Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Etobicoke North

Last Update:
3:33 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
1:35 PM 29/09/2003



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Shafiq Qaadri
Progressive Conservative:
Baljit Gosal
New Democratic Party:
Kuldip Singh Sodhi
Green Party:
Joel Ornoy

Incumbent:
John Hastings

Federal MP:
Roy Cullen

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality1446

*JOHN HASTINGS
13065 38.27%

SHAFIQ QAADRI
11619 34.03%

ED PHILIP
8166 23.92%

MARK STEFANINI
580 1.7%

DIANE JOHNSTON
489 1.43%

MARILYN PEPPER
223 0.65%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001118583
1996115067
1991104029

(1996 census)

Age
0-1933695
20-3939300
40-5924885
60+17190

Avg Household Income

$46703
Labour Participation62.60%
Unemployment12.90%

Canadian Citizen

80.17%
Canadian Born45.30%
Ontario Born40.54%
Immigrant52.50%
Visible Minority52.91%
Aboriginal0.27%

First Language
English58920
French725
Punjabi8460
Italian8555
Spanish3925
Arabic2840
Tamil2160

Residence
House53.65%
Apartment46.32%
Owned52.90%
Rented47.10%
Avg Dwelling Value$193908

Education
University17175
College/Trade School22990
Secondary35190



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
01/10/03 Judi Bud
Email:
What a story. After turning Qaadri down time and time again, the Liberals finally give him the nomination just as the election is called. Then Qaadri goes on to win Etobicoke North. This is one they'll be talking about long after October 2. I think the Liberals could have run anyone in this riding and ended up winning it.
29/09/03 observer
Email: no
I think this is liberal pick for sure. I heard even Gosal's hesitation in debating one on one basis with Qadri. Qadri is very fluent in English and French. For Gosal, english seems is second language. My guess about 31,000 will vote. qadri about 15000 vote, Sodhi 7000. Gosal 9000. I bet Qadri be in Cabinet, he is very smart and experienced communicator.
29/09/03 Scott Glenbrae
Email:
The NDP has the strongest showing in Etobicoke North. Shafiq Qaadri has missed many opportunities to build a solid campaign. Baljit Gosal is the 3rd choice for PC and clearly has no support. Qaadri is very arrogant and the public dislikes him. Kuldip Singh Sodhi will win, and his is a much needed seat for a balance of power in the house.
28/09/03 lrs
Email:
this was one of better picks last time-this time but I cannot see how Libs cannot win- just because some of the unions were committed to back NDP- no doubt voters who want change smeel blood- Tory last minute candidate and Lib ran before-perhaps Lib candidate can explain to his fellow caucus what doctors want in regards to our medical system
28/09/03 Ivan
Email:
The result in this riding will be close, but perhaps not the close squeaker that many people predict. It is true that the Liberal candidate, Dr Qaadri, was inserted at the last minute and did not really have all the cogs turning until the second week of the election. However with the help of some experienced party staff that were brought into the riding, the campaign has seemingly done a 180 degree turn from it's late start and seems to be the most active and vigorous of the three main candidates. Dr Qaadri has been courted by many of the community groups and has the support of many of the ethnic community leaders in Etobicoke North. The all candidates debate held by the Thistletown Ratepayers Association also went extremely well for the Liberal candidate. Dr Qaadri was, by far, the most impressive candidate in the debate last Tuesday. However, it is not clear if this performance will translate into votes beyond the 100+ that were at the event as there was no article in last weeks Etobicoke Guardian regarding the debate. Overall though, the sentiment in this riding seems to be flowing towards the Liberal camp at this belated stage of the campaign. Although the late start has hampered the Liberals in this riding, the overall media coverage, the community leader support, the traditional federal Liberal support, and the sentiment in the neighbourhoods seem to point towards a Liberal victory, by 2000-3000 votes, in the riding.
28/09/03 Lynch
Email:
The NDP supporters on this website have flooded in numerous postings describing the party with such words as "powerful", "rising" and "strong". Lets be realistic here. This party is lagging FAR behind in the polls and do not represent a legitimate threat to the Liberals. The ONLY reason they are gaining is the Tory free-fall. The Conservatives are walking on quicksand, and even the bottom-feeder NDP will pick up a few table scraps.
27/09/03 observer
Email: dp not wish to display my e-mail
this riding will go liberal. In the past Tories won being strong three way race. I belive people who voted in the past to NDP not necessary they were NDP, I thing Ed philip was so popular there that thay Kept voting for NDP because of him. That factor is no longer there. Very good possibility of that vote switching to liberal as federally liberals this riding has always got over 65% votes. Both NDP and Conservative candidates are unknown with liberal being so high in polls in toronto. this riding is definitely liberal win.
27/09/03 R.H.
Email:
In 1999, teachers' federations endorsed the NDP in this riding and split the anti-Tory vote. Shafiq Qaadri was narrowly defeated as a result, but despite the fact many OSSTF members are once again supporting the NDP, Qaadri has a strong central campaign behind him now and should prevail. The latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows the Liberals running at 53% in the 416 area code which should turn this riding red in just a matter of days.
24/09/03 Checkmate
Email:
Let's start with the Liberals in Etobicoke North. This has to be the worst campaign the Liberals are running in Toronto. They are so disorganized it's hard to believe this party is heading toward taking this election. The Tories aren't in any better shape and the way the things are going, this party is all but going to be wiped out in Toronto. With the Liberals and the Tories in shambles, the NDP have a golden oportunity to pick up a valuable seat in this riding. Sodhi has clearly run the best local campaign and will be helped by Hampton's showing in the leader's debate. The Liberals and Tories are going to hand Etobicoke North to the NDP and they have no one to blame but themselves.
22/09/03 Karnak
Email:
The Liberals are presently at 50% in the polls. The NDP is in the low double digits. In the last election strategic voting backfired because the labour coalition backed the NDP when they should have backed the Liberals. Given that the last election clearly demonstrated that the Liberal party is the more viable threat to the Tories in this riding, Qaadri should easily get the benefit of the doubt this time. To date, I have not heard that the teachers are behind Sodhi. My understanding is that only OSSTF is. In any case, it will be difficult to convince the average teacher to support the NDP here. I think teachers are still uncomfortable at the impact they felt with the Social contract and I think many who bought into strategic voting last time, felt the sting in this riding and are still reeling from it. They will not follow their leadership in this one.
21/09/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
No Hastings, no Philip. Regardless of the nomination confusion leading to the drop of the writ, I'll gamble this into Liberal turf, if only because it's trended into a logical westward filling-out of the NW Toronto "red belt". And in the bigger picture, sadly, Kuldip Singh Sodhi's ethnicity *is* probably electorally offputting--which may be defensively why his large election signs feature both him *and* Howard Hampton...
21/09/03 ASX
Email:
I think this riding will go NDP. However, I am deeply disappointed that all parties, especially the NDP, selected candidates that do not live in Etobicoke North. Qaadri lives has near Bayview (mansion probably), Sodhi lives in Bowmanville and not sure where Goshal resides, but I know for a fact itís not North Etobicoke. Traditionally, this riding as been an NDP strong hold with the exception of the previous two elections; 50% of residents are immigrants and has the lowest per capita income in the entire city. Goshal really doesnít have a chance to win this riding and not sure why he is even trying, also the PC anti-immigrant stance will not help his cause. Qaadri doesnít know the first thing about politics and should stop using political elections and CTV appearances to promote his medicine practice. This is probably one of two ridings that will do NDP this election.
19/09/03 JR
Email:
Have checked out the three campaigns and would have to give the current edge to Singh Sodhi. Most Lib and PC signs are on public property in an act of desparation. NDP office was the busiest of the three (Tory office usually empty). Ed Phillip (former MPP) is now pulling hard for Singh Sodhi. All unions and the teachers are also backing Singh Sodhi.
17/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
This is the only riding in TOronto where the Tories should (unless they sink even lower by e-day) win: A) Morley Kells is respected all around, even by Liberals. He's the maverick moderate member who is very difficult to displace. B) Laurel Broten in not bringing anything that she did not bring in 1999 where she lost by 5,000 votes. C) That 5,000 votes is going to be difficult to pick up because of the strength of the Irene Jones campaign. The NDP cannot win this riding but they have deluded themselves into thinking they can and it's going to cost us big time. D) I recently spoke to a colleague who I consider to be a very reliable resource and he says that this is last on the Liberal hit list in Toronto. Centre, North, Scarborough SW and Scarborough C will be won. WIllowdale, Scarborough E and Don Valley West are definately winnable but this riding would be considered merely unnecessary icing for the Grits.
16/09/03 Bryan
Email: lipps170@hotmail.com
The teachers union has made a grave mistake endorsing an NDP candidate. Strategically, the smart choice would have been Dr.Qaadri. He only lost the riding by 1400 votes. With Hastings gone, this riding would have been a sure bet. However, Dr. Qaadri is a far stronger candidate than the NDPer, and the tory candidate has no hope. It is amazing the teachers still support the NDP after the social contract during the Rae years. I suppose in 4 years they will vote for the conservatives! Quaadri by a head.
11/09/03 A
Email:
Eves' anti-immigrant demagoguery will kill the Tories in this riding. This has become a race between the Liberals and the NDP.
09/09/03 Karnak
Email:
Etobicoke North will go Liberal. 1) Qaadri finished a close second in the last election. Actually, the Tories won this riding by the smallest plurality of any seat they took in Toronto. 2) Qaadri has better name recognition than either of the NDP or Tory candidates. 3) Ed Phillip had deeper and stronger support heading into the 1995 election and was able to steal a victory from Qaadri and the Liberals 4) The Tory candidate was only recently nominated (The Sunday prior to the dropping of the writs, I believe. 5) While it is true that OSSTF has supported the NDP candidate here, it is very unlikely that other teacher groups will be actively supporting the NDP here 6)The polling data referred to by an earlier contributor put the NDP ahead of the Liberals, but the poll was conducted before all the party candidates had been selected. Even still , that Pollara poll put the NDP only marginally ahead of the Liberals (Well within the margin of error) 7) I believe the Liberals are heading into this election stronger and better prepared (McGuinty will perform better than he did last time) 8) The Tories are going into this election weaker than they did last time.
04/09/03 Political Hack
Email:
It's clear that the Liberals have given up on Etobicoke North by digging up past failed candidate Shafiq Qaadri to run for them at the last minute. This would be a Liberal riding now if they had run anyone else other than Qaadri in 1999. Qaadri couldn't beat the worst Tory MPP in history, in John Hastings last time. So coming in at the last minute, with no money and a short writ period, now Qaadri has to play catch up. The NDP ended up making the right move here. They went out and found a solid candidate in Sodhi and gave him months to get out there and work the riding. The Liberals and the Tories wasted months trying to find themselves a sure thing and it didn't happen. I don't think the NDP will be picking up too many seats this time but Etobicoke North will be one.
01/09/03 Wilf Day
Email: dayphope@on.aibn.com
OSSTF District 12 has endorsed Kuldip Singh Sodhi and says "According to recent polls, he leads his closest rival, the Liberal candidate, by several percentage points and the Tory candidate is an even more distant 3rd." Considering that they are also endorsing some Liberals, that seems to have some credibiity. "At the moment Sodhi is the only OSSTF-endorsed NDP candidate in Toronto, and D12 members are being encouraged to join his Etobicoke North campaign . . . as well as those from Peel and York Region who want to work to defeat Tory incumbents but prefer working for an NDP candidate." Sounds like a winner.
01/09/03 Craig
Email:
The story here will be the procrastinating of the Tories and Liberals, while the NDP have been off and strong for a long time and collecting support. Despite being tucked in the corner of Toronto, this is going to be a key NDP pickup with a candidate built on local issues coupled with 2 parties that have been rushing (and the Liberals still do not have a candidate!) and both taking it for granted. Guess what? Kuldip Singh Sodhi, with strong community connections, is going to come up the middle and steal it from both of them! Current prediction: Sodhi 42%, Elahi 34%, Liberals 17% (worst result in Ontario), Ornoy 3%, others 4%.
29/08/03 Matt
Email: matt123@beachestoronto.com
SHAFIQ QAADRI will be named the Liberal Candidate this week. After all te fuss, the good Doctor is back and he will be successful this time. The Libs have pledged cask and bodies here to draw him back. Yes it has been a mess here, but the voting public doesn't know that. The public in each riding likely doesn't know their candidate at all yet never mind the policics on how they became a candidate. As well, it looks as if the PC party has dumped their guy. So rather than having a guy that lost the federal election badly, they have a candidate that lost the last municiple election badly. Qaadri by 5000 votes.
30/08/03 Dog Eat Dog
Email:
After calling just about anyone and everyone they could think of over the last two years, the Liberal came up empty and now have decided to let Shafiq Qaadri run again for them. It doesn't say much for the Liberals and their chances in this riding. Qaadri couldn't beat John Hastings in 1999 when he should have walked away with the win. It's looking more and more like the NDP are going to win Etobicoke North. They line up a candidate months ago and worked the riding while the Tories and the Liberals wasted time looking for a big name candidate.
27/08/03 Call Me Shades
Email:
OK, I'm sold. The Tories and the Liberals don't have candidates to run in Etobicoke North and the election starts in a week. I have to give this riding to the NDP who have a pretty good candidate in Sodhi and are the only party who've done anything in this riding during the pre-writ period. The other two parties will throw candidate in to the race about a week into the election but by then we all know you can't catch up in a 28 day writ. This will be an NDP riding on October 2.
25/08/03 Reality Check
Email:
The election could be called any time in the next week or so and the Liberals cannot find a candidate to run in Etobicoke North. I think the Liberals need a reality check if they think they can throw anyone into this riding a few days into the election and win it. What the Liberals have done is open the door for the NDP to pick up a new seat in Toronto. Etobickoke North still has an NDP base from the Ed Phillip days. Kuldip Sodhi has been running a very effective campaign in this multi-cultural riding and he's positioning himself to win this seat. The Tories will hold their minimum level of support but don't have a chance to win this seat. So with a whole lot of help from the Liberals, the NDP are going to take Etobicoke North.
22/08/03 Grant
Email:
Curious. If you go to the Tories web site, Mahmood Elahi's name has been taken down as the PC candidate for Etobicoke North. It doesn't look like a computer glitch, as Rose Andrachuk's name has been added in the interm as the candidate for Etobicoke Centre. Could it be that Doug Holyday, Gloria Lindsay-Luby, Rob Ford or another municipal councillor is looking for a cushier ride here than against Donna Cansfield in Etobicoke Centre? All this chaos makes the NDP look like they have a comparatively well oiled machine here. Shame that Ed Phillip didn't take another crack at the seat. With this game of musical chairs going on, hell, there could have been a slim chance he could have grabbed it back. But right now, it's too close to call.
20/08/03 Money Man
Email: $$$$$$$
I'm not sure who's going to win Etobicoke North but the Liberals are going to have a tough time pulling it out. Being without a candidate has made it very difficult for the Grits to raise any money in this riding. So when they do throw a candidate in at the last minute, not only will that candidate have to play catchup on all the logistics of an election, they won't have any money to run on. That's why I think this riding is going to end up being a race between the NDP and the Conservatives with the Liberals just not able to get into it.
23/07/03 Backseat Driver
Email:
This is the riding that nobody wants to win. The NDP did backflips to get Ed Phillips to run again but he decided to stay out. So instead the NDP got stuck with Kuldip Sodhi who even the party stallwards have a hard time getting worked up about because Sodhi is so bad. The Tories wanted John Hasting gone because they thought they had Rob Ford. When crunch time came, Ford demanded a seat at the cabinet table and Ernie Eves turned him down. Now the Tories have a cast off Alliance candidate in Elahi who is as bad a candidate as you could find in this riding. Then we have the Liberals who've gone after Bay Street lawyers and federal cabinet ministers like Jane Stuart and come up empty. Now the Liberals would settle for a warm body to run in Etobicoke North and can't even find someone like that. I don't know what is going to happen in Etobicoke North right now but if I were the NDP, I'd get rid of Sodhi and give Ed Phillip anything he wants to come back and run in his old riding. Put Phillip on the ballot and this riding would likely go NDP. I guess we'll have to see just how bad the Liberal candidate is before we really get a handle on Etobicoke North. Whatever happens, all three parties have blown it in this riding. I feel sorry for the unfortunate voters who have to mark a ballot for one of these bottom feeding candidates.
18/07/03 CHI
Email:
An unnamed former Ward 17 councilwoman will be the Dalton candidate here. and for the record, there was a huge conservative split here in the last municipal, so to judge Crisanti based on that is a little unfounded, that and the fact he lost by less than a hundred votes.
09/07/03 Matt
Email:
Mahmood Elahi? You have got to be kidding. What a terrible candidate. A former Alliance candidate that got 20% in the 2000 federal vote. Boy, the Tories would have done better to keep Hastings. The Liberals are talking to Jane Stewart and would win easily if she agrees. However based on the Tory candidate, they could win with a trained monkey.
24/06/03 ARL
Email:
Further research on Tory Vince Crasanti - seems he lost in the 1994, 1997 and 2000 municipal elections. With the Tories unable to find a credible candidate and being forced to choose between a 3 time loser municipally and a loser federally who got 20% of the vote despite running in one of the few ridings without a right wing split it's pretty clear that the Tories are going down in Etobicoke North.
24/06/03 ARL
Email:
While the Tory trumpeters on this website already had George Chuvalo elected MPP, it looks like Chuvalo gave the Tories a pass. Instead the Tories have a choice before a Canadian Alliance candidate who only managed 20% of the vote in the last federal election (despite the lack of a federal Tory candidate in the riding) and Vince Crisanti who was defeated by Suzan Hall in the last municiapl election.
25/06/03 Craig
Email:
Several developments here: According to a Toronto Star article, Dalton McGuinty is expected to nominate a candidate himself (appoint one) and Chuvalo is NOT the candidate, instead the Tories have been approaching candidates for possible appointments too. These developments make me think that the NDP are going to come through and steal this, since they have been working for quite some time and there will be anger on both the Tory and Liberal camps. The article says the NDP aren't expected to be a factor - I disagree, I think they will take this one now. Predicted results: NDP 35%, PC 29%, LIB 28%, Green 6%.
21/06/03 Slim Shady
Email:
The Liberals can't find a candidate in Etobicoke North because there is still a very solid base of support for the NDP here. That NDP support doesn't leave the Liberals with enough votes to catch up to the Tories. That's how John Hasting won last time and that's how George Chuvalo will win the seat this time.
16/06/03 Craig (Updated Prediction)
Email:
If that nomination is true, the Tories have self-destructed here and lost the seat. Celebrity candidates with no political experience are always bound to fail, and it will happen here too, especially as the Tories continue to collapse. Several scenarios remain though. 1) A strong Liberal candidate with political experience - easy Liberal pickup 2) A weak Liberal candidate - Liberal/NDP close race decided in the polls and debates 3) Dalton McGuinty appoints a candidate - easy NDP pickup. It is too hard to predict the actual results now since there are 3 possible scenarios. However, all I can say is the Tories are no longer in the race.
09/06/03 Piggly Wiggly
Email:
The Tories have landed George Chuvalo and they've just won Etobicoke North. This is a big defeat for the Liberals in the west end of Toronto. They were counting on winning this riding and now it's gone.
08/06/03 AL
Email:
The only reason the Tories would have asked Chuvalo is because Rob Ford had the good sense to realise that the riding is lost. George Chuvalo would have been an impressive candidate in the 1960s but few voters know who he is today. The Tories have tried to run "celebrity" political novices before in desperate attempts to hold on to ridings, remember Patricia DeVilliers or Durhane Wong-Reiger, only to see them go down to defeat. Besides, Chavalo has a number of liabilities, allegations of tax evasion and being a slumlord, which would come back to haunt him should he run for office. Indeed, I'd be suprised if Chavlo risked his reputation by running for office - look for him to say no.
06/06/03 Scoop Jackson
Email:
If it's true and the Tories really have lined up boxing legend George Chuvalo as their candidate, then they've just won this riding. There is nobody the Liberals could put up as a candidate that could beat Chuvalo.
30/05/03 Political Hack
Email:
Voters in Etobicoke North knew who Ed Philip was and that's why he got 8000 votes. To say that Sodhi has the same profile as Ed Philip is wildly unrealistic. With no candidates for either the Tories or the Liberals, it's hard to pick a winner here but one thing for sure. Sodhi won't be getting anywhere near the 8000 votes Philip did.
27/05/03 bob
Email: bbquigley@yahoo.com
PC incumbent Hastings has bailed. The NDP have a strong community-based candidate in a traditional stronghold, remember Ed Philips? The left recently won big in a school board by-election there and want this one. It's an NDP take, count on it.
23/05/03 Craig
Email:
A riding the Tories and Liberals are saying is critical to them - but the longer they fight it out without a nominated candidate, the NDP is going to keep making gains with a candidate that represents the huge minority population here and a decent result in 1999. This is setting up a surprise three-way race - the Tory and Liberal camps better get going soon or this may soon become an NDP pickup (and Dalton better not just appoint a candidate either as he has in several ridings, or it will likely be a Tory hold with Liberals falling to third). Predicted results (bound to change though): NDP 32%, PC 30%, LIB 29%, Green 4%. It is still way too early to declare a winner here.
08/05/03 Scoop Jackson
Email:
This is the only riding in Ontario where the Liberals and the Tories both don't have candidates nominated. Here's the latest on this strange riding. My contacts with the Tories tell me that the rumours are true. John Hastings will not be their candidate. I'm told Rob Ford won't be running for the Tories either. What I did get from my Tory contacts is that they are talking to an Etobicoke businessman about running. My Liberal contacts tell me that even though he wants to run again, Shafiq Qaadri will not be their candidate. Right now the Liberals are talking to a Bay Street player. Both the Liberals and the Tories see Etobicoke North as a must win riding but you'd never know it from the way they are both failing to lock down a candidate. Keep your eye on this riding.
30/03/03 Toronto Star
Nunziata attracting right support
Yet another city councillor is pondering a leap into provincial politics: far-right Tory hothead and Chris Farley look-alike Rob Ford.
The provincial Liberals have long considered Etobicoke North, held by Tory MPP John Hastings, to be among the more winnable ridings in Toronto. And though the Liberals continue to waffle and jerk around potential candidates (among them former city councillor Mario Giansante), they'll soon have a candidate to take on Hastings.
But if, for argument's sake, Hastings could be persuaded to take a nice, cushy provincial government job, Ford says he would happily step into the breach.
We suspect a majority of fellow councillors and senior staff (for various reasons) are hoping Ford goes for the gusto."
17/03/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Most of the other contributors to this board seem to think that John Hastings will run again. I don't, and I suspect that this will make the prospect of a Liberal gain all the more likely.
14/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
In 1999 I gave this one to Ed Philip & the NDP--but with the kind of guarded caveat that indicated I knew something "wasn't right". So, out of opposite reflex, I was ready to hand Etobicoke North to the Liberals this time. After all, John Hastings has been an electoral "accident" twice over, and the demographics have changed so enormously that it's difficult to see how this *couldn't* follow the Grit delirium of the rest of Toronto's NW. (Note that Liberals fared worst against the PC-NDP juggernaut among the aging lower-WASP demos of 1950s Rexdale--a demo in eclipse, to be sure.) And with Ed Philip out of the picture, the NDP retires its raison d'etre up here, right? (Indeed, the New Democrats these days have a better chance in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, what with Irene Jones and more of a Laytonian urban-yuppie latency.) Well, now that I see how the NDP has recalibrated its local strategy, I'm far less certain about the "inevitable" Liberal drop in the bucket. And it's the same as across a lot of the 905; don't underestimate the Tories, either. No matter what the skin colour or ethnicity, home owners with their voting power still (theoretically) harbour a degree of "Martin Liberal" good will and thankfulness t/w the provincial PCs. So, sad to say, John Hastings could be "third time lucky"--and it may take an ugly tinge if he does so as the only "white Anglo" candidate...
09/03/03 Rob D.
Email:
In light of the impending war on Iraq, I think the NDP's strong pro-peace stance and commitment to fighting wartime racism(*) will resound well in this riding where 52% of residents are immigrants and visible minorities. Kuldp Singh Sodhi is chair of the Ontario Federation of Sikhs and an excellent representative for the party under these circumstances.
14/02/03 El Predicto
Email:
Tory John Hastings held on to the seat here in 1999 because old time New Democrat, Ed Phillips got 8100 votes. This split the opposition support and Hastings came through the middle. The NDP don't have Ed Phillips this time in fact they have a very weak candidate who will be lucky to get half the votes Ed did. This means whoever the Liberals run in Etobicoke North this time, they'll take this riding now the vote split is gone. Mark this one down for the Liberals.
26/01/03 Harry Hayfield
Email: harryhayfield@btopenworld.com
If the latest opinion polls are to be believed (which gives the Liberals a 6% swing since 1999), then this riding (which if the Conservatives were to lose would rob them of an overall majority) should return a Liberal MPP with a stonking majority (perhaps as high as 8%
21/01/03 Andrew Cox
Email:
Liberal gain. Reasons: 1) In the last election, this was one of those examples of why "strategic voting" doesn't work. Every anti-Tory group imaginable says "Ed Philip is sure to be our best bet," except all the local polls showed a two-way race between the Grits and Tories and the riding had changed substantially with redistribution. (AS hit the nail on the head with his concerns on the 1999 page. I won't repeat them.) This time around, the NDP is out of the game and its a big opportunity for the Grits. 2) John Hastings isn't bringing much to the table. Known at around town as "the Member for Bedrock," Hastings squeaked through twice on the coattails of Mike Harris. Without a landslide, he won't be staying. 3) Etobicoke North Tories have the unfortunate honour of the lowest turnout during the PC leadership vote. Just 143 people could be convinced to spend half a day voting. How many volunteers will Hastings have to knock on doors? 4) Even worse, Hastings backe! d Ernie Eves, but the riding voted for Jim Flaherty. Looks like Hastings doesn't even have a grip on his own riding association. 5) The past Liberal candidate here, Dr. Shafiq Qaadri, came a strong second last time. He's had four years to make in-roads into the multitude of immigrant communities and build roots in neighbourhoods. 6) The Grits are also in discussions with a high profile star candidate, according to the Star. 7) The same article also said bad boy councilor Rob Ford is thinking of taking a run at the nomination. Ford's dad lost the Etobicoke Centre nomination to Chris Stockwell, with lots of angry denounciations on both sides. Expect Stockwell to do everything he can to undermine Ford, whether he gets the nomination or not. Ford is a big Canadian Alliance backer, which would further hinder his chances in this multi-ethnic riding. Also, this "neo-con" hardliner doesn't gel with the Ernie Eves image of "say anything" wet. It would make for an interesting campaig! n message, to say the least.
23/10/02 Burke
Email:
The Liberals should be able to take this riding from the Tories. The Tories only won this riding by 2% the last time. Education has become a hot button issue across Toronto and this diverse riding could easily swing against the Tories. The local MPP is tired and fairly ineffective as a backbencher. If the Liberals field a strong candidate here this should be an easy gain for them.


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