Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Bath

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Marilyn Hawkings
Conservative Party:
Ashley Fox
Liberal Democratic Party:
Donald M.E. Foster
Green Party:
Michael Boulton
UK Independence Party:
Andrew Tettenborn

Incumbent:
Don Foster

97 Result:
Tim Bush
8,82816.4%
Alison McNair
16,85031.2%
Don Foster
26,16948.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,98976.24%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
4,7618.2%
25,28943.4%
27,29846.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,22282.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1616.6%
16-2413.1%
25-3920.5%
40-6526.1%
65 <23.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.6%
Black1.0%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time59.9%
Part Time17.3%
Self Employed13.2%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed8.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.8%
II - Managerial/Technical35.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.1%
IV - Partly Skilled11.0%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Misc:
Own Residence65.8%
Rent Residence32.7%
Own Car(s)65.6%
Submissions
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19/04/01 NG Email:
With a hefty 9,000 majority, a strong local record, a high party profile and a long tenure, Don Foster will almost certainly hold Bath, one of the party's high-profile gains in 1992.
31/05/01 GS Email:
Bath will be a LibDem hold but possibly with a reduced majority. The Conservatives (and Labour to some extent) are a challenge.
03/06/01 PSR Email:
I think JR has mistakenly given a prediction for Torbay instead of Bath. With a near 10,000 majority and a high media profile (for a Lib Dem) Don Foster will have no problems.
03/06/01 BF Email:
JL's remarks about firearms suggest s/he has Torbay not Bath in mind! This should be a safe hold for Don Foster and the Lib Dems, even without the widely-predicted Tory meltdown. Foster is an effective performer who should retain tactical Labour votes in what is a more mixed city than the postcards portray.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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