Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Falmouth and Camborne

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Candice K. Atherton
Conservative Party:
Nick Serpell
Liberal Democratic Party:
Julian C.M. Brazil
UK Independence Party:
John Browne
Mebyon Kernow:
Hilda Wasley
Monster Raving Loony Party:
Freddy Zapp

Incumbent:
Ms Candy Atherton

97 Result:
Candy Atherton
18,15133.8%
Sebastian Coe
15,46328.8%
Terrye Jones
13,51225.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,63275.13%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
16,73229.2%
21,15036.9%
17,88331.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,34480.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2411.3%
25-3919.3%
40-6527.8%
65 <22.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time52.9%
Part Time16.8%
Self Employed16.0%
Government Schemes2.4%
Unemployed11.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.1%
II - Managerial/Technical27.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.1%
IV - Partly Skilled14.0%
V - Unskilled5.7%

Misc:
Own Residence75.3%
Rent Residence23.4%
Own Car(s)71.8%
Submissions
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19/04/01 NG Email:\
Another of those complex three-way marginals with all three parties within 10 per cent of one another. The Tories will be hoping to build on their 1999 European election success to unseat Candy Atherton who does not start on particularly strong ground. The Lib Dems, despite their strength in the South West, may have peaked and will suffer from not having their well-known perennial candidate Terrye Jones this time round. But will enough disgruntled Labour votes go to the Lib Dems to ensure a shock win to complete their set of Cornwall seats or will the Tories' revival be strong enough to let them back in here ... a three-way contest with no clear winner.
14/05/01 Mike Snyder Email:
Mebyon Kernow will prevail in shock victory for resurgent Cornish national cause. (Actually not, but if it DOES happen, you heard it here first!)
30/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Tin mining may be gone from Redruth-Camborne, but it bequeathed the only real pocket of Cornish Labour strength (their seat before 1970), somewhat compressed over recent decades by deindustrialization and the lasting effect of the South West's C-L(D) electoral juggernaut. As a result, while Labour's fortunes have revived enough to take back the seat, they haven't revived enough to take this out of the very blurry 3-way-and-lessers category F&C has lately sunken into--even the great Olympian Sebastian Coe couldn't crest 40% for the slow-fade Tories in '92 (and he lost in '97, natch). Look for further blur, or even a rare Lib-Lab marginal situation that isn't Rochford, Oldham East, Chesterfield, Yardley, etc...

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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