
12,34025.0%
10,68021.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,33870.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.8%
16-2412.0%
25-3919.9%
40-6526.3%
65 <21.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.5%
Black0.7%
Indian/Pakistani0.6%
Other non-white1.1%

Employment:
Full Time57.2%
Part Time15.4%
Self Employed7.5%
Government Schemes2.6%
Unemployed17.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.2%
II - Managerial/Technical24.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.3%
IV - Partly Skilled15.0%
V - Unskilled6.5%

Misc:
Own Residence59.3%
Rent Residence39.5%
Own Car(s)53.4%
Submissions
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22/04/01 NG Email:
With a massive 18,000 majority, it's hard to see Labour losing here. However, it will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems are able to consolidate the second-placing they won last time, profiting from their new-found high-profile status in Liverpool with a huge majority on the city council.
19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
The LibDems have picked an unknown out-of-town candidate and are putting in very little effort. This is odd - they have the smallest Labour majority of the 5 in Lpool here, also it has the largest middle class element (7000 Tory votes susceptible to a tactical squeeze). They have made particularly sweeping advances here in the Council-estate wards of Speke, Netherley and the Valley which are all LD at local level but used to produce 80+% of the vote for Labour in local elections. Many of their councillors and activists however seem quite parochial and not that interested in the big national picture. Maria Eagle to win comfortably.

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Last Updated 26 April 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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