Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Somerton and Frome

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Andrew Perkins
Conservative Party:
Jonathan Marland
Liberal Democratic Party:
David W.St.J. Heath
UK Independence Party:
Peter Bridgwood

Incumbent:
David Heath

97 Result:
Bob Ashford
9,38516.3%
Mark Robinson
22,55439.3%
David Heath
22,68439.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,40377.58%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,21710.4%
28,28747.4%
24,03640.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,67282.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.3%
16-2411.8%
25-3920.3%
40-6527.4%
65 <20.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.6%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time57.5%
Part Time16.1%
Self Employed18.6%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed6.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.7%
II - Managerial/Technical34.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.4%
IV - Partly Skilled13.2%
V - Unskilled3.9%

Misc:
Own Residence72.6%
Rent Residence23.8%
Own Car(s)82.3%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
David Heath will have a hard time hanging on to Somerton and Frome. He is defending a tiny majority and will not be buoyed up by the European election result. However, he is a reasonable Labour vote to squeeze and might just, if he can persuade enough Labour voters over to his side, have enough to scrape a hold. But it's going to be extremely tight.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Somerton and Frome is a top Conservative target according to the BBC. A minute swing to Conservative will topple the Liberals here. Look for a switch here.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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