Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Cynon Valley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Ann Clwyd
Conservative Party:
Julian Waters
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ian Parry
Plaid Cymru:

Incumbent:
Ann Clwyd

97 Result:
Ann Clwyd
23,30769.7%
Andrew Smith
2,2626.8%
Huw Price
3,45910.3%
Alun Davies
355210.63%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
33,42469.22%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,25469.1%
4,89012.9%
2,6677.0%
4,18611.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,99776.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.1%
16-2412.8%
25-3919.9%
40-6526.4%
65 <19.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time60.2%
Part Time13.7%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes2.7%
Unemployed14.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional2.7%
II - Managerial/Technical21.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)32.9%
IV - Partly Skilled18.5%
V - Unskilled5.7%

Misc:
Own Residence72.8%
Rent Residence26.3%
Own Car(s)57.3%
Submissions
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? Daily Telegraph Robert Waller
Labour held on to Cynon Valley (which includes Aberdare and Mountain Ash) by less than 1,000 votes in the May 1999 Welsh Assembly elections. This may well be a high-water mark for Plaid Cymru in a set of elections whose circumstances favoured them - a Welsh focus; an apparent attempt by Labour's HQ in England to foist a leader on the Welsh party; a midterm date; and a low turnout. As with other valley seats producing deviant results (from the mainstream of South Welsh history, anyway) a return to the norm is likely in 2001.

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Last Updated 12 May 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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