Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Last Update:
5:02 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
4:06 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Laurel Broten

Progressive Conservative:
Morley Kells

New Democratic Party:
Irene Jones

Green Party:
Karol Kosnik

Incumbent:

Morley Kells

Federal MP:

Hon. Jean Augustine

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 4879

*MORLEY KELLS

20602 46.98%

LAUREL BROTEN

15723 35.85%

VICKI OBEDKOFF

6457 14.72%

KEVIN MCGOURTY

423 0.96%

DON JACKSON

349 0.8%

JANICE MURRAY

299 0.68%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 13 307

Jean Augustine

22 467 51.8%

David Court

9 160 21.1%

David Haslam

8 453 19.5%

Richard Joseph Banigan

2 835 6.5%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 113914

1996 109253

1991 103438

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 23200

20-39 35135

40-59 27690

60+ 23235

Avg Household Income
$62661

Labour Participation 63.40%

Unemployment 8.90%

Canadian Citizen
87.72%

Canadian Born 60.84%

Ontario Born 51.33%

Immigrant 38.14%

Visible Minority 15.52%

Aboriginal 0.46%

First Language

English 65120

French 1605

Polish 9795

Ukrainian 3865

Italian 3840

Portuguese 2485

Residence

House 49.48%

Apartment 50.15%

Owned 53.02%

Rented 46.98%

Avg Dwelling Value $235458

Education

University 26560

College/Trade School 23675

Secondary 30300

Authorized by the CFO for the Etobicoke-Lakeshore Provincial Liberal Association


	01/10/03	Doug Email:
I've decided to change this prediction. I agree that this should be the The only thing missing from the previous submissions is the wave of high end townhouses and condos that have popped up along the Lakeshore in the last four years and Kells reputation as a maverick. I would take Gerry's prediction - Broten=38%/Kells=35%/Jones=23%/Others=4% - and shift 4 points from Broten to Kells giving Kells a one point advantage. Everyone knows the Liberals are heading for a landslide so the mood for punishing Tories on election day may shift to sympathy for local Tory mavericks like Kells.
	01/10/03	The Sauce Email:
The Liberals are dreaming if they think Irene Jones is only going to get 20% of the vote. The NDP have made a dramatic comeback in Toronto and Jones is the best candidate they have outside of their three sitting members. Jones is much more likely to get 35% of the vote. When that happens, there won't be enough vote left for the Laurel Broten to win. Strange as it may seem, Morley Kells will survive the Liberal sweep of Toronto.
	01/10/03	Che Email: eldavido99@hotmail.com
Broten has spent four years personally canvasing the riding, and continues to do so, earning a high degree of direct contact with the voters, which will pay off on election day. Despite confusing claims by Irene Jones, to have the support of the teachers, the Toronto All Affiliates (OECTA, OSSTF, ETT) are not endorsing either candidate, to avoid a fight which might split the Lib/ NDP vote, and let Kells cakewalk to victory down the middle again. NDP Pollcat polling of the riding last week also indicated weak NDP support. At best Jones will be the election spoiler, but in a Liberal sweep watch for Broten to surf to a win on her nonstop personal canvassing of the riding.
	28/09/03	Tomal Email:
This will be a Liberal win. The NDP will get roughly 20% on election day and anyone who thinks Irene Jones will be higher than that simply has not followed this campaign. Wishes don't always come true. Laurel Broten will be in the low forties, Morley Kells will be in the mid thirties and the NDP will be very, very close to 20%. Take it to the bank (but first visit the riding, drive around and then visit the three headquarters).
	28/09/03	lrs Email:
everything I read says Kells for a backbench MPP is at least holding his own against Lib sweep- but Unless NDP vote over 20%- how can he hold against Lib swing ?- I remember in Lib sweep federally in 1993, this area had one of the best Tory vote totals-Liberal win by 5-10% unless NDP vote is higher than what one would expect- if NDP campaign would have attacked Liberals sooner- may have kept seat Tory
	28/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
I've decided to change this prediction. I agree that this should be the Tories best chance of a seat in Toronto but I think lack of a vested interest in saving Kells will allow Broten to win. The Tories know they are facing a wipeout at the Macro-level. They will concentrate their e-day resources into saving David Young- a man with a future whereas this is Kells' last political hurrah. The province-wide shift is too strong and Kells, unlike Young, has done nothing in the past four years to suggest he will do better than the province wide shift. I don't think he'll do worse but he'll be about the average Tory loser in Toronto. Jones' candidacy makes it close but Broten should still take it by about 1,000. Broten=38%/Kells=35%/Jones=23%/Others=4%
	28/09/03	Craig Email:
I've decided to call this riding Liberal as the Tories are likely going to be shut out in the 416 area code and the NDP aren't quite strong enough, although Irene Jones should move up to second. The general trend is PC to Liberal, and that should show up. The Tories have fallen so far that the vote split means absolutely nothing. Current prediction: Broten 39%, Jones 31%, Kells 24%, Kosnik 4%, others 2%.
	28/09/03	mw Email:
A "hold-your-nose" riding. Irene Jones may be the best candidate, and Kells is one of the more decent Tories, but many people will vote Liberal just to turf the Harris-Evesites out. Look at the signs in front of the big olde (not a spelling mistake) Kingsway homes. Broten is holding her own. If Kells can't win there, he can't win anywhere.
	28/09/03	Lynch Email:
The NDP supporters on this website have flooded in numerous postings describing the party with such words as "powerful", "rising" and "strong". Lets be realistic here. This party is lagging FAR behind in the polls and do not represent a legitimate threat to the Liberals. The ONLY reason they are gaining is the Tory free-fall. The Conservatives are walking on quicksand, and even the bottom-feeder NDP will pick up a few table scraps.
	27/09/03	JW Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
New Toronto Star poll showing that the Tories are heading toward an electoral catastrophe in the City of Toronto, trailing the Liberals 53%-21%. If the numbers are anything like that on polling day, and conventional wisdom suggests that the polls do not move much in the last few days of a campaign as people have already made their minds up, I don't believe Morley Kells can survive. Broten and the Liberals to win here.
	25/09/03	LGIO Email:
Well, there you have it. Now we know why Guy Giorno did not run in Etobicoke Lakeshore in this election. He will be running when Harris and the PC/Alliance Party take a run at Paul Martin
	25/09/03	Craig Email:
I'm having a tough time with this one. It is 'almost' an even three-way race, however some scenarios are making this riding difficult. This is probably the best chance the Tories have of maintaining a seat in the Toronto, but only because of a potential vote split. The Liberals have a weak candidate but pure momentum is on their side, so they could take it based on the red wave. The NDP have the strongest candidate and support from organized labor, but their base isn't that strong here (they only had 15% last time) so they need to pick up soft votes and therefore are trailing right now. This riding should not be decided until election night though. Current prediction: Kells 36%, Broten 34%, Jones 27%, others 3%.
	24/09/03	Checkmate Email:
Morley Kells will be one of only a couple Tories left in Toronto after October 2. Kells is going to survive because the people who oppose him couldn't agree on which candidate to support. Most of the major unions are supporting Irene Jones because they didn't feel that Laurel Broten had any ability to win Etobicoke-Lakeshore after her bad performance last time. There are some break away local union people supporting Broten but all that does is divide the vote. Broten has some of the money people in this riding supporting her but many of them also cut a cheque to Kells too. On election night, Kells will come in with about 38 per cent of the vote while the other two will be in the low 30's.
	22/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: d
I see an NDP gain here. Jones has the name recognition and respect. Liberals are well ahead in the most recent province wide poles. Worry about vote splitting won't be that great. People here would like to see a minority government rather than a Liberal landslide.
	22/09/03	Karnak Email:
If McGuinty does very poorly in the debates Kells will win this riding easily. This would have been a cakewalk for Broten had it not been for the fact that Irene Jones entered into the fray as the NDP candidate. All the labour idealists will go to Jones and the pragmatists will go to Broten. The end result of course will be a Tory victory. One thing is for sure the NDP will finish a very solid third.
	21/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I agree that, rather incredibly, Morley Kells could wind up the last Tory standing in Toronto, and for reasons roughly similar to Patrick Boyer faring better here than any federal Tory save Perrin Beatty in '93: an aura of clicking onto a sort of above-the-fray, indigenously salt-of-the-earth "integrity", the sort of thing which really drew swing voters to the Harris team in 1995. And despite lacking Boyer's Red Tory credentials, Kells is even a fair bet to sustain a lot of the "Bob Rae Tory" electorate, which could paradoxically be worse news for Jones than for Broten, who, as in 1999, is overachieving relative to the supposed Grit-gain pecking order...
	20/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
WD, Name Witheld and Derek are all correct that this is going to be an extremely close race (less than 2000 votes one way or the other) but I must regretfully predict that this is going to Kells. Here's why: A) Even the Tories admit that Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Etobicoke North and Etobicoke Centre are going down. I predict that other Tory Toronto ridings to split 2-2 (see Don Valley West, Scarborough East and Willowdale for my opinions there). This is one of the more likely Tory wins. B) Broten is an unspectatular candidate. I have no doubt that she'd be a good MPP but she doesn't bring the profile of most of the other Toronto Liberal candidates. C) Jones is running a very strong campaign. She can't win but she has deluded herself into thinking that she can. As a result, the NDP is putting lots of resources into this riding and this will hurt Broten. D) The Guy Giorino factor in neither here not there. He claims to have lived at the same address for ten years. If this is the case (and I see no reason to believe he is lying), he can't really claim to live in the riding. However... E) Even if he has "set up house" in this riding, it IS probably because he wants to run in 2007/8. Why? Because, win or lose, this is presumably Morley Kells' last election. He is a good MPP and respected across the house. It would be fitting to see him end up as an opposition Conservative as he's always been opposing the TOries while in government. Conclusion... Kells= 39%/Broten=35%/Jones=23%/Others=4%
	20/09/03	50 Cent Email:
Morley Kells is going to be re-elected for the following reasons. Kells was never a Common Sense Revolutionary. He's more of an old style Davis Tory and that makes voters in his riding feel more comfortable supporting Kells one more time. Kells has been very clever as at times he goes against the party line and the premier which again makes him more of a constituency MPP in the eyes of voters. Broten and Jones will give Kells a contest but on October 2, Morley will still have his job.
	19/09/03	Spice Girl Email:
WD has demonstrated over and over and over again that he knows nothing about the ridings he talks about. This fate of this riding was decided when Irene Jones put her name up as the NDP candidate. With Irene in the race, the NDP were guarenteed at least 25 to 30 per cent of the vote. That leaves Laurel Broten without enough opposition support to beat out Kells. This is so simple. An opposition vote split will hand Kells another term in office. That is the one and only story in this riding. How long Morley decides to stay doesn't mean anything. He's going to win this time.
	19/09/03	Name withheld Email:
If you travel to the south end of the riding, you'll notice a higher preponderance of Irene Jones's signs than in the north (though they are there, just not on the main streets). Not that signs are any indication of who is going to win an election (ask the local Alliance people about that, or Bud Wildman up north for that matter). Right now, the electorate can be divided thusly: 35% for Jones, 20% for either Kells or Broten, 45% who want to vote for Jones but are afraid of electing Kells again. Put this one in the to close to call column, cause it can go any way right now depending on how that vote splits.
	17/09/03	WD Email:
A reply to Guy Giorno (if that IS his real name) concerning his intentions and the Kells campaign: I said "set up house" not "moved to the riding." I trust you will appreciate the difference. Kells was talked out of retiring and is a reluctant participant in this election. Even if he wins (and I will concede to "Mr. Giorno" that it's a tighter race than I first surmised due to election boundary changes and recent construction of higher-priced condos that put a lot of Tories in the riding) there may be a byelection here before the end of four years. If Guy doesn't run for office (in this or any other seat) it will be to the detriment of the party. They could use a talented fellow like him. That said, I still think the south end of the riding will come out to decide this one for the Grits and the Tory vote will soften.
	17/09/03	Derek Email:
Of course Guy Giorno will tell everyone the Kells campaign is going well! The fact is however, Mr. Giorno's conservatives are in a complete free fall in Toronto. The progressive conservatives can spend as much money (this time not the taxpayer's!) as they want on negative attack ads, and other political resources, yet the fact remains; they are going down. I do however believe that Mr. Giorno didn't move into the riding for a future bid. Why does he need to become an MPP? He has already been at the helm of the province for years! Moreover, this race is FAR closer than the tories would like people to believe. Broten is now a name, and it will be a photo finish.
	16/09/03	Guy Giorno Email:
The uninformed posting by WD (lutherraz@hotmail.com) compels a reply. First, the campaign is going very well and responses are even more positive than in 1999. Morley will win a fourth term. Second, WD's suggestion that I have just moved to the riding is patently absurd. I have lived in the same part of Etobicoke since age 2, and in fact have spent the last 10 years at the same address. Might I suggest that you need new (and better) sources, WD?
	06/09/03	Buffy the Liberal Slayer Email:
Reading the newspapers on September 6, the Liberal lead is gone, the Tories have some momentum and it's a dead heat. Broten's only chance of beating Kells was a Liberal sweep of the province. That's not going to happen. The NDP is fading in this election and Irene Jones will go down with Hampton. I can now predict Kells as the winner by 3500 votes.
	05/09/03	Reality Check Email:
There's my old friend WD in desperate need of a reality check in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I guess WD is so busy working for the Liberals, that he's never heard of vote splits. When the NDP line up a great candidate like Irene Jones to run for them, it ended any chance for Laurel Broten to catch Morley Kells. Right now, it's more likeley that Jones could even pass the infamously lazy Broten and finish second here. Kells has always done a good job of playing both the government member and the opposition in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. He's always willing to take a shot at the premier if it helps Kells get re-elected. That's what's going to happen in this riding. No matter what happens province wide, Kells will hold on.
	04/09/03	Fast Eddie Email: ed@interlog.com
Irene Jones has made a fatal mistake: she's campaigning personally. Maybe she's nice when you get to know her, but her first impression is a cold fish. Still, name recognition helps. Too bad for the NDP that it's mostly in the southern half (where she's a city councillor), where the NDP has most of its strength already. To win here, she'd need to nearly triple the previous share of the vote. There's no reason whatever to suppose she can come anywhere close. She'll bring in about 25%. Any increase for the NDP is bad news for Broten, as they'll be taking her votes. She can ill-afford to lose them. Last time she was a no-name candidate and has done nothing since to raise her profile. She brings nothing to the table apart from promising to be a good party loyalist. Looks like a sacrificial lamb. Kells made a fool of himself more than once after the 95 election, yet he got re-elected with a solid margin. Since the last election, he's kept his foot out of his mouth and picked up some responsibilities. He enjoys excellent name recognition throughout the riding. Watch him take over 40% of the vote again. One thing is near-certain: the next MPP here - like the next government - will be someone that the majority didn't want, thanks to our antiquated electoral system.
	28/08/03	WD Email: lutherraz@hotmail.com
Kells is a dead man walking. Sources say that Tory backroom whiz Guy Giorno has set up house in this riding (when he could afford to live anywhere in TO) just so he can say he lives there when Kells flames out. In other words, the Tories expect to lose in Etobicoke, and Giorno expects to feast on the corpse of Kells to set himself up for 2007/08.
	09/08/03	Paint My Fence Email:
Irene Jones is the one star candidate the NDP have in Toronto. She's built a loyal following from her work on city council and along with the overall gains the NDP are making in Toronto, this means Jones is a player in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Jones will take votes away from Laurel Broten's Liberal campaign and this puts Morley Kells in a position to win again thanks to the story of the 2003 campaign. Votes splits.
	01/08/03	Tomal Email:
In the last election in this riding the NDP lost their deposit. They had less than 15% of the vote. They have never won this riding. They held the old riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore which was 35% smaller. The new riding includes the Kingsway and a big chunk of middle Etobicoke. Ruth Grier came in third in her last election in 1995. The NDP is currently running at roughly 9% in public opinion polls in Etobicoke. I understand that the most pious of the New Democrats have an emotional tie to this riding because a piece of it was represented in the old days by people like Ruth Grier and Pat Lawlor but come on. To suggest that the New Democrats are competetive in this riding is ridiculous. If the New Democrats win this riding they will form government. We should at least wait to see who their candidate is. Irene Jones is currently filling the spot for her Party but nobody seriously believes she will run if the provincial election conflicts with the municipal election (Irene has refused to say if she will be running municipally and that says it all). If the Liberals lose this riding they will not form government.
	12/07/03	Tre Cool Email:
If it were up to me, I'd list Etobicoke-Lakeshore as a contest between the Tories and the New Democrats. Irene Jones gives the NDP a chance to be very competative in there while Laurel Broten is not part of the story. Even though Irene Jones is well respected, she's not going to be able to gain enough support to be able to reach Morley Kells who looks like he's never going to retire.
	31/05/03	Beanie Baby Email:
Everyone seems to be counting Kells out. Not me. He is going to surprise quite a few people. He is well known, his constit staff is very competent and he understands the grassroots. Look for him to still be here when the dust settles.
	24/05/03	El Predicto Email:
What I'm saying ARL is that it doesn't matter if Irene Jones is committed to running even if there's a fall election. The NDP are at an all time low in the polls which takes Jones out of any chance to win Etobicoke-Lakeshore. If I were ARL I'd be worried about holding on to the three seats the NDP have in Toronto and forget about this riding. I stand by my prediction that the Tories will win this riding on a vote split.
	23/05/03	AL Email: andylehrer@sympatico.ca
Grizz' methodology seems to be simply looking at the "numbers" of the last election without any deeper analysis or background knowledge. Using his method one would have never predicted a Liberal win in 1985, an NDP win in 1990 or a Tory win in 1995. Not only are you only looking at one election but you're completely ignoring the circumstances of that election and how they differ from this election (eg no "strategic voting" campaign by unions this time encouraging traditional NDPers to vote Liberal).
	23/05/03	Harinder Singh Email:
The Liberals and PCs will fight over this riding, but the real question is the vestigial NDP, a shadow of the Grier machine of the past. If the NDP experience a vote revival here, they will reelect the Tory incumbent. If they NDP vote remains mired in the teens, the Liberal candidate will likely win. The likeliest outcome is a slight NDP revival base on Jones' better name recognition over Obedkoff, but a stall based around latent "strategic voting" impulses in the swing NDP-Liberal population. The middle-class neighbourhoods along the Kingsway are the likely site of significant defections from Kells to Broten, based around declining support for the Tories in middle-class Toronto. The Liberals will hold the Italian pockets and improve among the Poles and Ukranians. That means a narrow, narrow finish: either Tory or Liberal win as both finish around 38-41%, with the NDP around 18-21%. Whether its 18% or 21% will decide the election. Voters deciding between the Liberals and NDP will actually decide the race between the Liberals and Tories. One to watch.
	23/05/03	Craig Email:
Close race, but it certainly will not go NDP. The polls alone suggest a Liberal romp here (and revenge for Broten) but the NDP candidate Irene Jones may pick up some left-leaning Liberal votes to create the close race (it won't be enough for a three-way race though). The Liberals are sure going to be upset that a strong NDP candidate was nominated. Predicted results: PC 37%, LIB 36%, NDP 23%, Green 3%. Too close to call though, it could go either way.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
I am in complete agreement with El Predicto's earlier comments that with a popular (relativlely) NDP candidate the vote will be split allowing the PC to win this riding. I also can't help but wonder what a couple of my pundit colleagues are thinking when they claim the NDP have a prayer of winning this riding. Look at the numbers people! It ain't going to happen.
	03/05/03	ARL Email:
What I'm saying, El Predicto, is that Irene Jones is committed to running in the provincial election no matter what. Does that mean she won't run for reelection municipally if the provincial election is delayed until next spring? No, but it does mean she won't pull resign her provincial nomination because of the eleciton date. As for whether she'll file as a municipal candidate if the provincial eleciton is called for after the municipal cut off date and then withdraw from the municipal election if she wins provincially? I don't know. Ask Paul Sutherland and Brad Duguid. There's no law preventing someone from filing muncipally while running provincially just as there's no law requiring a muncipal councillor to resign her seat in order to run provincially. All I know is that unlike Brad Duguid who has registered municipally while being nominated provincially, Jones has not registered municipally and is committed to running provincially.
	25/04/03	El Predicto Email:
There's my old friend ARL looking through his rose coloured glasses again and dreaming of impossible NDP victories. I can tell you one thing for sure. There is no way the Tories are going to call an election this spring. That means the earliest we could have an election is the end of September. The cutoff date for turning in your papers to run municipally is the last week of September. Is ARL really saying Irene Jones won't ever bother to file papers to run for her seat on city council? What if the election is pushed back to the spring of 2004? Time to stop dreaming. Irene will file her papers and run for council because she knows she can't win a provincial race.
	10/04/03	ARL Email:
Irene Jones has said this week that she's in the race no matter when the election is called. This will help her since voters won't be able to vote for Kells knowing that Jones will still represent them on City Council (something which has hurt other city councillors running for higher office in the past). Kells has been at Queen's Park on and off for almost 30 years - voters who vote for "the candidate" will vote for Jones and retire Kells rather than risk losing Jones altogether.
	08/04/03	Big Red Email:
All bets are off with a fall election. Irene Jones willy likely not be able to run because she will not want to give up a chance to run municipally if she is not successful.
	05/04/03	Operator Email:
I think this will be a fight between PC and Lib. While the Tories contines to crumble, Kells continues to show that he is really not that keen about the seat and would have much rather received a nice appointment. The NDP has shift their focus to Etobicoke North given the disarray and bloodshed within the Liberal nomination there, the NDP's strong history (they scored well over 20% even in 99), and the fact that they have the head of the Ontario Skih running in a heavy Skih riding. Broten is a bit slow out of the gate though, but certainly not impossible to catch up.
	05/04/03	ME Email:
With Kells running again and the election likely to be delayed, I am willing to now bet on the Liberals here, especially if the election is not called until fall. Irene Jones is not going to give up a guarentee seat on council for something unattainable. My bet is she will back out as soon as it becomes clear that the election will not be called until fall to concentrate on her reelection campaign. Plus, the NDP supporters should have learnt their lessons from 1999 when they wasted their vote and let Kells slip in. As long as the Tories continue to fall apart like they have been, this should be a Liberal prospect.
	20/03/03	Not Non Partisan Email:
Morley will win in a badly split vote. Broten will actually lose votes in big numbers to popular NDP city Councillor Irene Jones, but the Tory core vote tends be stay pretty solid here. Shouldn't forget how long Kells has been here. He was a Davis/Miller minister and when he was out of office NDipper Ruth Grier held the seat. I just don't believe that lefty Jones can pass both Broten and Kells in progressively more upscale riding. Editor Note: Actually, Kells represented Humber (20% redistributed to Lakeshore and 80% to Etobicoke Centre), not Lakeshore, during the Davis years.
	18/03/03	El Predicto Email:
You have to give it to the NDP. They always manage to come up with these overly optimistic people who think they have a chance in ridings where they didn't get their rebate back last time. The NDP ran the high profile Vicky Obedkoff in Etobicoke-Lakeshore last time and she ended up with 14% of the vote. Irene Jones will do better for the NDP this time but all she and Laurel Broten are going to do is split the vote and let Morley Kells come up the middle. This is the classic example of how vote splitting lets the Tories win ridings.
	16/03/03	AL Email:
With the NDP vote recovering this working class riding formerly represented by Ruth Grier should come into play, especially with popular NDP city councillor Irene Jones as the candidate.
	08/03/03	El Predicto Email:
It's a shame people don't read the note posted on this riding that Morley Kells has been nominated for the Tories. Irene Jones, the very popular city councillor was nominated by the NDP to be their candidate in this riding last week. As a said before the NDP nominated Irene, she's going to split the opposition vote and Morley Kells will keep this riding in the Tory fold. Time to move this one into the Tory column.
	27/02/03	Andy Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
Does anybody know if Guy Giorno is confirmed as the Tory candidate? If he is then I feel it will be closer because Giorno is one of the architects of the Common Sense Revolution, and I personally feel since I grew up next door to the riding and this is a riding that would not support a far right Tory like Giorno. I think Giorno would have been better off running in Mississauga South then Etobicoke-Lakeshore. I feel if Kells runs for the Tories they'll win, if Giorno runs then it is a close ball game and if the NDP manages to gain more votes then Giorno will win.
	27/02/03	ME Email:
While the race in Lakeshore is between the Liberal (Broten) and the PC (Giorno), the deciding factor is whether Irene Jones actually runs for the NDP. NDP fails to realize that their chance of winning here has retired with Terry and Ruth Grier. Last time they argued that they should be the strategic choice, and guess what, no deposit refund. Irene Jones will probably earn the deposit back for the NDP this time, but not by much. Throwing excessive resource in hopeless campaigns is simply going to let Guy Giorno slip by and beat Broten... sounds familar? Correction: Morley Kells has been officially nominated
	27/02/03	play toy vs boy toy Email:
C'mon, people, Morley Kells is sitting on his hands waiting for a patronage appointment from Ernie. Ernie is just playing tough to get because Morley talked about play-toy during the leadership, but is surely going to find something for Morley before the election to ship him away. All signs are pointing to one Guy Giorno carrying the banner for the Tories. Correction:Edited. Morley Kells has been officially nominated
	27/02/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Morley Kells to win Etobicoke-Lakeshore. You can bet the kid's college fund on Krusty Kells winning big. The LIBS and the NDP will be fighting it out for place and show positions as Kells hobbles over the finish line first.
	14/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Morley Kells is going to hang on in Etobicoke-lakeshore because NDP city councillor, Irene Jones is going to split the opposition vote with Liberal Laural Broten. Broten's chances of taking the riding were gone as soon as Jones lined up for the NDP. Kells is still personally popular in this riding for taking on his party leader from time to time. Mark this one down for the Tories.
	13/11/02	Andrew Cox Email:
Too close to call. Reasons. 1) While Kells says he wants to run again, he might not have the option. Lots of rumours that former Harris Chief of Staff Guy Giorno, now the riding president and a Toronto Star regular commentator, wants the nomination. 2) Kells would put up a good fight, he's represented the area off and on for twenty years. 3) Giorno would be a major mistake. The Harris-era poster boy would attract organizers from across the province looking to take out the author of much of the Common Sense Revolution. His Star columns could be thrown back at him. Worst of all, backroomers typically try to run their own campaigns and screw it all up. 4) Broten is a good candidate who hasn't really stopped running since 1999. "Strategic voters" went with the NDP last time, but their distant 3rd place showing will push them into the Grit camp. 5) A few local issues (Lakeview generating station, waterfront redevelopment) are still playing out. Conclusion: its too early to tell here. It will likely depend on the nomination. A Giorno candidacy makes the Grits a sure thing. A Kells candidate makes it a race.
	12/11/02	Adam Sobolak Email: adma@interlog.com
Wasn't school trustee/former candidate/long-time Liberal operator Bruce Davis vetted for the E-L Grit nomination? Strange that it's Broten that's running again--though she did a good job of pummelling what was left of the NDP's erstwhile strength in '99 (but because the NDP was the endorsed "strategic alternative", that meant mutual cancellation on Morley Kells' behalf). On the other hand, I hear Morley might be making way for a big Tory player (Guy Giorno?). Unfortunately for the Tories, this is Toronto; fortunately for the Tories, this is Etobicoke. And the NDP's almost guaranteed to stake it's "traditional" claim yet again in the Lakeshore. Interesting prelude dynamics here; wonder what the election will hold...
	22/10/02	Burke Email:
This will be a close race. Laurel Broten will be taking on Morley Kells here and he did not capture a plurality in the last election. Laurel has been on the ground knocking on doors and has established a presence for herself. If the NDP vote collapses enough the Liberals may be able to take this riding from the Tories. The only thing Morley has going for him in Etobicoke Lakeshore is his name recognition. If the Tories field other candidate there is no gaurantee for them in this riding.

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