Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Mid Sussex

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul Mitchell
Conservative Party:
Hon. A. Nicholas W. Soames
Liberal Democratic Party:
Lesley Wilkins
UK Independence Party:
Petrina Holdsworth

Incumbent:
Hon Nicholas Soames

97 Result:
Mervyn Hamilton
9,96918.6%
Nicholas Soames
23,23143.5%
Margaret Collins
16,37730.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,46377.73%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,03410.6%
33,41558.9%
16,00828.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,72880.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.9%
16-2412.6%
25-3921.6%
40-6528.2%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.5%
Other non-white0.8%

Employment:
Full Time66.4%
Part Time16.6%
Self Employed11.7%
Government Schemes0.5%
Unemployed4.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.5%
II - Managerial/Technical43.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.8%
IV - Partly Skilled8.5%
V - Unskilled3.1%

Misc:
Own Residence80.0%
Rent Residence18.1%
Own Car(s)80.7%
Submissions
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17/05/01 J Smith Email:
The Conservatives have enough support to hold this seat. The Liberal Democrats would have to take a large chunk of Labour's vote from the 1997 election to win this seat. Conservatives to hold in Mid Sussex
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Kin of Churchill, friend of Prince Charles, Nick Soames is the ultimate Tory with a pedigree--and yet he was held to the low 40s in '97, unlike the typical SurrySussexWealden high 40s/low 50s, attributable perhaps to the commuter-town influence of Burgess Hill/Haywards Heath. But defeat's a bit much to anticipate; even if the Lib Dems looks lustily at any seat they scored over 30% in (such as this one), an actual *victory* here might suggest they're clipping the Tories as the second party in the House of Commons...

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Last Updated 29 May 2001
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