Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Rochdale

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Lorna Fitzsimons
Conservative Party:
Elaina Cohen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paul Rowen

Incumbent:
Ms Lorna Fitzsimons

97 Result:
Lorna Fitzsimmons
23,75849.4%
Mervyn Turnberg
4,2378.8%
Liz Lynne
19,21340.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,08270.16%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,07637.7%
12,37823.2%
20,20437.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,28777.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1624.2%
16-2413.4%
25-3921.0%
40-6524.4%
65 <16.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White85.2%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani13.3%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time60.7%
Part Time14.0%
Self Employed10.2%
Government Schemes1.8%
Unemployed13.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.5%
II - Managerial/Technical26.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.7%
IV - Partly Skilled18.1%
V - Unskilled6.8%

Misc:
Own Residence60.8%
Rent Residence38.0%
Own Car(s)54.7%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
Rochdale was one of the few Lib Dem losses in 1997. Popular local MP Liz Lynne will be a difficult act to follow but her successor as Lib Dem candidate will build on a very long heritage of Liberalism in this part of the world. The Lib Dems are not quite as strong here as in Oldham but a small swing from Labour will put this seat within the Lib Dem grasp. It will be extremely tightly-fought but if the Lib Dems gain any seats this time round, this may well be one of them.
06/06/01 Email:dadge@hotmail.com
I agree that this might (but only might) be a Lib-Dem let-down. They have a new candidate fighting an incumbent (like Phil Woolas in nearby Rochdale, an ex-boss of the National Union of Students) which makes things difficult, plus of course there's the small matter of a 4,500 majority and a national swing from Lib Dem to Labour to overcome.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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