Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Reigate

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Simon Charleton
Conservative Party:
Crispin J.R. Blunt
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jane Kulka
UK Independence Party:
Stephen P. Smith

Incumbent:
Crispin Blunt

97 Result:
Andrew Howard
13,38227.8%
Crispin Blunt
21,12343.8%
Peter Samuel
9,61520.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,17474.40%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
8,87017.5%
29,14857.5%
12,20824.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,66778.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.4%
16-2411.6%
25-3921.3%
40-6528.1%
65 <20.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.2%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani1.2%
Other non-white1.2%

Employment:
Full Time65.7%
Part Time14.7%
Self Employed13.4%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed5.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.6%
II - Managerial/Technical44.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)17.6%
IV - Partly Skilled7.5%
V - Unskilled3.2%

Misc:
Own Residence76.3%
Rent Residence21.7%
Own Car(s)80.9%
Submissions
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14/05/01 LB Email:
If Reigate was ever going to defect from the Conservatives, it would have happened in 1997. The sitting Tory MP George Gardiner had been deselected and left the party for the anti-EU Referendum Party, in whose cause he stood in Reigate in 1997 and won 7% of the vote. More of this vote than usual can be expected to go Tory in 2001. Despite Gardiner's defection the new candidate Crispin Blunt won comfortably. Although there are some Labour areas of Reigate it would take a massive swing to unseat Blunt now.
15/05/01 NG Email:
The Tories will probably hold on here, if only because the opposition is pretty divided (the Lib Dems and Labour swopped 2nd and 3rd place in 1997) and neither challenger is in a very strong position.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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