Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Cardiff North

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Julie Morgan
Conservative Party:
Alistair Watson
Liberal Democratic Party:
A. John Dixon
Plaid Cymru:
Sion Jobbins
UK Independence Party:
Donald Hulston

Incumbent:
Ms Julie Morgan

97 Result:
Julie Morgan
24,46050.4%
Gwilym Jones
16,33433.7%
Robyn Rowland
5,29410.9%
Colin Palfrey
12012.48%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,48880.24%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,57838.9%
21,54745.1%
6,48713.6%
9161.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,73583.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2410.5%
25-3921.3%
40-6526.0%
65 <23.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.5%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani0.9%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time65.5%
Part Time16.8%
Self Employed10.1%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed6.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.8%
II - Managerial/Technical37.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.1%
IV - Partly Skilled7.9%
V - Unskilled2.7%

Misc:
Own Residence83.2%
Rent Residence15.8%
Own Car(s)73.2%
Submissions
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27/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
In 1999 this seat graphically illustrated Labour's contrasting fortunes among different sections of the Welsh electorate. When formerly iron-clad strongholds like the Rhondda were lost in the assembly election this middle class seat was comfortably held, and the Tory vote share dropped even further. Labour might have to work hard to get some of its heartland voters to the polls, but the aspirational swing voters seem impressed by New Labour's combination of fiscal responsibility and social progress. That should be enough to win it for Julie Morgan, even though the only time she has made an impact in the Commons was when campaigning for women MPs to be allowed to breastfeed in parliamentary Committees! Morgan might also benefit from the popularity of her husband Rhodri, the First Minister of Wales who represents neighbouring Cardiff West.

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Last Updated 29 April 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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