Beaches-East York

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Beaches-East York

Last Update:
9:50 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Monica Purdy

Progressive Conservative:
Angela Kennedy

New Democratic Party:
Michael Prue

Green Party:
Tom Mason

Incumbent:

Michael Prue

Federal MP:

Hon. Maria Minna

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 6927

*FRANCES LANKIN

19703 45.93%

JUDY BURNS

12776 29.78%

BILL BUCKINGHAM

9332 21.75%

MICHAEL SCHULMAN

431 1%

DAN LARGY

264 0.62%

DONALDA FREDEEN

230 0.54%

2001 By-election:

Plurality 3735

Michael Prue

14024 49.66%

Bob Hunter

10289 3644%

Mac Penney

2821 9.99%

Peter Elgie

694 0.73%

Ray Scott

206 0.33%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 13 579

Maria Minna

22 515 52.7%

Mel Watkins

8 936 20.9%

Wayne Clutterbuck

5 766 13.5%

Abu Alam

3 838 9%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 112961

1996 108997

1991 104346

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 24780

20-39 38850

40-59 27370

60+ 17990

Avg Household Income
$57410

Labour Participation 66.50%

Unemployment 10.10%

Canadian Citizen
87.29%

Canadian Born 63.94%

Ontario Born 54.52%

Immigrant 34.81%

Visible Minority 27.29%

Aboriginal 0.81%

First Language

English 75295

French 1605

Chinese 7845

Greek 2270

Italian 2210

Residence

House 50.74%

Apartment 48.85%

Owned 50.56%

Rented 49.44%

Avg Dwelling Value $202175

Education

University 28425

College/Trade School 21385

Secondary 29920

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	30/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I bet this riding will have the largest plurality in the province. NDP 75%, Liberal 10%, PC 10%, Green 5%. Prue is running around canvasing all the houses, his office is always packed with volenteers. When I walk past the Kennedy office at 6:00pm it is empty. It looks like she has given up. I don't even know where the Liberal office is. Purdy has a few signs but really isn't putting up much of a fight. The hard core PC voters probably make up about 10% of the voters as shown in the last by-election. Hard core Liberals are a little bit harder to estimate. In this riding the protest vote will go to the Green Party. They may even have a chance of coming in second to the NDP.
	25/09/03	Jim Mars Email:
More than in any provincial or federal election in this district, or its predecessors, the sign battle favors Michael Prue (NDP) by an amazing plurality. It is possible to go all over the riding and not know who the Liberal candidate is, the PC candidate only appears once in a while. While the NDP is always good at this ground-level advertising method, this year the predominance is HUGE!
	24/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Who the hell is 'two slaps'? He's the one who's smoking crack. Angela (no relation to me thank you) has admitted she can't win and that's why she's running for her seat on the board again! On top of that, her name recognition is nowhere in the vicinity of Michael Prue's. Prue=47% Purdy=28% Kennedy=23% Green Candidate=2%
	22/09/03	two slaps Email:
Somebody's smoking crack, if the conservatives don't win they will come in second place. The NDP should be thankful they even get a seat here. Frances was well known so is Angela, this will be a close race. the conservatives came in second last time, i think they will win by a nose this time.
	15/09/03	East Yorker Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I predict an NDP win in this riding with at least 60% of the vote. Michael Prue is the incumbent. He lives in the riding and is a very well respected former mayor of East York. He has a lot of workers and lots of signs. The former MPP was also NDP and very popular with constituents. The PC's have very little support in this riding. Most residents are still angry about the forced amalgamation of Toronto. The PC candiate, Angela Kennedy, made a big deal about being from the riding, however she now lives in North York. This revelation didn't go over well. The Liberal candiate, Monica Purdy, has very few signs up and is largely unknow. The Green party will probably make a respectable showing with about 5 to 10% of the vote. They may even beat the PC's for third place in this riding.
	13/09/03	Email:
This ones a no brainer. In my neighbourhood in old East York there are 20 or 30 Prue signs to every Purdy sign. I think both Liberals and Tory activists are wisely spending their efforts in other ridings.
	07/09/03	A Email:
Driving through the riding it's clear the Michael Prue campaign has hit the ground running. Prue has an early and clear dominance in the sign wars outdistancing the Liberals by miles. It looks like Prue will survive even if the NDP vote completely collapses provincially.
	04/09/03	Cocoa Email: cocoa@canada.com
Michael's experience as mayor of East York and his high profile make this riding a sure bet, even in a red tide. He was a great mayor and a pretty good councillor and that's where my support comes. He shows up at everything from major yard sales to music festivals in the riding -- without an entourage. He is palatable to swing voters and disgruntled Tories (an emerging breed in this election). He'll be in this time.
	04/09/03	Craig Email:
Prue will hold this one in a romp. He won a by-election and became the first new NDP member since the Bob Rae era, and this is one of the most left-wing areas in Ontario. The margin should also be increased, as the Liberals lack the star candidate (who still lost) in the 2001 by-election and the Tories are hardly on the radar screen, probably ending up below deposit level. Even if the NDP was at 7% province-wide this would be theirs. Current prediction: Prue 56%, Purdy 31%, Kennedy 10%, Mason 2%, others 1%.
	04/09/03	Email:
Colour this one NDP. The NDP has held it since 1975 and held it on and off prior to 1975. The Tories held the riding briefly 1971-1975. If the Liberals couldn't take this one in a by-election with a so-called "star" candidate...forget it. The province-wide numbers are irrelevant. The NDP vote is concentrated in certain ridings...and this is one of them. Basically the NDP will run their campaign as a series of about 20-25 by-elections...concentrating all of their resources in "winnable" ridings.
	08/07/03	Addielefty Email:
If anyone thinks that the Grits will win this riding you must be on some kind of drug cause your pretty darn carzy!!!!! now this isn't just the NewDem in me talking, look at the past. Frances Lankin had been the MPP for years and is loved as far as i know by the people in the Beaches. In 1990 even the East York part of the riding (considered to be the least NDP friendly area) went NDP. Now look who the NDP MPP is!! the former mayor of East York and Toronto city councillor, He got more votes in the byelection, almost 50%, thats more than Frances got in the last election. Without a "So called" Star candidate running the NDP should get well over 50% this election. Oh not to mention the NDP's Sandra Busson is the city councillor for the beaches area and carolyn davis only lost by a sliver in the last municipal byelection in the East york Area. Needless to say no matter what the NDP gets in popular support (i have seen it anywhere from 13-18%) they will hold on tt Beaches-East York!!!!
	30/05/03	Crash Email:
Time to update the information on this riding. The NDP are now sitting at 11 per cent. I think the NDP could go even lower the way things are going. This give Purdy good chance to beat Prue.
	20/05/03	JS Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
Sorry to upset "reality check" but the NDP are on 18% at the moment. Also the Grit's have already "boomed" here in the bye election. They did not win that, and because parties on the verge of a landslide always do better in bye elections than the "real thing"(though they do always do well then)... think Labour in the mid nineties. NDP hold.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
This one seems to be solid NDP territory. If the Liberals have a good candidate then they will possibly make some inroads but truth be told I don't think they really have that much of a chance here.
	15/05/03	A Beacher Email:
I really have to question "CUPE Liberal." Monica Purdy's campaign? She and her campaign have been non-existant, which should come as no surprise considering she doesn't have a snowball's chance. Michael Prue's campaign office has been open for months now, and everytime I go by, there is always a bustle of activity. Prue has slipped nicely into the role of MPP, delivering the high level of service Beachers have come to expect from their elected members. Prue will get over 50% this time, and the Liberals will place third, like they did in 1999.
	01/05/03	CUPE Liberal Email:
My union brothers and sisters working on Monica Purdy campaign tell me that they are picking up a great amount of support for her. The Liberal party is ready to take power in Ontario and voters in Beaches-East York want their MPP to be a government member for a change. There's still a lot of hard feelings about the dirty campaign Prue and the NDP ran against Canadian hero Bob Hunter in 2001. I still can't believe because Bob wrote an award winning piece of fiction that Churley said "he is not fit for public office" when she was on television. Shame.
	19/04/03	ARL Email:
"Reality Check" seems completely ignorant of the fact that the NDP got 12% in the last election yet still won Beaches-East York. Why he expects them to lose at 11% (assuming that figure doesn't grow during the election campaign) is a mystery.
	17/04/03	Reality Check Email:
The NDP are now running at 11 per cent in the polls. That makes the New Democrats a fringe party. Time for a reality check in the Beachers. The Liberals now have FIVE TIMES the support that the last place NDP have. Michael Prue is going to lose this seat because his party doesn't have any support left. Time for the NDP to face it. You won't even have official party status in the Ontario legislature after the election. Oh well, Prue can run for his old seat on Toronto city council.
	25/03/03	ARL Email:
Liberal Bob Hunter promised he'd win the riding "next time" but he's not even bothering running. Perhaps he's been told that the Grits are putting their resources into winning marginal Tory ridings.?
	20/03/03	Not Non Partisan Email:
Michael Prue has a cakewalk in a riding that requires local credentials. Liberals last won here in -- oh yeah, I remember - never! Tories should run Tom Jakobek, who would have a chance.
	30/01/03	AL Email:
This a definate NDP hold. B-E-Y has a large Hellenistic community with strong NDP links! Easy TO hold for the NDP! Possibly the only NDp riding to survive the Liberal tidal Wave of support in TO>
	27/10/02	IanB Email:
The NDP will hold onto this seat. It has elected New Democrats provincially forever, from Marion Bryden to Frances Lankin, and federally it was also an NDP lock until the 1993 Liberal landslide. Prue is also very well known in the riding (having been involved municipally for years) and outside (he's one of the NDP's best MPPs).
	19/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Believe it or not, Michael Prue's the only sitting NDPer who hasn't been continuously in office since the 1990 Rae landslide. But he fits the turf like a glove--his win was a NDP relief after several byelections of Green-level purgatory or worse, and don't be surprised if he does what Frances Lankin couldn't do: succeed to the provincial party leadership. The provincial-campaign-fueled Tories are likely to improve on their byelection result and, Bob Hunter or no Bob Hunter, the Grits are likely to lose ground. (An interesting result of Hunter's candidacy, though, was an inversion of voting patterns; this time, it was hitherto "conservative" East York that went heavily for favorite-son NDPer Prue, while the yuppie and media-savvy Beaches--where the Grits polled below deposit level in '99--favoured Hunter...)

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