Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
East Worthing and Shoreham

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Daniel J. Yates
Conservative Party:
Timothy P. Loughton
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paul Elgood
UK Independence Party:
James McCulloch

Incumbent:
Tim Loughton

97 Result:
Mark Williams
12,33523.9%
Tim Loughton
20,86440.5%
Martin King
15,76630.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,56972.87%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,47613.3%
28,82451.4%
18,91933.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,12878.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.1%
16-2411.0%
25-3918.8%
40-6526.7%
65 <25.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.6%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time61.6%
Part Time17.2%
Self Employed13.6%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed6.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.9%
II - Managerial/Technical32.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.5%
IV - Partly Skilled12.5%
V - Unskilled4.6%

Misc:
Own Residence81.1%
Rent Residence17.9%
Own Car(s)70.2%
Submissions
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02/05/01 m b Email:
If half the Labour vote goes Lib-Dem, then it is a neck and neck fight between the Lib-Dems and Conservatives. Good local council presence over the last few years helped halve Tory malority last time. This time I back the Lib-Dems to snatch it!
11/05/01 csm Email:
It looks as if the Lib Dems could do it. They have built on their strong local govt. base by selecting high profile Paul Elgood as their candidate. Mr Elgood is regularly featured in the Argus and is an energetic campaigner who gets lots of coverage, the Labour activists appear to have decamped into neighbouring Hove. This leaves the Lib Dems to mop up the anti-Tory vote.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
And another corrective to Lib Dem overexuberance--though it *is* the Lib Dems' best chance in West Sussex and, to be honest, there's something king of nice about LD having a West Sussex seat for a change. But how willing are Blair-besotted Labour voters to step centreward?

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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