Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Southampton, Test

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Alan P.V. Whitehead
Conservative Party:
Richard Gueterbock
Liberal Democratic Party:
John Shaw
UK Independence Party:
Peter A. Day
Socialist Alliance:
Mark Abel

Incumbent:
Dr Alan Whitehead

97 Result:
Alan Whitehead
28,39654.1%
James Hill
14,71228.1%
Alan Dowden
7,17113.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,44171.85%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
24,56545.5%
21,84340.4%
7,08713.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,03275.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.5%
16-2414.6%
25-3923.3%
40-6523.7%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White94.5%
Black0.9%
Indian/Pakistani3.1%
Other non-white1.5%

Employment:
Full Time63.2%
Part Time15.1%
Self Employed9.0%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed11.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.2%
II - Managerial/Technical25.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.1%
IV - Partly Skilled17.6%
V - Unskilled6.7%

Misc:
Own Residence59.6%
Rent Residence39.3%
Own Car(s)63.9%
Submissions
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05/05/01 LB Email:
This seat has a reputation as being won by the party that wins nationally. It isn't quite true (Labour won in 1951 and the the Tories won in 1964 and February 1974, and Labour would have won on the current boundaries in 1992). To win Test the Tories would need to overhaul a 2:1 majority and need a 14% swing which would translate into a national lead of 16% and a massive landslide. Although Labour haven't done very well in local elections the Lib Dems have picked up the slack. Southampton is a very average city demographically and politically and this is why Labour should win comfortably although maybe with a smaller majority than 1997.

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Last Updated 7 May 2001
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