Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Cardiff South and Penarth

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Alun E. Michael
Conservative Party:
Maureen Kelly-Owen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Rodney S. Berman
Plaid Cymru:
Lila Haines
Socialist Alliance:
David Bartlett

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Alun Michael

97 Result:
Alun Michael
22,64753.4%
Caroline Roberts
8,76620.7%
John Dixon
3,9649.3%
David Hasswell
13563.20%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,40068.57%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,38355.5%
15,95833.6%
3,7077.8%
7761.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,50076.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1623.0%
16-2412.1%
25-3922.6%
40-6523.2%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White93.6%
Black2.9%
Indian/Pakistani1.8%
Other non-white1.7%

Employment:
Full Time60.3%
Part Time16.4%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed13.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.8%
II - Managerial/Technical24.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.2%
IV - Partly Skilled14.6%
V - Unskilled5.1%

Misc:
Own Residence64.2%
Rent Residence34.8%
Own Car(s)56.2%
Submissions
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24/04/01 JR Email:
This is a solid Labour seat (though the majority was trimmed last time by a bogus 'New Labour' candidate who managed to confuse almost 4000 voters). It was held for more than forty years by former Prime Minister Jim Callaghan. Alun Michael was shoehorned into a job he didn't want as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister and when he was removed by a no-confidence vote in the Assembly he resigned his Assembly seat straightaway. Michael was a quietly effective Minister, and after his unpleasant experience in the assembly I hope he gets a well-deserved Cabinet position after the election.

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Last Updated 24 April 2001
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