Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Ribble Valley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Marcus R.B. Johnstone
Conservative Party:
Nigel M. Evans
Liberal Democratic Party:
Michael Carr

Incumbent:
Nigel Evans

97 Result:
Marcus Johnstone
9,01315.8%
Nigel Evans
26,70246.7%
Michael Carr
20,06235.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,22178.75%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,2548.7%
31,62952.6%
23,00038.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,16584.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2412.1%
25-3920.0%
40-6529.9%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.3%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani1.0%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time62.8%
Part Time17.4%
Self Employed15.2%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed3.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.2%
II - Managerial/Technical41.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.6%
IV - Partly Skilled8.9%
V - Unskilled2.3%

Misc:
Own Residence84.9%
Rent Residence12.4%
Own Car(s)81.5%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
This will probably be a Tory hold on the night but the element of tactical voting cannot be discounted, not while memories of the Lib Dems by-election victory here back in the early 90s linger. With a large-ish and unstable Labour vote to squeeze, there is just a chance that Lib Dem Mike Carr (who will gain votes for staying power alone) will pull it off this time. That he didn't manage it last time doesn't bode that well but it's safer to say that the Ribble Valley is just a little bit too close to call this time round.

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Last Updated 18 April 2001
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