Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Last Update:
3:55 PM 26/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Jean-Marc Lalonde
 Progressive Conservative:
Albert Bourdeau
 New Democratic Party:
Guy Belle-Isle
 Green Party:
Louise Pattington

Incumbent:
 Jean-Marc Lalonde

Federal MP:
 Hon. Don Boudria

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality7204
*JEAN-MARC LALONDE
24568 55.38%
ALAIN LALONDE
17364 39.14%
STEPHANE LANDRY
2007 4.52%
MARY GLASSER
425 0.96%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality22 739
 Don Boudria
31 371 68%
 L. Sebastian Anders
8 632 18.7%
 Ashley O'Kurley
3 942 8.5%
 Guy Belle-Isle
1 877 4.1%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001103922
1996100204
199192158

(1996 census)
Age
0-1929445
20-3929650
40-5925925
60+15170

Avg Household Income
$54403
Labour Participation67.30%
Unemployment8.20%

Canadian Citizen
98.74%
Canadian Born95.31%
Ontario Born76.05%
Immigrant4.64%
Visible Minority1.04%
Aboriginal0.85%

First Language
English34245
French59415

Residence
House83.94%
Apartment14.26%
Owned76.18%
Rented23.82%
Avg Dwelling Value$124178

Education
University11800
College/Trade School20705
Secondary32765

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26/09/03 Craig
Email:
One of the safest Liberal seats, this mostly Francophone suburban/rural riding should easily re-elect Lalonde in a landslide. It appears no other candidates will even see a deposit returning, as the Tory support falls and the NDP is not a factor here. Current prediction: Lalonde 71% (third largest margin of victory in Ontario), Bourdeau 12%, Belle-Isle 9%, Pattington 7%, others 1%.
 09/09/03 MW
Email:
The suburbs of Ottawa are slowly creeping into this riding (some people are going to arrive at their polling place and not recognize the names of the candidates), but redistribution will arrive before enough suburbanites to make a difference.
 26/03/03 I.M. Wright
Email:
The Tories have nominated Albert C. Bourdeau as their candidate. The fact that he was not contested and that GPR Tories struggled to find a candidate goes to show how strong Jean-Marc Lalonde is. He has fought hard for outrageous hydo rates, to keep CHEO and angainst industrial type hog farms. The only thing Tory Bourdeau seems to talk about is Francoscenie, a highly contreversial project that threathens a historic forest. People will give Jean-Marc the nod, undoubtedly.
 02/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The PCs tried hard in 1999, regardless, with a prominent municipal politician; and if they weren't running against an incumbent, they could have done a Brian Coburn and taken this one too--which, of course, would have flabbergasted and appalled everybody who despises the Tories with a vengeance. But, realistically speaking, as long as the incumbent's Liberal, this'll only go Tory if the Grits are reduced to NDP levels. (And the toxins contained within Don Boudria's federal follies aren't likely to drip down into the provincial level, anyway.)
 18/10/02 Burke
Email:
This riding is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province. Mr. LaLonde is locally popular and this riding has been held by the Liberals, both federally and provincially for quite some time. I predict an easy election for Mr. LaLonde.

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