Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Brant

Last Update:
1:58 PM 25/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
19 November 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Dave Levac
Progressive Conservative:
Alayne Sokoloski
New Democratic Party:
David Noonan
Green Party:

Incumbent:
David Levac

Federal MP:
Hon. Jane Stewart

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality956

DAVE LEVAC
21166 46.98%

ALAYNE SOKOLOSKI
20210 44.86%

DAVID SHARPE
2889 6.41%

GRAHAM MCRAE
495 1.1%

ELEANOR T. HYODO
294 0.65%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 113
Jane Stewart
24 068 56.4%
Chris Cattle
10 955 25.7%
Stephen Kun
3 580 8.4%
Dee Chisholm
3 126 7.3%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001109016
1996105679
1991101730

(1996 census)

Age
0-1930090
20-3930245
40-5925970
60+19380

Avg Household Income

$53546
Labour Participation65.00%
Unemployment8.40%

Canadian Citizen

96.99%
Canadian Born85.36%
Ontario Born78.10%
Immigrant14.43%
Visible Minority4.11%
Aboriginal2.15%

First Language
English91290
French1035
Polish2005

Residence
House79.07%
Apartment20.75%
Owned68.40%
Rented31.60%
Avg Dwelling Value$137564

Education
University11995
College/Trade School24805
Secondary36195



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
25/09/03 not a public servant
Email:
Re: PAO's last post. My spies in the court house tell me that Sokoloski made the comment she did because a judge's wife who is employed in the Catholic school system put a Liberal lawn sign on the front lawn. The crime issue is a non-issue in this riding and no one could care less what Sokoloski thinks about provincial judge's sentencing practises. The real kicker is that the Catholic school teachers are whipped up in this riding because of the "personal attack" on the judge who is married to one of their own. This means more Liberal lawn signs, more Liberal door to door canvassers and more Liberal voters.
23/09/03 PAO
Email:
Sokoloski quoted in the paper today as highly critical of local judges and accused them of being open liberal supporters. She has been going negative the last few days and sources tell me she is getting more desperate. This is not going to fly in Brant County. She will lose by more than 900 votes this time.
17/09/03 BJC
Email:
The signage indicates Libs. and PCs are neck and neck with the NDP not a player in this riding. When you factor in the recent provincial polls and the fact that this is a Liberal riding at dissolution (by 900 votes) - Dave Levac will be the winner and Alayne Sokoloski will be 0 in 2 attempts.
09/09/03 M.S.
Email:
Ernie Eves strolled into town today. Rumors were rampant here yesterday that he had tried to book two different schools for a morning event, but they wouldn't let him in, so he had to stage a mini-rally at his hotel. And by mini, I mean 40 people according to the Canadian Press wire story after the event. 40 people in a riding they hope to win. Yikes. All this and the Liberals upstaged them by holding their own event in Eves' hotel earlier in the morning! Dave Levac is looking more and more solid every day.
03/09/03 Greg
Email:
I think the NDP has a good chance in winning Brant Riding. Here are my reasons: 1) The NDP has a strong history in this riding. The NDP MP Derek Blackburn held this riding for 22 years and NDP MPPs held the riding from 1967-1971, 1975-79, and 1990-95. 2) There is a large amount of poverty in this riding. Many residents who live in this riding rent their homes, make a little more than minimum wage, and depend on a social welfare state. The NDPís message will appeal to these voters. 3) The NDP is on an upswing throughout the province. You could expect to see Dave Levac and Alayne Sokoloski spend most of their attacks on each other while David Noonan squeaks through the middle. Predicted results: NDP 34% Lib 33% PC 31% Other 1%
03/09/03 V.R.
Email: tvryder@sympatico.ca
Only a Tory would argue that exposing the mismanagement of our criminal justice system (mismanagement that allowed a violent offender out on the streets seven years before he should) would hurt someone's chances of re-election. Media attention, and even the odd stunt, has to be used when fighting the use of taxpayer funded ad campaigns such as the conservatives have been running for many years. If this kind of media hurts people, why do NDP Peter Kormos and LIB Dominic Agostino (kings of stunts) get elected time and time again? In this context, and combined with his solid riding and QP work, Levac is a lock on re-election. The only question remaining is whether PC Alayne Sokoloski will take a third kick at the can or whether the Brant Tories will try to groom a new horse to run.
13/08/03 BT
Email: teachb62@hotmail.com
Although PC Sokolowski has been active in the riding she has not capitalized on the open office and the early nomination meeting that she was granted by the PCs. LIB Levac is viewed as being a hard worker who genuinely tries to represent everyone in the riding. The Toronto Jail thing is a non starter since most people believe he did the right thing in exposing the jail situation (violent criminals getting out of jail early) and the local daily paper recently wrote an editorial which basically vindicated him of any wrong doing. Levac is safe.
08/08/03 Larry's Longshots
Email:
In every election there are always a couple of dark horse candidates who end up shocking the pundits and winning seats. Brant could be one of these ridings. With Dave Levac getting censured by the integrity commissioner for his little stunt at a Toronto jail, this riding is now in play. Remember, Levac only won by a little more than 800 votes over Alayne Sokoloski last time. Since 1999, Sokoloski has continued to campaign with the help of the premier and just about every member of the Tory cabinet coming to Brantford. Levac could be upset on election night.
01/08/03 Frozen Toast
Email:
The big news in Brantford is that Dave Levac was officially censured by the Ontario Integrity Commissioner in July. It seems that Levac lied to officials at a Toronto prison when he said a person coming along with him for a tour was his staff member when it was really a newspaper reporter. This says a lot about Levac's character and the people in Brantford are asking a lot of questions. Don't forget, Levac won this seat by less than 1000 votes last time and Alayne Sokolowski has been running her campaign in the riding for over 18 months now. Levac is in trouble and could very well lose his seat. I think this riding should be moved to the too close to call margin.
21/05/03 Grizz
Email:
The Liberals looks poised to take office as of now, so sitting liberals are very likely to keep their seats. Besides, Levac smiles nicely for the camera...
13/05/03 Jenny
Email: jennymacallister@yahoo.com
This is a prediction, not my pick to win, but I definately think Dave Levac will win. He clearly plays to the public, taking every chance for a photo op or to make a statement on anything and everything. He does whatever is publically applauded and takes no risks, therefore making him a perfect candidate for those voters who do not catch on.
26/03/03 THE GAMBLER
Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Dave Levac to win Brant. No upset in the making here. LIB Levac won by a nose here last time in a tight race to the finsh. He'll pull away this time and cruise to the winner's circle. You heard it here first.
18/03/03 Poll Junkie
Email:
This is gonna be an interesting race and I wouldn't count out the Tories in this riding. There is an NDP history in the area (Derek Blackburn federally in the 80s, Brad Ward provincially in the 90s) and if the provincal NDP campaign catches on, that could drain enough soft Liberal votes to let the Tories come up the middle.
25/01/03 M.S.
Email:
Dave Levac will hold onto this seat despite the effort the Tories will make to grab it. Yes, Sokoloski has been trying to elbow her way into the spotlight with her own office etc. But I think the only people impressed by that are already her supporters. And those on the fence might be a tad put off by her inability to get over her loss. And I'm sure a lot of people wish their husbands would finance an office for them as well in order to get their names in the newspaper. Having said that, Levac doesn't need negative opinion of Sokoloski to hold the seat. There is a strong Liberal team in this riding, and Levac has been very visible fighting for local health care and local jobs.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Here's a demonstration of how unnerving the PCs were to opponents in 1999. Both the urban and rural part of Brant elected PC MPPs in 1995; but both of them, under cloudy circumstances, chose not to run here again in '99. Thus, local PC organization appeared in disarray, and the Liberals' Dave Levac, capitalizing on anti-Tory resentment, looked a likely victor. Then--surprise!--come election day, Levac only squeaked through with a 2-point margin; if the once-formidable NDP machine hadn't been reduced to a deflated heap, the Tories, with a smidgen under 45% of the vote, would have been in again. Now Levac's got incumbents' advantage; trouble is, with exceptions like Pupatello and Smitherman, Grit critics haven't been sexy media fixations the way Tory kicking-posts have been. So it really comes down to local service. And Brantford's blue-collar Tories are shrinkier at Eves than Harris. Depends on who they run, I guess...
15/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email:
1) The margin here was tight, but there are few reasons to think Levac will be easily removed. Even the Conservatives admited as much in the June 26, 2002 Expositor: "The Tories know they will have a tough rematch with Levac's team because he is now an entrenched incumbent." 2) The Conservatives nominated Alayne Sokoloski, the same candidate nominated in 1999. She isn't bringing anything in 2003 she didn't have in 1999. 3) This is the homebase of the Nixon dynasty: former Premier, Harry; former Grit leader and Finance Minister, Bob; and senior Chretien Minister, Jane Stewart. Liberalism runs deep in Brant. 4) Levac is a hard-worker who appears in the local paper regularly. In the past year, Levac received 207 mentions in the Expositor, compared to Sokoloski's 31. (And her total was raised artificially with the PC leadership race.) 5) The NDP here is going nowhere fast. 6) The Tories poured resources in this riding last time, trying to hold a seat without an incumbent and losing it anyway. There are closer fights that will get those resources this time. 7) Sokoloski has been acting like a politician since the last election: criticising Levac, opening up a "PC Action Centre", being a kind of "leader of the local opposition." While that is evidence that she "wants to win" they also make her seem... well, desperate to win. And that negativity just turns voters off. She would have been smarter to find a positive role to play locally on the school or hospital board, built up a record and run from that experience. Instead, she just looks like a hack.


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