Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Neath

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Peter G. Hain
Conservative Party:
David Devine
Liberal Democratic Party:
Plaid Cymru:
Alun Llywelyn

Incumbent:
Peter Hain

97 Result:
Peter Hain
30,32473.5%
David Evans
3,5838.7%
Frank Little
2,5976.3%
Trefor Jones
33448.11%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,24374.28%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
30,90368.0%
6,92815.2%
2,4675.4%
5,14511.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
45,44379.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.1%
16-2411.7%
25-3920.0%
40-6527.2%
65 <21.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time63.3%
Part Time14.9%
Self Employed9.3%
Government Schemes2.3%
Unemployed10.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.2%
II - Managerial/Technical24.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)32.8%
IV - Partly Skilled20.5%
V - Unskilled5.6%

Misc:
Own Residence73.2%
Rent Residence25.9%
Own Car(s)65.2%
Submissions
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08/05/01 JR Email:
As safe a Labour seat as they come. Peter Hain, who has held the seat since a 1991 byelection, will be one to watch in the next parliament. A former president of the Young Liberals in the 1960s, and anti-apartheid campaigner (he was born in South Africa), Hain is now on the 'inside left' of the Labour party. He's one of the few Ministers who is licensed to 'think out loud' and make occasionally critical or cautionary comments. He's currently a Minister of State but I think he'll probably get Cabinet status after the election.
17/05/01 gw Email:
My own home town constituency will vote labour in the election but with a majority down around 3000 due to a shift to Plaid. Look for the Conservatives to just regain their deposit in a seat where memorably Captain Beaney of the Baked Bean party once pushed them close in.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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