Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Devizes

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Aubrey E. Ross
Conservative Party:
Rt. Hon. Michael A.F.J.K. Ancram
Liberal Democratic Party:
Helen Frances
UK Independence Party:
Alan Wood
Monster Raving Loony Party:
Long Tall Sally'

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Michael Ancram QC

97 Result:
Frank Jeffrey
14,55124.2%
Michael Ancram
25,71042.8%
Tony Vicers
15,92826.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,03674.69%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,61312.0%
33,60353.0%
20,58432.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
63,44084.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.5%
16-2412.9%
25-3922.0%
40-6526.4%
65 <18.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.0%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time63.4%
Part Time16.0%
Self Employed13.9%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed5.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.9%
II - Managerial/Technical30.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.8%
IV - Partly Skilled14.6%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Misc:
Own Residence63.8%
Rent Residence28.1%
Own Car(s)79.0%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
Michael Ancram should be reasonably safe here in Devizes. Based on the 1992 result, the Lib Dems posed quite a strong threat here but instead of coming close to unseating Ancram in 97, their vote fell and they were left just a couple of points ahead of Labour. Unless there is a big tactical switch from Labour to the Lib Dems, Ancram should hang on here.
31/05/01 EJS Email:
I think that any lingering hopes that the Liberal Democrats had of capturing Devizes disappeared when Ludovic Kennedy decided to stand as an Independent. He is quite a high profile former Liberal Democrat standing on the single issue of euthanasia. He will probably take a significant handful of votes from his former party.

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Last Updated 31 May 2001
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