Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
St Helens South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Gerard E. Bermingham
Conservative Party:
Lee Rotherham
Liberal Democratic Party:
Brian T. Spencer

Incumbent:
Gerald Bermingham

97 Result:
Gerry Bermingham
30,36768.6%
Mary Russell
6,62815.0%
Brian Spencer
5,91913.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
44,25866.53%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
30,57261.0%
12,26324.5%
6,96113.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,10073.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.4%
16-2414.1%
25-3920.7%
40-6527.7%
65 <17.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.1%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time62.9%
Part Time15.0%
Self Employed6.6%
Government Schemes2.8%
Unemployed12.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.1%
II - Managerial/Technical23.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)35.3%
IV - Partly Skilled15.8%
V - Unskilled5.8%

Misc:
Own Residence67.7%
Rent Residence31.3%
Own Car(s)60.9%
Submissions
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24/04/01 JR Email:
St Helens is very similar to its neighbour (and rival on the Rugby pitch) Wigan. The LibDems have had some success in local council elections but never shown any signs of repeating this success in a parliamentary election. This working-class former coal-and-glass town will stay Labour.
13/05/01 Harry Hayfield Email:harry@hhayfield.fsnet.co.uk
Labour hold, but expect a huge swing to the Lib Dems following the nomination of Shaun Woodward, the former Conservative MP for Witney
18/05/01 David McKee Email:david@mckee.ndo.co.uk
Golly. Things get more interesting by the day, in what was something of a political backwater. It now looks as though there will be an independent Labour candidate. Can't say I'm surprised. Woodward's parachute jump was amazingly clumsy even by post-Mandelson Millbank standards. If the locals are revolting, then this is seriously bad news for Labour. It means that the contest is wide open - it's no longer a Woodward shoo-in. From the media's point of view, this will fulfil the role of Tatton four years ago - it provides a little colour in an otherwise lifeless and one-sided contest. The difference is that the voters will be continually reminded of Labour arrogance throughout the election. Four years ago, it was all about Tory sleaze. All we need is some joker to come along in a white suit, and we will be well away. At this stage, it's wide open - absolutely anybody could win.

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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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