Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Sevenoaks

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Caroline Humphreys
Conservative Party:
Michael C. Fallon
Liberal Democratic Party:
Clive J. Gray
UK Independence Party:
Lisa Hawkins

Incumbent:
Michael Fallon

97 Result:
John Hayes
12,31524.6%
Michael Fallon
22,77645.4%
Roger Walshe
12,08624.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,14975.44%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
8,62616.1%
30,84757.6%
13,16024.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,52080.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.2%
16-2411.9%
25-3920.2%
40-6529.9%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.7%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time63.0%
Part Time15.6%
Self Employed14.6%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.7%
II - Managerial/Technical40.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)20.9%
IV - Partly Skilled8.8%
V - Unskilled3.3%

Misc:
Own Residence76.2%
Rent Residence21.4%
Own Car(s)82.3%
Submissions
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14/05/01 LB Email:
Sevenoaks is a commuter seat in Kent, on the border with Surrey. Labour were negligible here for many years but New Labour has made some impact. It is nowhere near enough to threaten Tory MP Michael Fallon, and neither are the Liberal Democrats who split the anti-Tory vote nearly evenly in 1997. No matter how badly the Tories do in the 2001 election, I can't see any seats which turned in a 10,000+ majority in 1997 falling.
15/05/01 NG Email:
Sevenoaks should have been one of those seats where the Lib Dems put up some kind of challenge to the Tories in 1997. Instead the LD vote stagnated while the Labour vote soared to take second place. Even combined, the two votes would only just deprive the Tories of the seat, so there seems little reason to presume that, given the divided opposition, Sevenoaks will be other than Tory next time.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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