Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Eastleigh

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Samuel Jaffa
Conservative Party:
Conor Burns
Liberal Democratic Party:
David W.G. Chidgey
Green Party:
Martha Lyn
UK Independence Party:
Stephen Challis

Incumbent:
David Chidgey

97 Result:
Alan Lloyd
14,88326.8%
Stephen Reid
18,69933.7%
David Chidgey
19,45335.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,49476.91%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
10,94719.5%
28,62050.9%
16,70829.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,27583.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.2%
16-2412.0%
25-3924.9%
40-6526.3%
65 <15.6%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.8%
Other non-white0.6%

Employment:
Full Time66.0%
Part Time16.6%
Self Employed11.1%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed5.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.8%
II - Managerial/Technical31.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.5%
IV - Partly Skilled11.9%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence79.1%
Rent Residence20.0%
Own Car(s)81.0%
Submissions
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20/04/01 NG Email:
David Chidgeys chances of holding Eastleigh do not look good on paper but in fact, he stands a very good chance of hanging on. With a large Labour vote to squeeze (the 1997 vote was largely influenced by the 1994 by-election in which the Tories crashed to third place), almost two full terms as MP and continuing strength at local level for the Lib Dems (even in 2000, the Lib Dems were over 10% ahead of the Tories. In the Euros, the Tory lead compared with other seats was pretty unconvincing), David Chidgey is well placed to keep Eastleigh yellow this time.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
It might have been a typical suburban-Hants Tory hold, but Stephen Milligan's seamy death led to an electoral puzzlement. Like David Rendel, Chidgeys made good of a midterm LD byelection gain--but barely, and through a lucky split in what became a technical 3-way marginal. A fundamentally middle-class Southampton suburb with an industrial edge, Eastleigh resembles those seats in the north like Broxtowe which made 1997's difference between a Labour victory and a Labour landslide--but this is the still ordinarily Tory-beholden south. Chidgey's big advantage: just "being there".

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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