Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Woodspring

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Chanel Stevens
Conservative Party:
Dr. Liam Fox
Liberal Democratic Party:
Colin Eldridge

Incumbent:
Dr Liam Fox

97 Result:
Deborah Sander
11,37720.7%
Liam Fox
24,42544.5%
Nan Kirsen
16,69130.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,92778.51%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
6,86312.4%
29,52953.3%
17,52331.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,36080.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2411.5%
25-3919.5%
40-6530.5%
65 <18.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time63.2%
Part Time18.1%
Self Employed12.9%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed5.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.0%
II - Managerial/Technical42.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)20.2%
IV - Partly Skilled8.5%
V - Unskilled2.5%

Misc:
Own Residence83.8%
Rent Residence14.8%
Own Car(s)83.6%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
Liam Fox survived what should have been a rather credible challenge from the Lib Dems at the last general election, largely because of a big increase in the Labour vote. Even a big tactical switch from Labour to the Lib Dems this time should not unseat him.
13/05/01 Chanel Stevens Email:Chanel@cmbstevens.fsnet.co.uk
A recent NOP opinion Poll puts Fox on 43% Labour on 29% and L/D's trailing in third on 16%. It also puts support for Fox's Health Plans at only 25% of the Don't Knows which number more than one in three. If they vote according to their Health Preference then Labour would win
Source: Mercury Local Paper LAst Thursday "Lib Dems trailing in third"
01/06/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
In many of the seats the LibDems won in 1997 they were third-placed at the start of the campaign. So an opinion poll placing them third is not, on its own, evidence that they will do badly on the day. It's only once the campaign proper starts that the realization that the LibDems are the main challengers comes into play. So Labour are unlikely to even come second here, much less actually *win*. The smart money is still on the Conservative holding on, but a LibDem surge is within the realms of possibility.

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Last Updated 1 June 2001
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